Unless you are an insider, the stock market is for suckers.

This is a "day-traders" wet dream. Big swings are the name of the game. I suspect there will be many more.

Yeah, it kinda sucks, doesn`t it? I had only saved about $200k, and it is going away much faster than the eight years it took me to save. I don`t think this retirement system is really safe. Too bad social security will be bankrupt when I retire. Wait, maybe the govt. could bail this out? Nah, too late, they could have, but they are bailing Wall Street instead. Oh well, I`ll figure something out...

Aurel

I once dropped a rock in the water
while thinking of my uncle's daughter
and the waves did spread out oh so pretty
that I instantly wrote down a ditty
that lifted me quite up in spirits
'til my feet both came loose from the stirups
and my uncle appeared (he's a psychic)
and my face went and twitched in a big tic
then the standing waves came back upon me
and the fear made me feel like I might pee
but my uncle then stepped in and saved me
my uncle named Sam who's so scary
that thoughts of his daughter were nary
and the dream passed away and I floundered
all gasping and sucking up pond scum
(was never forewarned by me old mum}
And wishing I had but just one toke
realized that indeed I was dead broke.

It's been 3 months, time for the quarterly "my area of phx has gone up in value" post.

snowman's got some big shoes to fill.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1223957765.jpg

My question is: Are house prices going to fall, or is that green line going rise up and meet them? All the cash that has been injected into the system might just cause that green line to rise.

We also have to take into account how the green line has been calculated. If that is the government # I have some serious doubts as to its validity.

i disagree entirely - go look at value line in your local library -- choose a basket of their 1 ranked stocks -- review every 3 months -- you will be very happy in 10 years

IF you are buying/selling everyday, then yes that is for fools

So where would you recommend putting money for a decent return on one's investment?

Bank, CD's, real estate!

Real estate.

Just look around you. How many people do you know, really, who have gotten rich from stocks?

Then for real estate.

$10,000 invested in the S & P 500 would be worth roughly $10,000 today.

IMO it's very difficult to get a really good return in the stock market over time. I know here in the fantasy world of PPOT, where everyone's house only goes up in value and "only an idiot "can't get consistent 25% returns in the stock market, it's great, but I'm talking about the real world. When, for example, you take a 30% hit on a stock, it takes a lot of gains to make that up.

Even the pros who do it for a living, every day, have a hard time beating the S&P. It's just not that easy.

the flaw in your reasoning is that the S&P goes up - reliably - over time

or are you saying that most would be better off in a stock mutual fund than in indiv. stocks??? if so, your arg. is not very clear, but I'd agree with it

you did not specify a time period - if you will look at some time series you will see the obvious, which I stated above

I do agree most would be better off with mutual funds, rather than trying to pick individual stocks.

But that's not saying much.

Over time, most mutual funds don't even beat the S&P 500.

You mentioned 10 years, let's go with that.

Or the DJIA. No-load index funds are the way to go.

I think very few people, if they are being honest, average 8% return on stock investments over long periods of time.

yes, no load and low costs

some managers are exceptional and will beat the indexes time after time -- and some of those come cheap

will danoff, joel tillinghast at fidelity; the folks that run cap opp and prime cap; healthcare at vanguard

top mgrs can cut losses in down markets rel to an index fund

otherwise do an index fund - maybe russell over s&p

keep some bond funds and some cash


do not forget the super high transaction costs for RE - it is often tax adv'd tho

cal now has tax free bonds for you guys too

re 8% - that is reasonable -- we need to be sure we are all talking about raw returns or infl. adjusted ones

cash is guaranteed to lose value to infl.; bonds about stay even; stocks do better

talking about "getting rich" worries me - you can do it slowly with stocks or you can do it faster in a high salary profession

trying to 'get rich' with stocks tho usually means a lot of risk and a bad fall

I believe you can attain a great nestegg with stocks or real estate, but real estate certainly has advantages for the person with the right mix of skills and attitude. I really have not done great in the stock market since the 2000 bust. I took a lesson away, though. Don't fall for bubbles. My German blood and engineer brain loathes loss of control. I prefer being conservative and having full knowledge and control. It's hard for me to attain the level of control with stocks vs hard real estate.

the, I found an almost 'too good to be true' piece of real estate. It's a laundrymat with cap rate of 16 (actual 2007 net income/current asking price). The timing isn't right, but gosh, this could be the one deal that puts me into semi-retirement (I don't ever want to retire).