Aothernother Fine Mess Waye Has Gotten Himself Into
 

Hmmm I do recall Wayne decided to pull his investment in the Stock Market about a month ago. The SP500 was at 1045 at the time. Since then the Stock Market has done NOTHING BUT GO UP...Today the SP 500 CLOSED at 1148...

I also recall stating at the time that the SP 500 at 1040 was it's support level and thus represented a bottom of the trading range...Well the Market has blown through the upper end of the trading range and is poised to go even higher.

Now why is this....Simply the M2 supply has been increasing..and that money has to go somewhere...

On Friday morning I was listening to a Mr Tepper of the Appaloosa Group who has 12.4B under management...and has a history of making 20% + ROI...He is Bullish for 2 reasons...The economy will get better on its own OR the Fed will institute QE2..which in affect is called printing money...Either way that liquidity has to go somewhere...and that somewhere is the Stock Market..

Forget about Wayne! How am I making out? :confused:

When someone cashes in their chips while they are ahead and walks away with some cash, doesn't qualify as a "mess" in my book. Perhaps this was part of a portfolio rebalancing strategy...exit equities, enter Porsche 962.

Realized vs unrealized gains (or losses). I like my gains realized and my losses unrealized...

When all the Smart folks are saying stay in; that is the time to get out...:eek::eek:

i dont think the 962 is an "investment". actually its worse than a boat(hole in water you sink money into). with ANY racecar you need to be realistic and understand REALITY!


1) racing is a loss from day 1. unless of course you win. and even then since its vintage racing you'll be lucky if the purse pays for your gas for the race let alone your mcdonalds tab for your crew.

2) as far as the IRS is concerned for a race car to be a write off you must be professionally racing with ACTIVE SPONSORS!

3) unless you get a full ride sponsorship, well let the money tree start dropping benjamins.

4) the IRS demands a receipt for every damn penny spent on a racey car.

5) the IRS LOVES AN AUDIT on racey cars(ask me how i know???)

6) the reality of any race car is its gonna send your wallet through the wash/spin cycle so fast and hard no matter who the hell you are or how many pesos ya got.

7) the IRS aint STOO-PID and if you state you are "professionally" racing, you better be running a series and have documentation to that effect. showing up at (1) race and writing off a full year of parts,mcdonalds,hotels,fuel AINT GONNA GET IT!

8) as some "anti-dee-vorce" insurance, just give wifey credit card and some vodka each week and tell her to go on a drunken spending spree, because thats what YOU ARE DOING with a race car.

9) have a damn good body shop available 24/7/365 you are gonna need it sooner or later.

10) once you WIN 1st place for the 1st time, you are HOOKED and the symptoms get worse by the minute, and the visa card orders for parts escalate to the moon. this is the TERMINAL/ACUTE STAGE.



the only way you will EVER be anything racing is own a shop that is full service on whatever your racing, check "professional racing" on IRS page, have a hell of a lot of "friends" helping you for dirt cheap, a wad of BENJAMINS a mile thick,................




and not give a damn ONE IOTA what happens to the car and not think of the massive infusion of dollars into it ONE IOTA!



for the very moment YOU THINK about the DOLLARS "invested"...................YOU HAVE LOST the race!


the ONLY GIVENS for a race car are:


1) you will spend ALOT of money


2) you will SCARE the hell out of yourself


3) you will have some FUN here and there


4) YOU will WRECK IT sooner or later.

That is WHY all THE SMART FOLKS have bought BONDS...now U get NO ROI and have the added risk that the Bond Bubble will burst...

Folks won't recognize it now, but this thread is one of, if not the most significant thread on the board since the crash. The reason is that Herr Tabdullah is the first to note the economic sign we have been waiting to see: money supply growth. It's hard to overstate how important this is. The scope of the problem has been so vast that it is breathtaking Despite trillions of Dollars pumped into the economy, the economy has continued to shink; but more alarmingly, the money supply has been shrinking. That is just astounding. Pouring money into the economy and watching the money supply contract is like watching water flow up hill.

Anyway, the first sign of economic recovery is expansion in the money supply. I have not been paying attention so I didn't see it before Tabs' told us about it. I'll look into it a little more, specifically what's going on with M1, but if the money supply really is expanding, the recession really is over and the stock market is the place to be. I will be carefully but quickly putting my money back into the market. I've already noticed financial stocks strengthening uexpectedly. The market isn't likely to take off, but what the money supply is telling us is that the stock market will generally and broadly increase with good returns.

