Post AIG bailout - the Dow still falls 455 points...
 

Breaking news at CNN

http://www.cnn.com/

Are we done? Or are we "done?" :(

I'm not done buying yet.

True. It's a buyer's market right now. Stock, houses, boats, cars...

I've been thinking about buying some C. Glad I held off today. I usually fall on the cautious side and still feel some pain from 2000-01 but hope I am smart enough to take advantage of this somehow.

I wouldn't buy any of those things right now. Why would you? There is no way any of that is going to go up in price in the next 3 - 6 months. No upside to any of it right now, but SIGNIFICANT chance of big downside.

Knife catching rarely works. It's much better to wait for stabilization, not try to time the very bottom.

Pinarellos, shotguns, ... ;)

Risk takers buy now - they don't wait for stabilization. IMO, psychologically, once YOU think things have stabilized, you've missed your buying opportunity. The guys I know who made a killing in 91-94 started buying early. I know it was risky, and I don't recommend you spend your nest egg etc., but if you're a good investor, you don't spend much time trying to TIME the market.

So, what are you buying?

At the moment, metals - precious.

Am looking for units.

I'm holding off. We have a big bundle of cash right now. Not to sure what to do with it, but I'm thinking of buying some short term CDs. From about 5 different banks......

I ladder cd's - so there's always something maturing, but you go long on the term to get the best rates.

This PARF stuff is gonna fail, I'm certain.

I'd say we're done for a while. How you gonna keep the P outta that?

The hot dog stand in front of the Home Defect is boarded up. No one at the HD either. HD stated today that they were lowering prices. Imagine that, the supposedly discount big box is caught with too high a margin to survive. Think about that for a minute.

It's getting deeper every day in SoCal.

Ammo

+1

And more guns.

Yes, more ammo and more guns! To protect what we still have left.

I guess the loan (bailout) wasn't very well received in the market today.

Let us try WALMART and Sams Club putting stuff on sale!!!I have allready seen that....

My wife and I just bought real estate in Charlotte. Market is down,good deals out there, but has an upside potential. People are still building, believe it or not. Charlotte has a very diversified economy. I have dumped most equities last Sept(07) and have been sitting tight ever since, except a few buying trys that ended badly(equities). At least with real estate, if you own it you can't lose it, and you can live in it(unlike stocks and $ and collectibles), which is a bonus.

Back in Moline on September 6,7,8 Rock Island Auction had an antique gun auction which brought in a record of $12.4M. Guns were HOT....

Little Johns in Anaheim has their auction on Sept 23.....and Julias in Maine has their auction on OCT 8.

We shall see??? In 87 when the markets crashed collectable cars and Art ZOOOMED up in price. It is something people saw as retaining value when other investments crashed and burned.

This time around it is Guns that have been showing continued strength in this economy. I have watched virtually every gun auction in the nation and abroad for the past 3 years. I have been looking for weakness in them for the past year. So far so good.


With the price of GOLD going up $70 to $850 in one day people are fleeing paper based assets (exception is the 3 month Treasurys which have fallen so far in yield that you are paying them interest to buy) and going to a hard asset.

I have a coupla fairly expensive guns in the Julia Auction so we shall see what happens?

Also it is time to start watching the value of the dollar....If it really starts to decline in value...baby that is really bad news...At this point in time with other economies being in trouble the US dollar should remain strong.

WOW just checked the prices realized at the ROCK Island antique gun auction.....a Griffin & Howe BA 22H with a 3500 to 4500 estimate going for $8050.00 Another G&H on Savage 99 with a 3 to 4K estimate going for 9K. A cased 20GA LC Smith Speciality Grade in Case with a 3-6K estimate going for $6750. Many of the other lots were going within range with a bias to the high side of the range.

No, and I bet there are some guys in Washington and New York schitting their pants tonight as a result. Now their "failsafe" of government backing has established precedent of NOT working the way they intended.

Yea, we're so smart with our market manipulation. Riiiiiiight. We've got it all figured out. Riiiiiiight. We can make the markets do whatever we want and offset cyclical variations and legitimate declines by simply outsmarting it with clever policy. Riiiiiiiight.

This is just proof positive of how overvalued the markets really are. The number nobody wants to confront is $1.3 TRILLION. That's the estimate of how much bad mortgages are out there that are going to ultimately default. That's another SIXTEEN $85B AIG bailouts. Yep, hold onto what little cash you have left because the gubmint will be coming to take it soon so they can pay the Fed to pay them off...

This is going to get much much worse before it gets better. Today just proved that you can't escape the Day of Reckoning no matter how much you think you've got it figured out. Nor can you run up the stock market oh, 5,000 points above its equilibrium price or so with "funny money" consumption and then expect to rein it in when it corrects a couple thousand points.

I'm sticking to my end-of-year prediction and saying the DOW is firmly below 10,000. The retail numbers for this coming holiday season are going to be downright awful and I expect quite a few of them will go under when they don't make their year's numbers based on holiday sales. Early next year will be a bloodbath in that sector. Then (hopefully) we'll start to see a stabilization at more sane levels - with continued declines in housing of course. Housing has at least another 25% to fall. More in some places.