Football odds

[BeyGon]

Since my Super Bowl pool pick came out 8/5 on both teams, I know, just really lucky, I am wondering where to find the mathematical odds of a football game ending in anything 8 to 5. Anyone know?

[pwd72s]

a touchtown with missed extra point, then a safety---8

a field goal then a safety---5

Rots a Ruck...

[TerryH]

Hope for lots of scoring... 35-28

[m21sniper]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

a touchtown with missed extra point, then a safety---

2 fg's and a safety would also give you 8. The only way to get 5 is a FG and safety.

[71T Targa]

I think my odds are better. I got P4 A1, P3 A7, P7 A0, P1 A5, and P6 A8.

I think my P7 A0 is going to pay. :-)

[rick-l]

Here is a start. If you go to http://saliu.com/NFL-Schedule.html and extract the last digit of the scores in the 2008 season this is the distribution.

0 happened in 92 out of 512 scores, 4 happened 86 out of 512 etc.

8 and 5 don't look good but there are worse.

[why does my html table have so much blank space before it?]

Bin	Frequency	Cumulative %	Bin	Frequency	Cumulative %
0	92	17.97%	0	92	17.97%
1	55	28.71%	4	86	34.77%
2	16	31.84%	7	75	49.41%
3	66	44.73%	3	66	62.30%
4	86	61.52%	1	55	73.05%
5	18	65.04%	6	42	81.25%
6	42	73.24%	8	31	87.30%
7	75	87.89%	9	31	93.36%
8	31	93.95%	5	18	96.88%
9	31	100.00%	2	16	100.00%
More	0	100.00%	More	0	100.00%

[rick-l]

Here is one way to look at it based on the previous assumptions the scores of each team are independant and based on the gathered statistics.

note that p(P3 A7) = p(P7 A3). The sum of the table = 1. This also predicts that the most common score should be x0 - x0 and that is clearly not the case.

So based on this your A8 P5 ticket along with your P8 A5 ticket (0.0021 + 0.0021 = 0.0043) or 1 out of 235

Arz\Pit	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
0	0.0323	0.0193	0.0056	0.0232	0.0302	0.0063	0.0147	0.0263	0.0109	0.0109
1	0.0193	0.0115	0.0034	0.0138	0.0180	0.0038	0.0088	0.0157	0.0065	0.0065
2	0.0056	0.0034	0.0010	0.0040	0.0052	0.0011	0.0026	0.0046	0.0019	0.0019
3	0.0232	0.0138	0.0040	0.0166	0.0217	0.0045	0.0106	0.0189	0.0078	0.0078
4	0.0302	0.0180	0.0052	0.0217	0.0282	0.0059	0.0138	0.0246	0.0102	0.0102
5	0.0063	0.0038	0.0011	0.0045	0.0059	0.0012	0.0029	0.0051	0.0021	0.0021
6	0.0147	0.0088	0.0026	0.0106	0.0138	0.0029	0.0067	0.0120	0.0050	0.0050
7	0.0263	0.0157	0.0046	0.0189	0.0246	0.0051	0.0120	0.0215	0.0089	0.0089
8	0.0109	0.0065	0.0019	0.0078	0.0102	0.0021	0.0050	0.0089	0.0037	0.0037
9	0.0109	0.0065	0.0019	0.0078	0.0102	0.0021	0.0050	0.0089	0.0037	0.0037

[rick-l]

Here is the histogram of the scores of the 256 games played in the 2008 season. This is fun.

8 5 and 5 8 only happend 4 times.

Home\Away	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
0	7	5	4	8	9	0	5	8	1	1
1	3	2	1	1	10	0	0	1	3	0
2	0	4	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0
3	10	4	0	3	3	1	4	9	3	2
4	8	6	0	5	5	2	1	9	2	3
5	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	1	1
6	2	2	1	2	4	4	2	4	0	1
7	7	6	0	3	5	0	5	4	2	2
8	4	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	2	2
9	3	3	0	3	5	0	1	2	2	0

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