The Alternative Scenario

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The scenario that I have been postulating is that if and when the USD collapses, it creates a financial and economic tsunami which collapses the world economy. Just the Global security implications indicate chaos. The basis of my psotulation is that the US political leadership can not break the cycle of deficit spending and that eventually the debts will come home to roost...at roughly 63T USD that is a lot of chickens to come home.

However the conventional wisedom is that there will be no USD collapse nor world economic tsunami. Every sober economist, businessman and foreign leader recognizes that the US defict spending and debt levels are simply unsustainable.

The Chinese in paticular have been creating trading partners and business alliances around the world all to lessen their exposure to the US financial apron strings. China is now Brazils largest trading partner and is set to become the 5th largest economy in the world with a decade or so. Brazils credit rating is superior to that of Germanys. Brazil is a resource rich country that is begining to industrialize and sends the great bulk of her resources to China. Further China has been building trading alliances in Africa and with Iran.

So one might conclude that there is a great transfer of wealth from Europe and the USA to the emerging markets in Asia, South America and some extent to Africa. Thus the alternate scenario which will take some time to accomplish is to isolate the the damage that a collapse of the USD can do t the Global Economy. In this case the world survives perhaps not unscathed but still intact to carry on and thrive while the US does whatever. In this case Western Civilization would be then eclispsed by an Asian or perhaps pan Globalism.

The only issue to resolve in this brave new order is who then guarntees Global Security? Who is going to be willing to pay the price of being the Policeman to the World?

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No one is willing to pay the price, and no one will have to. There will be no great meltdown. There will be no massive financial disaster (no worse than what we are now coming accustomed to that is.)

It just won't get better.

I theorize that the world is going to become deadlocked in the s***tiness that it is in now, sustaining at these levels, for the next 50-80 years. Social and political systems will not further decline, but society and technological advancement will no longer progress further.


Welcome to a conservative's dream.

[Aurel]

Alternative scenario: on the 11th, Iran sends a nuke to Israel. Israel replies with a rain of nukes on Iran. USA joins. Russia sides with Iran and declares war to the USA. China sides with Russia. Europe sides with USA. Nukes start flying all over the place. 10 days later, we are back to neanderthal age, with cancer growing under the brunt skin of the survivors. Economy, what economy?

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Originally Posted by Aurel

Alternative scenario: on the 11th, Iran sends a nuke to Israel. Israel replies with a rain of nukes on Iran. USA joins. Russia sides with Iran and declares war to the USA. China sides with Russia. Europe sides with USA. Nukes start flying all over the place. 10 days later, we are back to neanderthal age, with cancer growing under the brunt skin of the survivors. Economy, what economy?

I woulda thought a Frog would be up on his history...maybe you slept during those classes....you should know from history that there is NO LOVE between Russia and Iran...never has bin, as the Russian have always had their eye on taking Iranian territory.

You should know from recent history that the Islamic revolution is anathema to the Russians..that the Iranian revolution was part of the reason they invaded Afghanistan back in the 80's. The Russians have long lived in fear of an Islamic jihad in their own territory.