Inflation is still not in sight. Comodities are expensive and getting more expensive, but demand will ot supprt significant price increases. Inflation and interest rates will remain low for at least the next two years.

Hmmmm I just looked at the latest gross numbers and don't see anything about M1 or M2 to write home about. Carry on. But do keep your eyes on the money supply. A firm expansion of the money supply will be to the stock market like robins are to spring.

From my college Economy classes, when a Gov't prints money, it's the beginning of the end. Has something changed? :confused: :confused: :confused:

I appreciate the comments posted on the boards. Staying long is not an investment choice.

I invested in gold/miners and got out at 1178. I do not feel I missed the rally to 1300.

I will fully invest in PM & markets when "granny" says to ;)
Video posted as an example of investment manipulation.

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2010 investments----Down 3 times Up 4.

John

Waiting for that.
From what I've read here, you're being modest. You could manage my money any day, I just don't have any.

I do not care how U want to slice it...getting out at 1045 on the SP500 was a poor risk to reward decison....your downside risk at that point was minimal because 1040 was the BOTTOM OF THE TRADING RANGE...If you had wanted out you should have waited to get clsoer to the top of the range. And then you should have pulled the money out incrementally...You sold out at the BOTTOM..you lost out on a 10% move...even an idiot like myself knows that...

The Stock Market is not strictly a numbers game..if it were everybody would get rich..the Market is an organic creature...At 1040 on the SP 500 i had watched over and over again the buyers come in...it is the perceived bargain point...Mr Tepper noted that at 1000 on the SP500 he backs the truck up and BUYS...in other words he shifts his model to nelrly 100% equities..

Ironically Support levels are self fulling prophecys as it is the peception that it is a buying point that makes it so...

Pray tell, exactly what "mess" is Wayne in, now? Missing out on paper gains qualifies as a "mess?"

Given your constant lectures about how the US has been going to hell for the past few decades, your fascination with short-term market moves is perplexing.

A little restraint, tabs, my friend. Try it, please.

Do U remember Olivers famous refrain to Stanley..."It is another fine mess you have gotten me itnto Stanley."

from my very humbling experience with the IRS and being AUDITED(invitation aka happy mail, sent from ogden,utah) any time you say "racecar"/"racing team" it is an AUTOMATIC RED FLAG w/the IRS!

since being in sales/sales mgmt all my life you are taught "salesmens expense accts 101" at a very early age and you learn real fast to keep EVERY DAMN RECEIPT no matter how small as obviously they all add up in the end.


the lil navajo IRS girl and i literally went over EVERY RECEIPT for hours. compressing an entire year of race expenses into a day. talk about having your pencils SHARP and hers were, as she had (3), a sharpener and a big ERASER(scarey). talk about a STACK of papers!


when all was said and done, i left being owed by uncle sam over $1100 bucks as i had NOT claimed enough and had found some more receipts. my tax guy had been doing taxes for 34 years and only had this happen to him once!


so when anyone decides to go "professional " racing, take some time with your CPA and go over what you can and cannot do as far as "write offs". many people are mistaken as to what a legit write off is. and finding out that what you thought was a write off and what the IRS deems a write off, can be complete polar opposites. and the IRS wrote the book and they ALWAYS WIN!

Haha, now I get it. Sorry, I don't watch much TV or movies.

Better hope you're right. Bump this thread in a year, won't we? ;)

If you bump this thread tabs will bump any one of the dozens of threads he has authored that call for the end of the world. Where all us BOYZ are going to be eating squirrels and dandelions.

[QUOTE=tabs;5582315]I do not care how U want to slice it...getting out at 1045 on the SP500 was a poor risk to reward decison....your downside risk at that point was minimal because 1040 was the BOTTOM OF THE TRADING RANGE...If you had wanted out you should have waited to get clsoer to the top of the range. And then you should have pulled the money out incrementally...You sold out at the BOTTOM..you lost out on a 10% move...even an idiot like myself knows that...

QUOTE]

That’s very easy to say now that the month is over. Things and phrases like “trading range” are nothing more than opinions based on your own criteria. I would say that Wayne’s criteria were different than yours. Also, when you use a phrase like “poor risk reward” you need a qualifier since what some consider “poor” others would consider prudent based on their own definition of poor. Sure at the end of Sept is easy to sit back and criticize but the question is what’s the point of doing that?
In hindsight we all should have taken New Orleans in the super bowl last year… big deal that’s easy to say now.
Being a “trader” and managing money are two vastly different things. You talk about “buyers coming in and in” LOL you don’t see 1/100th of the market and you don’t know what motivates who or what positions they have on in all kinds of connected markets.
Ask me how I know…

[QUOTE=trader220;5585402] GO BACK AND READ MY INITIAL COMMENTS ON WAYNES I'M PULLIN OUT THREAD>..I said the same fkin thing..bottom of the trading range...ask me how I fkin know...Ohh I will tell you 20 years of being involved inthe Market...

