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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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A Few Odds & Ends
1. Stock Markets move up and down in price as a psychological (emotional/rational) reaction by human beings to the economic data that is steaming in. Even this movement in price is analyzed and is then used as a form of economic data which then helps to create that psycholgical reaction. The analysis of Stock Market data is a objectification or quantification of this psychological reaction. It in a sense creates a feed back loop and at times is a self fulling prophecy.
Also the moving averages..represent the synthesis of the collective psychological reaction of the participants as reflected in their decsions to buy or sell. So as much as one would like to think that the Stock Market is a numbers game that is predicated on rationality and is based on quanitative data the contrray is true the Stock Market is ultimatily irrational as emotions by and large affects the decision making process. One wishes that one had a dollar for everytime that economic data had streamed in where the iniatial reaction to that data was a stock market down draft. Where upon further examination of that data the market would rebound as some favorable aspect of that data became apparent. If that were the case one would not be seeing my fat azz on this Board anymore as I would be in the South Of France with my new friends...Keith and Mick do you think could you hand me the mirror I think I need another hit.... 2. Thinking Opinions are facts...One should remember that I said, "I will never doubt my perceptions again." Because on can not prove a subjective perception at the momenet does not mean it is NOT a fact, true or reality. How do you prove an emotion exists..how do yo prove that you love something...you can not touch it nor quantify it yet nearly 100% of human beings think emotion exists. For example..Why do U Boyz drive Porsches...you like them...prove it..well I drive one...well one could counter you drive it because it was cheap, it was all that was available, it was given to you, it was ultitarian..all these rationales are equaly plausible to your liking it...so you can not prove you like it..yet liking it exists. Further Einstein offered an OPINION called the THEORY OF RELATIVITY..it took 20 years to prove it was a FACT and not an OPINION... Also remember that when I offer one of my opinions as a fact I also offer a plausable explaination of why it is a fact. I offer the mechanism of why it is so. Many of the opinions that I offer as facts over the years are now being PROVEN in psychological or sceintific studies. 3. It is true that one can NEVER quantify an emotion or psychological reaction to an event. Thsu Mr Trader is correct in his statement that no one has ever been able to numerically predict what the stock market is going to do. However on can subjectivily figure out the broad tenor of the market. One can also based upon the statistical analysis of the market data understand that that data becomes a self fulling prophecy. Thus knowing that SP 1040 was a statistical market support level it would become a self fulling prophecy of the point where the market would bounce off of..No magic just a recognition of previous patterns that had become statistical data that would cause it to become a self fullfilling prophecy. 4. To truly see what the reality of a situation is one must seperate ones emotional bias out of the equation. Emiotion colours all of our perceptions down to the minute detail. For living enities it is virtually impossible to remove all emotional bias. Howeve if one is aware ones predilections and emotional biases one can begin to take them into account and either seperate them out or discount them in ones analysis. The idea is to try and see around them as best one can to see the truth of the matter and make an accurate assesment.
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Copyright "Some Observer" Last edited by tabs; 10-02-2010 at 06:52 AM.. |
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10-02-2010, 06:36 AM
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Registered
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Somewhere.
Posts: 1,632
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Tabs comes out fighting!!!
Go Tabs !
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88 carrera Using the teutonic shift method since 1990. |
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10-02-2010, 06:46 AM
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Information Overloader
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: NW Lower Michigan
Posts: 29,369
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But, for me to end up on the beach with Elle, Morgan and their friends, I should watch the market and react, instinctively and immediately without reason, based on pure emotion. I should possess unwavering trust in my own instincts on every single transaction, the more the better, so that over time, I will emerge just ahead of the pack who pauses for just a brief moment before responding.
Is that a corollary to what you are saying? |
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10-02-2010, 07:35 AM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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Quote:
For example how much emotion do you attach to a Sephia 911 driving down your street..the answer is practically none..you might have some rise because the Sephia colour is so fugly...but it is just a matter of fact that another car has driven down your street...no big deal. Hmmm it is more about what your emotions are telling you than acting on them. As in your angry....because???? I am sad because of...once you know the reason why then you can chose your reaction.
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Copyright "Some Observer" |
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10-02-2010, 09:12 AM
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