Credit where due, TABS:

[speeder]

About 2-3 months ago, Tabs started a thread predicting that the stock market would crash in the near future. Not trend downwards, but crash. I think that there was a supporting article or link, can someone find that thread and post a link to it here? The problem searching is that he starts so many threads. I got dizzy looking.

I could not get anyone to listen at the time, but I believed him.

[M.D. Holloway]

The more shots you take at the basket, the more will go in. TABS wasn't alone in his prediction, he was just the most verbal.

[competentone]

Originally Posted by speeder

About 2-3 months ago, Tabs started a thread predicting that the stock market would crash in the near future. Not trend downwards, but crash. I think that there was a supporting article or link, can someone find that thread and post a link to it here? The problem searching is that he starts so many threads. I got dizzy looking.

I could not get anyone to listen at the time, but I believed him.

Tabs predicted a crash 2-3 months ago?

In September of 2007 (that's over a year ago), when Country Wide Financial was in trouble, "turbo6bar" posted:

CFC down 14% in after-hours trading.

Mercy, this meltdown is incredible. Freakin' unbelievable.

To which I replied:

You ain't seen nothing yet!

Wait until the end of 2008.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/358165-sold-my-short-positions-banking-stocks-today-post3419155.html#post3419155

The mortgage resets taking place in the second half of 2008 is resulting in massive defaults which is tanking the financial industry, which is freezing the credit markets, which is putting the downward pressure on the stock market.

There is no sort of "magic" involved in making the forecast; just an understanding of what is happening in the economy and markets.

[Hugh R]

Wish I'd acted, I listened and comprehended, but didn't act. I'd have kept the equivalent of a new Aston Martin.

[legion]

I really didn't think we'd see the crisis play out as it has.

I'd been predicting the decline in RE for years, but I didn't think through what that really meant.

[Moses]

Originally Posted by LubeMaster77

The more shots you take at the basket, the more will go in. TABS wasn't alone in his prediction, he was just the most verbal.

Even a broken watch is right twice a day.

[sketchers356]

Originally Posted by moses

even a broken watch is right twice a day.

+1

[svandamme]

i predicted this long time ago, well before Tabs did

US $ replaced by the Euro

11-05-2007, 09:28 PM

Originally Posted by svandamme

the 40% under value is not relative to just the USD
it's relative to all currencies, including the EURO, the Brittish pound, and others


so i'de say it's not just that alone that's dragging down the USD



i'm no economist, but my take is that free market economy , is doomed to fail
it's a greedy cesspool of low accountability respective to nations and the people in those nations... rich getting richer, sure, that's not new
but the current business methods are not sustainable
look at wallmart, dumping prices on everything, shaving every bit of cost in it's stores, not the least of it the employees... driving real "american" business , out of business with unbeatable tactics

and they can do it , because the consumer likes to buy lot's of cheap stuff rather then just the good quality stuff they really need

so what's happening with the US, if all businesses are finished off by wallmart like competition? eg, bottom dollar wages, chinese import products

all you get, is more unemployment
more debt
bigger gap between rich and poor and fewer inbetweens

all this , because companies these days, only manage and run based on delivering results to shareholders, nobody cares anymore about sustaining the local business, and the local employees

that's no part of free economy, and that's why it will not last
something has got to give

in history there has always been trade
and until the last hundred or so years, trade has always been enforced by military power

not anymore, sure the military still influences economies these days
but it is no longer a parallel partnership

all you get now, is inflation, growth, more, more more
but nothing more is added to the mix, there are no new conquests of territory, there are very few places left to start mining
just increased efficiency, every year

tell me
how much better can efficiency get, till it hits a ceiling?
can we get to 120% and keep going?

how many western countries, could ( if they wanted to ) shut down their borders and feed it's civilians with own produce? no more imports of essential supplies....?

now everybody rates economies on GDP surplus and deficit
if you sell more then you buy, you're doing good

but that doesn't mean you can take care of your peoples

in the future, i'm sure the true rating will be "who can take care of his own"
and GDP surplus, will be like in the old days, who can actually sell things he has in surplus, after all things locally are taken care off

those who fail, will have instability, internal struggles, violence, famine, disease, look at Africa

rough times ahead, sooner or later, doodoo will hit the fan, one way or another

the 2000 internet bubble was just a small scale example of what really is going to happen with the free market as a whole...

[Jim Richards]

I successfully predicted yesterday's weather.

[avi8torny]

I have reliable information that Jesus is coming back one day and none of this will matter.

[billyboy]

I selling all the stock now and buying spoons.

[cstreit]

I predict the market will recover at some point. I also predict the sun will rise again tomorrow morning. (props to the tabby anyway)

[tabs]

After 911 I was writing that a Great Depression was very possible and that it would be caused by a CRISIS OF LIQUIDITY>>or in other words a run on the bank.

Now for a mea culpa, I thought it would be caused by a MAJOR acto f terrorism...such as an American City going up in smoke. Little did I realize that it would be our own greed helped by the cracks that 911 caused in our financail system (low interest rate environment).

Well I go the BIG half right..we have crashed and it could be a Great Depression.

[tabs]

WHAT DO YOU MEAN IT IS NOT MAGIC....

TABS the Fakir....Crystal Ball Gazing, Tarot Cards Played, Palmistry, Astronomy, Head Bumps read (phrenology), Ouija Boarding and Tea Leaf reading. Seances extra! I ain't talkin to NO dead fkers for free!