SO there is NO FKIN HINDSIGHT ON THIS ONE.....


Ohhh and if you recall I called New Orleans BEFORE THE GAME EVEN STARTED...there is even a Thread on it...

What was the purpose of the hindsight? What possible benefit could come from it?

The super bowl was an off the cuff comment about Monday Morning QB's... Insert the game of your choice it does not matter.

What’s with all the foul language?

The term "involved" also needs a qualifier.... what some people think is "involved" others would consider a cursory retail dabble in the markets

1. Pettiness..I told ya so....

2. Yeah I realize that it was somthing you pulled out of the air, but I still called it...and it was not a flip of the coin or guess.

3. Foul language is sometimes a tool to be used...to sumtimes convey ones impatience...also it is a less formal way of addressing an issue..

4. Yeah well my cursory dabble involves a bit more than a coupla bux thrown on a lark...it constitiutes where I get my money to pay the bills...as in from my investments...If anything Wayne is the cursory retail dabbler...

David Tepper of Appaloosa Management was on CNBC's Squawk Box last Friday morning. He was somewhat bullish on stocks, and he did also comment that bonds were problematic at this point in the credit cycle.

Why do you capitalize Bullish, Or, and Stock Market?....Then run period's together between sentences....?

Please tell us where the market will be at the end of 2010 and in one year from today based on your work with "trading ranges" and other research.

Are you making fun of my disability...I AM A VICTIM OF THE CA EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM...It is a miracle that I am not a Liberal and still retain some, enough brain cells to at least make a coherent repsonse...well at least some of the time...

Tepper made two points about the direction of the stock market going forward.

1. If the economy gets better on its own the the marekt will go higher

2. If the economy flounders the Fed will institute QE2 everything will go higher in price..

So no matter which end of the equation one looks at it the stock market is a no lose proposition from his point of view.


If the Democrats win in November...get out your old Doors Album and put on repeat their song "THE END"

If the Republicans win..well the market will go higher... To be somwhat conservative in prognosticating one would tend to think it will at least revistit the April highs on the SP500..1250 or so.

The cavet here absolutely has to be baring any major catstrophy that should occur in the world...that would be a game changer...

Going forward...modestly higher for next year...

1. I could not agree more, especially after some of the PM's people have sent me about threads here in off topic based on the dialog between you and me in this one. Oh, and a thanks to those who sent them to me.

2. You could say you called any contest you like, its meaningless as to the issue.

3. I don’t see foul language so much as a "tool” but more of a "crutch" or a "tell". Thats just my personal opinion based on where I get my values. I dont expect everyone to share them nor do I impose them on anyone else.

4. It’s the internet…no one here knows for sure where anyone else gets their money from or how much they have. Unless we’re going to open our books to each other, it is not of any concern to me who claims they have a more or less than anyone else or how they claim they got it. Note, that I don’t generally get involved with discussing, specific issues about money, wealth or material goods on a message board. Again, I fail to see the point and I assume everyone on the internet is rich, smart and good looking.

Incidentally, why did you assume I was referring directly to you when I mentioned “cursory retail dabbler”?
I don’t need to defend Wayne nor am I specifically trying to but what was the point in taking a shot at him like that? He and his company provide this fantastic board for all of us and quite frankly, based on his personal inventory of fairly rare and exotic Porsche’s it could be said he’s pretty well off.

I am starting a betting pool on how long Blabs will blather on it this thread - this particular thread, not in a similar vein on other threads.

If you want in, send a $5 bill via paper mail to me at Faulty Towers, 666th Floor, Nimrod, Oregon

paper mail only please -- don't worry -- there is plenty of time for it to get here.

Your a cliche

I haven't read this whole thread, and just glancing at it suggests you all may have veered a bit off-subject anyway, but just thought I'd throw this in here.

You probably recognize who Paulson is.

