Bring it!

I agree with Jim - although a little early for 5 days out = even the NHC has proven they don't have much of a clue (Fay, Hanna)

When hurricanes don't have shear they can intensify pretty quickly (look at Wilma, Charley, etc) when they have shear, they can also loose strength quickly (aka Gustav)

Interested observer.


Jim, I looked at the most recent models, they do seem to be diverging away from the Gulf. The last round wasn't so sure.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1220546089.jpg

cat 4-5 hurricanes tend to have a short life span
they spin up but seldom stay that strong for long

I think Ike will stay out to sea and go north in the end

....if you guys die can I have your booze and women?

Now I have to stock up on beer before the shelves run dry:(

Gov. Mike Easley has declared a state of emergency for North Carolina, the first step in seeking federal assistance to deal with Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike, if it hits the state.

talked to my sister last nite - she said Baton Rouge is still almost entirely dark from a massive power outage

The point in the Yahoo article re people moving close to the coasts is an excellent one. We would have saved trillions if those areas had restrictions on development.

Another factor - just published - is that large storms are getting larger. Global warming is the most likely factor for this.

Its nothing new its not global warming but I will agree it is a concern due to growing coastal population.

How dare any of use look at a 100 or even 200 or 300 year glimpse of weather patterns and decide that there is global warming. I was taught in 7th grade we were heading for an ice age, everyone was positive of it, that was spot on as well.

I think the word here is cycles.

I have lived in Florida for over 20 years now and 4 years ago was the 1st time I encountered a major hurricane. As I understand it the last time this happened was int he 50's..... was there global warming in the 50's???

YO Einstein - try reading the scientific article first!

your opinion is worth nothing w/o support

Hurricane David in the 70's is still talked about as the epic storm to hit Florida, nothing since, even that small little storm Andrew that hit a small part of Miami can compare to David, so, was there global warming in the 70's???

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_David


There is your support!

Want more?

Major Hurricanes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes

Notice the lack of modern storms in that list?

1 "Labor Day" 1935 892 mbar (hPa)
2 Camille 1969 909 mbar (hPa)
3 Katrina 2005 920 mbar (hPa)
4 Andrew 1992 922 mbar (hPa)
5 "Indianola" 1886 925 mbar (hPa)
6 "Florida Keys" 1919 927 mbar (hPa)
7 "Okeechobee" 1928 929 mbar (hPa)
8 Donna 1960 930 mbar (hPa)
9 Carla 1961 931 mbar (hPa)
10 Hugo 1989 934 mbar (hPa)


If you average the years up it come out to 1954. Was there global warming in 1954 because according to this chart that is the average for the killer huge destructive storms.

There is no global warming, unless you live n Manbearpigs world.

Political/Manbearpig issues aside, Ike at the moment is poised to nail Miami. Should I really consider running away?

Its just weird, I always used to cheer on Blizzards and go out driving in them as an act of defiance against nature, but everyone down here is telling me that I can't go out driving and mocking a cat 3 or above. What's the deal?

Mark,

Check PM's

I offer an option.

Love Jim

I drove in "Killer Tropical Storm Fay" and survived, according to the media I was supposed to die that day. I am ready to drive in Ike next. :D

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hPU9tA00zuI&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hPU9tA00zuI&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

I just love how professional scientists will labor decades to get a highly specialized and technical education, work like dogs for years on a project, get it peer reviewed by other experts and published in Nature, on the top journals anywhere...

then have a bunch of uneducated dweebs disagree with them -- people who lack the IQ to fetch coffee in the morning.

even if they were wrong, they still made a living

I had a scientist tell me it was ostentatious for anyone to look at 50-100 years of weather and think they have a clue.

A scientist told me this while we sat at a greenpeace rally. ;)

The only weather patterns I am concerned about are the ones for the next 40 years of so.

THOSE don't look so good. Before then and after then...I couldn't give a flying...

Remember that Economists are on this earth to make weathermen look good. ;)

Current NHC forecasters use a weighted model to predict the direction and intensity of current storms.

Interesting read here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml