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It’s 2017. The U.S. government runs the national communication GRID (Government-Run Information Distributor), comprised of the country’s fiber optics, cables, and radio links. Access to the GRID is open to all, on an equal basis, for any application and any content. Most of the population now creates and shares media of all kinds—what their productions lack in polish and sophistication, they make up in imagination.

Thanks to the government-run GRID, there no longer is a divide between urban and rural areas. The open access GRID has ushered in the era of micro-politics: every conceivable constituency can propose any initiative at any time, and set up a virtual debate space, and e-voting mechanisms.

Neutral Net was set in motion in 1983, when the FCC forced the local phone companies to let all eEnhanced sService pProviders use their wires for free. Within a few years, thousands of Internet Service ProvidersISPs jumped at the chance to offer new services without the need to invest in costly networks. With the release of the Mosaic Internet browser in 1993, a new mass medium was born. Soon after, in 1995, DSL and cable modems turned the old phone and cable television networks into broadband always-on information networks.

During the next ten years, a multitude of innovators built upon the open Internet to offer new communication services that radically transformed people’s ability to create, share and access information.

In our scenario, in September 2010 the U.S. Congress decided it essential to preserve the Internet’s openness. Strict rules forbid all network owners, telephone, cellular, and cable alike, to discriminate among users. They are not allowed to favor any traffic, nor to charge different fees for different users or different applications.

Anybody can now provide any communication service over the carriers’ networks. Wal-Mart introduces low-cost “WAL-Media”: their branded combination of wired and wireless Internet access, voice and text communication, and film and video distribution.

In the next few years, amateur production of content explodes. YouTube and MySpace garner audiences that far surpass those of traditional television channels. Blogs have now replaced newspapers as most people’s primary source of news. The Net supports a vibrant public sphere in which all constituencies find a voice, a virtual town hall, and viral tools to mobilize voters and make their voices heard.

To sort through this massive amount of news, debates, games, music, video, and films, users rely on each other. Social filters, recommendation engines, and distributed online marketplaces allow them to find, discover, rank, and select materials that match their passions.

Every device on the network is a server, whether in homes, public places, small businesses, or civic organizations. They support peer-to-peerP2P communication tools;, distribute user-produced stories, songs, and videos; and, host collaborative spaces that bring together families, workgroups, clubs, churches, or citizens.

A growing number of cities build their own Wi-Fi and fiber networks to foster greater civic Internet use. However, funding for professionally-produced premium content starts to decline, partly because it is impossible to guarantee the network performance that would allow optimum delivery of that content and, partly because P2P distribution of pirated content proliferates (it is hard to maintain control over IP intellectual property now that a multitude of service providers operate over the networks).

By 2012, network owners are unable to raise funds to upgrade their networks. Verizon discontinues FiOS, and AT&T abandons project Lightspeed. Cellular networks never fully upgrade to 3G. The network owners decide to become pure bit -carriers, scale down their production and programming operations, and concentrate instead in on cutting their costs down to a minimum, retaining only skeleton maintenance crews.

Meanwhile, although content from millions of amateur sources is now available, Hollywood loses its pre-eminence as the world’s main center of content production. Instead, big-budget entertainment is now produced in countries like China, France, and India, where the network owners keep tight control over who distributes what, and can thus guarantee protection of their IPintellectual property.

By 2014, investment in the U.S. network infrastructure has now fallen so low that its derelict state resembles that of the nation’s bridges and roads. To ward off catastrophic failure, the U.S. government takes over all communication networks, consolidating them into the Government-Run Information Distributor (GRID). A new tax on advertising is created to fund the GRID.

By 2017, the GRID provides uniform Net access throughout the U.S. territory. The nation ranks a weak 29th twenty-ninth in the OECD’s assessment of broadband performance, but a dynamic community of users constantly invents new ways to squeeze extra bits out of the country’s infrastructure.

U.S. elites are dissatisfied with the poor performance of the national GRID. They live in tele-parks, the new gated communities, which tend to congregate in border -cities and ports, where they get easy access to foreign network head-ends and submarine high-capacity fiber.

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In the year 2017, two huge TCNOs control broadband Internet access throughout the United States. Each TCNO has its own content affiliates who provide online entertainment, sports, games, and information to the consuming public. Their operational motto is “we create, you enjoy.”