John Paulson: Sell Bonds; Buy Stocks; Double Digit Inflation Coming
By ROBERT LENZNER
It could be time to sell your low-yielding bonds and replace them with higher-yielding common stocks.
Multibillionaire hedge fund operator John Paulson, the investment genius who made a killing going short subprime mortgages a few years ago, told a standing room only crowd at New York’s University Club that double-digit inflation is about to rear its ugly head by 2012, killing the bond market, and restoring strength to equities and gold.
Paulson’s warning to sell U.S. government bonds is one of the latest signs that the most successful investors of this generation believe the run up in bonds is over. Paulson especially underscored the attraction of equities with earnings yields of 7%-8% compared to the 2.6% pittance available on 10-year Treasuries.
Paulson listed his favorite blue-chip stocks; JNJ (Johnson& Johnson) at a 3.8% yield; KO(Coca Cola);PFE, 4% yield., as well as C (Citigroup), BAC (BankofAmerica) and STI (Suntrust Banks) and RF (Regions Financial).
Paulson is a pro at buying the distressed bonds of bankrupt companies, and then converting the debt to equity in reorganization and benefiting from the potential run up. He mentioned one of his greatest plays — K-Mart, which emerged from bankruptcy at $10 a share and then skyrocketed to $190 a share.
His crystal ball is for 2% GDP growth for 2011 and 2012 and he warns that the Fed’s promise of quantitative easing should contribute to double-digit inflation over the next few years.
As this is the best time in 50 years to buy homes, Paulson advised his listeners, crowded into 3 separate dining rooms, to issue 30 year mortgages to buy a home as “your debt and interest payments get locked in at record lows, while the price of your home will rise.”
“If you don’t own a home buy one,” Paulson recommended; ” if you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”

For very short-term considerations, do note the market has November elections and mutual fund year-end coming up, at the tail end of a year in which many hedge fund and mutual fund managers are running out of time to generate performance.

Yes, he did make those points.

CNBC interviews many pundits every day. The hedge fund guys may offer an opinion and then trade against you after their opinion is priced into the market. In addition, they are not going to send you an email when the market begins to go against their current recommendations.

Positively no.

You are ignoring systematic and unsystematic risk. You can lower unsystematic risk by diversification and proper asset allocation.

Systematic risk is always around (watch your back). Market risk (one example) consists of tax consequences, war (or a terror attack), investor preferences, the "flash day crash" of May 6th., etc.

The Fed may fail in their plan to buy CDO's and government paper. It's the old saying "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". (John Maynard Keynes).

I'll mark you down for 5%-8% in one year. :D

I do not make predictions about the direction of the stock or bond market in any given year. History has shown that to be a futile exercise. ;)

BINGO on both of those.

The cavet here absolutely has to be baring any major catastrophe that should occur in the world...that would be a game changer...

How did U miss this in my Post? This does cover Systemic risk does it NOT? Further do I have to spell everything out..of course a portfolio needs diversification to help hedge against non systemic risk..that is such a no brain er that I don't even mention it...Whew...A portfolio should ideally have between 16 and 23 stocks to hedge against risk either more or less increases risk and that should be spread over multiple sectors of the market.

About 15 years ago I stopped listening to what any Financial Pundits/MM's were touting as the flavor of the day..as in a paticular stock position...However I do listen to what SOME of them say with regards to market direction and economic conditions. But as with any opinion the reasoning is more important than the opinion itself.

I was very hesitant to make a one year prediction..."MODEST" is about the best noncommital BS word I could come up with...

I see stagflation for the US economy..1% to 2% growth for the fore seeable future ..which creates NO NEW JOBS as 3% is the portal for job creation. This in reality means that with an increasing population the unemployment percentage will actually increase over time.

Further the National Debt itself is going to increasingily put a DRAG ON THE ECONOMY..At some point the Bond Vigilatantes are going to step in and send a letter to Uncle Sam saying that he has exceeded his his credit limit and his interest rates have just been increased to 19.99%. We all know what this will doto the economy..

Taxes will have to be increased to cover the deficits or risk that 19.99% interest rate. Which will have those unintended consequences of slowing the economy. The USA has unfortunatily reached the point where tax cuts are not only not possible BUT WON"T WORK TO STIMULATE THE ECONOMY. The reason is that the deficits and debt will continue to climb and put an increasing drag on the economy. CATCH 22

As the FED starts QE2 which is a monetarization of the currency the value of the USD will continue to decline. This will make foreign imports that much more expensive and at some point will make mfg in the USA competitive once again. However by the time that occurs THERE WILL BE NO MORE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS for all intents and purposes. So hyperinflation is in the cards and this will in essence gut America.

