Secrets of air fare pricing - anybody have sources?

[kevin993]

Does anybody have any sources (books, papers, websites) that provide a little "behind the scenes" on how airplane ticket prices are set? I know that there are vast differences depending on when you buy, whether you're using miles/upgrades, etc. and I know the airlines have complex formulas to help maximize their profit opportunities. I just haven't seen anything that really tries to de-mysify and explain the process a little bit.

Thanks,
Kevin

[PorscheGAL]

It's a secret for a reason. I registered on travelocity.com and they send emails when the price to the cities I want to travel drop below a certain dollar amount.

[Dantilla]

Magic 8 ball.

[imcarthur]

If it is anywhere, it will be at flyertalk. That is the sight for the points/programs/frequent flyer obsessed.

Ian

[GDSOB]

Delta is essentially a monopoly at at Cincinnati and historically one of the highest fares in the country. They charge as much as possible until a lower cost carrier sets up shop, then they lower the prices to put drive the new carrier out of the competing routes. Recently, the numbnuts figured out that a significant number of flyers are going to neighboring cities to fly due to the high prices and have lowered fares to get travelers back to CVG.

I ain't coming back and avoid Delta like the plague.

[Embraer]

depends when you book it. if you book too far in advance, they assume you're traveling for fun, and price isn't an issue. if you book little in advance, they'll assume it's a "gotta have it" situation and stab you.

try using expedia and booking 18-30 days in advance. try flying out on a tuesday. if you plan on flying on a business route (like our delta shuttle) mondays and fridays are probably more expensive.

also, if you're spur of the moment, you might be able to get a last minute deal by buying the ticket at the customer service counter right before the flight. if the load factors are low, a cheap seat is better than an empty seat for the airline. ive seen some pax get pretty good deals as i was waiting in line to list myself.

[masraum]

I can tell you something that I have experienced and other people have experienced as well and my assumptions based on what I've experienced.

I've been looking for flights before for trips, sometimes a few weeks out, sometimes a week out. I've checked continental.com and then checked moving the trip back and forth a few days to see what that does to the prices. After checking for 20 or 30 minutes, I've seen the prices go up $50-100. I've had a travel agent see the same behavior and some other folks have confirmed the behavior after I mentioned it. I think that they keep track of "interest" in a flight and will adjust their prices accordingly. Bastards.

[Gogar]

One of the main ticket-booking websites (Sorry I can't remember which) has a "pricing trends" graph section that is pretty neat.

One thing I just casually notice (I fly a few weekends a month) is prices are usually lowest from 1 month-15 days out. There's always a big jump up in price at 14 days out.

[Don Plumley]

If you are trying to find the lowest fare, put your dates into farecast (apparently recently purchased by MS), it will send you daily updates and let you know if it thinks the fare is trending up or down. It also compares prices from the major sites against the airline (which is usually a couple of bucks cheaper).

Yield management and pricing are the secret sauce of the large airlines. Yield management is all about optimizing prices to stimulate demand and maximize revenue for each flight. Each empty seat is lost revenue, but underpricing seats is lost opportunity.

What throws a monkey wrench into the model is competitive behavior. As pointed out earlier, airlines will use predatory pricing to force competitors out of lucrative markets. Often you will see one major airline increase prices or fees, and if the competitors don't match, they will quietly reverse those increases. This article is pretty simplistic, but is a start.

[Monza_dh]

Try Johnny Jett and the consolidator sites listed:

http://www.johnnyjet.com/bookingbuddy/TravelDeals.asp

[John_AZ]

Originally Posted by kevin993

Does anybody have any sources (books, papers, websites) that provide a little "behind the scenes" on how airplane ticket prices are set? I know that there are vast differences depending on when you buy, whether you're using miles/upgrades, etc. and I know the airlines have complex formulas to help maximize their profit opportunities. I just haven't seen anything that really tries to de-mysify and explain the process a little bit.

Thanks,
Kevin

www.flyertalk.com as mentioned. Click on the top bar for "Forums". The frequent flier members post flight sales and I also use it for hotels. example-Hilton hotels had a 50% off sale on weekends.

If you want somewhat professional help and usually lower fares you could become a member (absolutely no affiliation or recommendation) of:
http://www.bestfares.com/amember/signup.php. Travel agents are DOA.
Airline consolidators are risky bets for future flight plans.

I am on multiple sites and this is one way to research if you have the time.

If you narrow down your destination and planned dates, there may be reasons you are frustrated with the pricing. Let us know.

EDIT: Maybe to answer you original Q:http://farecast.live.com/?

Another:http://www.airfarewatchdog.com/

GL
John_AZ

[legion]

What is the secret to airline pricing?

Astro glide and Novocaine, after that I hardly notice the price.