Just checked the 5 day forecast and its not looking good for Miami. If you need to move North (as I have PM;d you) your welcome here. I have a whole house standby generator that even runs my central air.

I am filling the propane tanks this weekend and stocking up on Beer and Steaks. Come on up!!

OF course, climatologists look at millions of years....


but you knew that.... right?

No, I did not know they had weather recording devices 1 million years ago, nor did I know they kept records that long. That is amazing!

They nailed it in the 70's with the ever impending Ice age. Lets be honest here, scientists have no clue what is going on and are taking wild guesses at best. This new "climate change" hysteria is just another cash cow for them to take advantage of.

I remember this scare from when I was in school, and yes it scared me, made me wonder if I would survive to be an adult the way they were dooming and glooming it. Now I realize how irresponsible they all are. It must be nice to be wrong all the time and still make good money. I know I would never have a job if I was wrong all the time.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1220612575.jpg

Same here. If any of you guys want to hop over the the west coast I have 2 extra rooms and a big couch. I'll shoot you my phone# if you need it.

Screw the hurricane, you're tempting ME to come visit.:D

One of my favorite sites:

http://www.bearpawsweather.com/tropical/index.html

Lots of information - and the 5 day forecast is all over the place (as are the models) nobody is sure of where this thing is going at this point.

http://www.thestormtrack.com/tropica.../track5day.png

Looks like you called it. Everyone around here was putting up shutters yesterday and I had to wonder why. I was not making a decision until Sunday and I am still waiting until then. Except every 6 hours that goes by puts this one further south and away from Florida.

Look out Cuba and Key West and then look out New Orleans again. But then again that is 5-7 days away so who knows.


Man, looking at the maps from early Friday really shows how no one has a clue where these things are going to go more than a day or two out.

This site is pretty good too.


http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008

At one point on Friday it was it was coming toward us. 24 hours later and we're safe.

Mother nature's going after Mule?

There is a LOT you don't know. Past climates can be determined from ice cores, vegetation samples, tree-ring width, isotope compositions, sediment composition and others. There is an entire field of science devoted to that study.

The popular article you posted from Time magazine relates to an effect that probably exists, but is being swamped out by other effects that tend to increase temperatures -- such as CO2 release, and likely methane as well.


The hot air generated by people who spout off about things they know about may also be an effect on global temperatures.

One of these days you guys will realize that I'm always right, and you should just agree with me unconditionally :p

O.K. So if its such a "Science" as you put it an I am so stupid, as you put it. Thank you BTW the insults you keep throwing at me are nice, how come we went from global cooling to global warming in just 30 years?

So much has changed in 30 years?

I thought they were looking at "Millions" of years and a blip on the radar, 30 years, takes us from cooling to warming?

Again, they are guessing and haven't got a clue, but at least they get paid to whip everyone up into a tizzy and be wrong all the time.

If we did not have a global crisis they would not have jobs.


Some of us do not buy it and I guess when someone does not agree with the guesses they are stupid. So yes, I am stupid. But at least I get paid to be right all the time. I would be fired if I was wrong all the time.

Being pelted with TS Hanna right now. On a hill so nothing should flood but I lost my DirectTV so no football for me this evening. :( Just hope Ike doesn't come this way :eek:

Hanna is so fast-moving it won't amount to much probably. It'll dump some rain but it'll be long gone within 24 hours. I have relatives in Boston that are getting rained on and some wind, but nothing major.

Ike is another story... That thing could cause serious problems for the southern U.S. coast. Time to go long on crude oil futures methinks...

This is just so much gibberwish. YOur ignorance does not have to continue.

FIRST, recognize that you can separate your policy orientations (or politics) from scientific facts.

Second, take some courses in the basic sciences. One year of physics. Also, 2 years of chemistry would be good. That will cover organic. One year of intro biology (all biology major are required to take 1 year of physics + 2 years of chemistry).

You are then ready for the fun stuff: a semester course in basic Ecology, and as much as you can stand in climatology - probl will want to toss in a geology course - it will be easy after the physics and chemisty

You will want to reinforce that with a few years of mathematics.

The above will not turn you into a PhD - much less a professional scientist, but I guarantee you will be decently educated.... and ready to understand the arguments.

i.e. "not stupid" (at least in this field)

By then you will know not to conflate time scales; you will know the difference between the output of a sophisticated mathematical model (like the ones used to design cars) and "guessing;" you will understand the basis for historical climates and where the holes are in our understanding... and you will be able to craft cogent arguments and to examine methodologies respecting the above.

So genius since you seem to be sooooo educated.

Why Warming to Cooling in 30 years? Super simple question, someone was wrong and who was it? Was it the scientists from 30 years ago, were they the dumb ones or is the the scientists today?

Someone was wrong? Or let me guess, scientists are never wrong just constantly changing their theories?

BTW - This has NOTHING to do with party affiliation and EVERYTHING to do with common sense.

BTW - The ice age thing was being taught as fact in the 70's I remember being taught about it in science class. In schools today they are teaching global warming as fact. My son got extra credit for attending greenpeace rallies last school year where they went on and on about the global warming.

Sorry, I do not buy it and its not about party affiliation, if you paid attention you would know I do not care about parties, this is more about common sense. There is no way some scientist is looking at an ice core and deciding what the exact temperature was 500 years ago they can make an approximation at best.

That is my opinion and I think your stupid for eating all all the bullcrap they are feeding all of us. I cannot wait to hear 30 years from now how we are entering an ice age again.

IF you had paid more attention in "science class" you might have learned that no measurement is ever exact. Nor is an exact measure needed.

I thought I explained this before, and I certainly have in other threads: we appear to be in a long term cooling trend. The effects that cause global warming are increasing much more rapidly and are of greater magnitude than the ones that have been producing cooling over recent time periods.

I don't know who taught you in "science class" and I don't know if it was a high school class or a lower level college course of some sort. But the title you give it does not inspire confidence in the accuracy of information transfer. That is why university science classes are taught by actual scientists. They are supposed to get the facts right, and explain how cogent theories are tested and "proved" or disproved.

It is of no relevance whether you "buy it" or not. We don't do science by consensus. If you are too lazy to educate yourself, then are doomed to live in ignorance.

On the odd chance that you are educable, here is a little something to get you started:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/321/5889/680

I think I am going to start putting the worst meat heads on Ignore. You might be first since some of the most egregious seem to have gone back on their meds recently.

This appears to be a list, not of ALL large storms, but of only those very few that made land fall AND caused significant damage. IT s hard to tell b/c of the lack of information about how the list was compiled. But if so, it conflates numerous factors.

The post I made before it, stated that "large storms are getting larger" NOT that the number of large storms was increasing - which is a quite different thing. The study was published in Nature IIRC, maybe in Science - last week. The interested can go look it up.