So the long and short of it is........It does not matter who gets elected in the fall...the ship is inextricably headed for the Berg...I f the Republicans get in and hold true to the ideals of the Tea party it is possible to still miss the Berg by the narrrowest of margins, but it is far too late for the deck chairs not to be rearranged...

Keynes was essentailly wrong in his premise..about the market STAYING irrational for a protracted period..for this presumes that its normal state is rationality.

The Stock Market is what one might say as being organized chaos...

Trader,
I knew you were in the business. I own an independent RIA money management LLC.

We have days of extreme satisfaction followed later when you wake up every night in a cold sweat and can't sleep.

This is one tough market today. It's the worst one in decades. Pundits keep telling me that the market is under valued since price/earning, price/free cash flow, and price/book is 20% cheaper than historical values. I keep telling them them those multiples can contract even further when investor preferences make it do so. History says the down-side risk is another -20% (or more).

I believe in principled realism; "A return of principle is far more important than a return from principle". Aka, you can live another day when you keep your assets rather than risk them for some unqualified risky bet.

Just ask Drexel Burnham, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac (to name a few).

Vintage,
I can appreciate where you are coming from. It took me the better part of ten years to really remove a great deal of emotion from the day to day swings. In the 1980’s and 1990’s I traded currency options and basically my week started at 3pm east coast time Sunday and ended Friday evening at 5pm.
After the currency options and another dozen years or so in the US equities markets, I sold out to my partners.
There is no one exact answer to anything and the number of issues in a diversified portfolio is different for all sorts of people. One thing remains constant any return over the risk free rate has sweat in it, anyone who says otherwise or has a “system” that says otherwise wont be around all that long.

Clearly according to you everyone but you is wrong LOL

So if your rationale is to preserve capital what did you move your assets into..US Treasuries? as in the ON THE BEACH STRATEDGY. Move them into GOLD?

Exactly what kind of event would it take to move the Market DOWN 20%??? Would this be gradual or quick?

If an event or series of events takes place exactly how would OTHER ASSET CLASSES FARE? The FED is currently embarking on QE2 which as a policy it is known as "PUSHING ON A STRING" Are we going to ZERO PERCENT on the 10 yr Bond?


What I am really trying to get at here is if the Market should move down by 20% as a result of some event or situations...the OTHER ASSSET classes such as CASH and its equivalents , BONDS and RE are going to adversely affected as well.

THERE IS NO SAFETY ANYWHERE...EVERYTHING IS AT RISK, EVERYTHING IS ON A KNIFES EDGE, IT WILL ALL BE WORTHLESS.

EXCEPT FOR GOLD and the precious metals.

Some people will proclaim well I will move my money into the foreign markets...Thats a bright move as how does one think they will stand up to the suction of the by far largest economy in the world with its tentacles everywhere and reserve currency status sinking beneath the waves...in other words the world economy would be dragged down by a failure of the USA..

HERE IS WHERE YOU ARE WRONG..THERE NEVER HAS NOR WILL THERE EVER BE A RISK FREE RATE...

There is illusion of being risk free...and that has been called the US Treasury and the USD...at least since the end of WW2..why has this been so, the risk was minimal for a very long time.

Let us use the word COMPLACENCY...that the USD and US T BIll were risk free...and that led to ignoring its gradual increase in risk that has taken place over the last 40 years.

This compalcency was broken the day GW Bush stepped out and said "WE are in a crisis." That was the day the bubble broke.

Further the day or series of days that the Obama bubble broke was in his handliing of the Gulf Spill. Until then the American people by and large were giving him the benefit of the doubt about his competency and the veracity of his vision.

I guess I'll just keep reposting this

Well against my own better judgement...I was wrong in giving you a one year prediction as to where the market was headed..

NO I make lots of mistakes...but what I have is clarity...I am CHRYSTAL.. I can cut the line razor fine Baby..I can give you definition I can tell you why things work the way that they do...I GIVE YOU REASON...EXPLAINATION.

Most peoples thinking is muddled, muddy and myopic...

I have lived with the Financial markets for so long I have gotten to know its habits, if not all the rationales. I can generally tell what the markets wants to do..since March of 09 it wants to go up..

I do view the Market as being organic and thus not a rational entity..for if it were all a numbers and stat model game why everyone would be a millionaire.

I view the market as being organized chaos..and there is only the illusion rationality.

The only time there is a RISK FREE RATE...is when your DEAD...