The path to TCNOtopia began in 1969, when the first bits sped across a new computer network funded by the U.S. Department of Defense. Soon the elements of what would become the Internet were in place: an open architecture where users innovate at the edges of the network and E2E communications with no gatekeeper inside the network core, all of it riding on top of the nation’s phone network, providing little compensation to the telcos who had built that infrastructure. In fact, the Internet stands in sharp contrast to telephone and cable visions, which place intelligence, control, and innovation inside the network.

By 2007, the TCNOs provide more than 96% of residential broadband connections. But most of the real profits are made by firms who use the TCNO networks, such as Microsoft, Amazon.com, Google, Yahoo!, eBay, and Disney. Verizon and AT&T fight back with Internet television, offering hundreds of channels and thousands of hours of on-demand programs. Like the cable companies, they want to choose the content they deliver over their broadband pipes and not simply act as common carriers. AT&T’s CEO declares that Internet content providers will have to pay extra for fast broadband delivery.

In reaction, content providers join with consumer groups to persuade Congress to preserve network neutrality. But they get a chilly reception in Washington. Instead, Congress gives telcos authority to freely offer Internet programming and decide what traffic gets priority within their network.

2010: Based on the early success of Wi-Fi in Philadelphia and San Francisco, Google launches broadband wireless nationwide in partnership with local municipalities.

Verizon and AT&T, followed by the cable operators, offer contracts to Sony, Fox, Disney, and others for fast-lane Internet delivery of their online games, movies, video, and other content. Those who choose not to pay must accept standard delivery. This slow lane is where user experimentation is allowed, the only option for user-run servers, and P2P and other applications unaffiliated with the carriers. To enforce the separation, the TCNOs now scan all data packets. Customer contracts authorize carriers to screen for viruses, spam, copyright violations, and content of interest to government agencies. These contracts also limit the bits users can upload without paying substantially higher fees.

2011: Most large content providers are enthusiastic about fast-lane delivery. They can now charge higher fees for premium media experiences. But some, like Google and Microsoft, mount court challenges to packet scanning and prioritization as violations of users’ privacy rights and of network operators’ obligations to provide common carrier services.

2012: Flush with cash from content providers, TCNOs accelerate investment in fiber infrastructure and in-network innovations to achieve high performance. Dozens of new services, such as online multiplayer sports and games, become wildly popular. With full control over individual data streams, the carriers can craft compelling multimedia experiences for their customers. TCNO interface equipment in the home also optimizes the user experience, while preventing unauthorized copying of content or the bypassing of advertising messages.

Meanwhile, Google’s broadband wireless buildout has achieved initial success with four million subscribers in twenty-eight cities. However, security and reliability concerns arise after hacker attacks disable some fifteen thousand wireless-enabled computers in Chicago and Los Angeles. The TCNOs effectively use this security failure in their broadband marketing campaigns.

2014: The U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of the TCNOs’ right to scan data packets and prioritize Internet traffic. The decision cites the need to ensure network reliability and protect customers from hacker-induced harm.

2016: The merger of Comcast and Time Warner creates a behemoth controlling 90 percent of the U.S. cable market and 60 percent of all broadband connections.

After reporting billion dollar losses, Googlezon (formed by the recent merger of Google and Amazon.com) abandons its municipal wireless partnerships. Some cities vow to keep their networks on the air, but it appears an uphill struggle against the dominance of TCNO broadband.

2017: Determining that only increased scale can compete effectively with Comcast Time Warner, the Justice Department approves the merger of AT&T and Verizon. The broadband duopoly has no serious rivals. It has brought affordable broadband to 85 percent of U.S. households, who love the network innovations that protect against spam and viruses, the e-sports leagues, and the high-definition entertainment they receive from TCNO content affiliates.

Political expression online is encouraged within the established political structure—primarily through the two dominant national parties that have negotiated fast-lane delivery for their candidates and issue messages. Other political organizations and civic groups must negotiate ad hoc arrangements, and few have the financial resources to assure fast lane delivery of their messages.

Still, some academics, artists, and other dissidents bemoan the loss of amateur content production and collaborative activity that flowed over the Internet in the early-twenty-first century. TCNO restrictions have virtually eliminated P2P communication among residential broadband users for content distribution, collaborative work, or social and political organization. Online distribution and collaboration are channeled through TCNO-controlled servers and routers. As a consequence, Internet content and applications now conform closely to established consumer tastes and traditional values. It is nearly impossible for an innovator that is unaffiliated with the TCNOs to gain a sizable Internet audience in the United States

But perhaps another eBay, Napster, Yahoo!, Amazon.com or Google is ready to emerge out of the competitive chaos in India or Brazil.