The region promises to remain a terrorist hotbed for years to come. In the wordy recently released document Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World from the NIC, they make the connection that a youth bulge without employment equals a hotbed for radical groups.

And as for the future:

“The current youth bulges in the Maghreb states, Turkey, Lebanon, and Iran will diminish rapidly but those in the West Bank/Gaza, Iraq, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and adjacent Afghanistan and Pakistan will persist through 2025. Unless employment conditions change dramatically, youth in weak states will continue to go elsewhere—externalizing volatility and violence.”

Here’s an interesting map:

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1227993749.jpg

Note the burnt orange areas on the 2005 map. It is not a coincidence that these areas are the nurseries of terrorism.

Source: National Intelligence Council

An interesting read by the way.

Ian

Perhaps Pakistan's new government will be forced to crack down on the country's radical groups, including those with ties to the security forces. Would be interesting to see if the govt is strong enough to actually do that, and how it affects the govt and army's actions on the Afghanistan border.

We will see, but Pakistan appears unruleable(?) due to it's tribal demography.

Another quote from the above:

"The future of Pakistan is a wildcard in considering the trajectory of neighboring Afghanistan [tribalism]. Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier Province and tribal areas probably will continue to be poorly governed and the source or supporter of cross-border instability. If Pakistan is unable to hold together until 2025, a broader coalescence of Pashtun tribes is likely to emerge and act together to erase the Durand Line [present disputed border with Afghanistan] maximizing Pashtun space at the expense of Punjabis in Pakistan and Tajiks and others in Afghanistan. Alternatively, the Taliban and other Islamist activists might prove able to overawe at least some tribal politics."

Ian

Curious - suppose 10 to 30 terrorists with automatic rifles and grenades had machine-gunned and taken over some top hotels and other targets in a large American city - say New York or LA - and were believed to be ransacking the buildings and killing more people as they went.

How long would it take for a heavily armed police or SWAT or military response? Not the first squad car - I mean an organized counter-attack by lots of guys w/ AR-15s, stun grenades, and body armour.

I'm thinking 4 to 6 hours? Too optimistic?

This will be seen only after some time has passed and hopefully the news media and their biased reporting goes away.

Am sure that everyone will feel "really safe" in a few months when Hussain takes the office. Yea right...

Wonder why the gun shops are out of certain models of weapons and gun shows are selling out of ammo and powder?

Ladies and gentlemen, the new admin coming into power on 20 Jan does not have a clue what they have on their plate, and its our lives and security that they are now in charge of securing. If you do not believe in God, you will and the sooner you start praying the better.

A good team could do it in this time frame, but you are not talking about the "A" team here.

India is ok but they are still the "3 stooges" at most things and their special warfare teams are terrible. Pakistan is even worse. Anyone who has spent time there knows what I mean and am not surprised that it took days to end this where-as a good SWAT team in most US cities would have put this down in several hours.

Also, "right to carry" is not done in this part of the world. Wonder what would have happened had this been tried in Texas or Arizona? They would have still killed people but with the public carrying a sidearm in most areas am sure that the lost of life would have been 10% of what happened here.

This is a prime example of what is going to be our future in places where the public is disarmed and they have to wait for the police to protect them. A normal guy with a .45 auto on his hip could have brought several of these jerks down easily. They were betting on their victims being un-armed, and they were right.

I'm glad I'm not traveling like I used to...

There is no border. There are lines drawn on maps and in some people's minds there is a border.

This is the problem:

http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/...tun-ethnic.jpg

+1. The same applies to the area right of that map too (Iraq, etc.) from my perspective.