It is Gona Be Now Or Later

[tabs]

Either Mubarak goes now or he goes later...sooner or later we are gona have to cross that bridge. The question is, is the good will of the Egyptian people for supporting their efforts worth the risk of having some people who do not like the US come into power?

My opinion is that Mubarak has to go and the sooner the better. He has lost his chance of going amicably and now chaos is beginning to take hold. Where this will lead and when the music stops nobody knows. The longer this drags out the less hope the US has of influencing events. You might say our window of opportunity began several days ago and probably extends a few more days. After that President Obama might as well be holding his pecker in the WH bathroom. The damage will be done.

If I were Prez and somebody jumped me for not acting fast enough and being slow on the trigger...I would tell em to look up honest Abe and the Emancipation Proclamation. Or don't trip your trigger till you see the eyes roll over...

Now it is obvious that Mubarak has to go...before this you had to give him a chance and let the cards be dealt...


BTW: If I were Prez I would have eveyone of my military liasion with the Egyptian military on the phone talking to them.

[Rick Lee]

Might as well be on the right side of history when we have the chance to do so. They're going to keep hating us either way. We should spend that foreign aid elsewhere too, like in not spending it at all.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

Might as well be on the right side of history when we have the chance to do so. They're going to keep hating us either way. We should spend that foreign aid elsewhere too, like in not spending it at all.

I understand you can create at least 1500 jobs with that 1.5B USD as Obama likes to point out.

Or you can buy some foreign generals a bunch of toys to keep em happy with you. And look at it this way you create the jobs anyway, cause they are buyin the hardware from you.....

[tabs]

Today the People in the streets are turning on the US for not doing enough to get rid of Mubarak...They are beginning to say the USA is keeping Mubarak in power. This is the same argument that is expressed by Al Zawahiri and the main reason he helped found Al Qaeda. and its anti US position.

Zawahiri spent 5 years in an Egyptian prison for his supposed involvement in the assassination of Sadat and blamed the USA for keeping Mubarak and his ruling junta in power.

The window of opportunity is beginning to close and fast on the USA's stock of GOOD WILL in Egypt. Very soon it will be that whatever govt is formed in Egypt will BE HOSTILE to the USA and its interests.

If I were President I would give Mubarak a call and tell him in no uncertain terms that for the good of his country he should go and what I was going to do. Then I would make a statement that although Mubarak has been a good ally for the good of his nation he should step down within the next few days.

Quite honestly it is not a good position to be placed in, one that is fraught with risk. But one better get ahead of events rather than lose ground by backing a losing horse in the race. Further it rather unlikely that the Muslim Brotherhood will take over in Egypt. Egypt has too much Western influence going back to the days of Roman occupation. A further good sign is that people have gone and protected the Museums which means they are thinking of their heritage.

[HHI944]

I have this brilliant idea re Egypt. Let's stay the F out of it!!!
It's not our business or our problem so for once, let's not get involved. And can someone tell me how the F it takes $1,000,000 to create one job?!?!?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by HHI944

I have this brilliant idea re Egypt. Let's stay the F out of it!!!
It's not our business or our problem so for once, let's not get involved. And can someone tell me how the F it takes $1,000,000 to create one job?!?!?

This is a good idea but in the face of reality is not realistic. Unfortunately the stakes of having a hostile Egypt effects US foreign policy and interests in the world.

[techweenie]

Damned if we do; damned if we don't. Remember Iran? We kept a despot in charge for 20+ years and got *****slapped for it.

Ironically, Iran probably has the most pro-Western population in the ME outside of Israel. When the folks who counted the ballots cheated in the last election, they took to the streets and were shot down fairly quickly.

Not quite the same in Egypt, where fundamentalism has been a powerful force. The question is, if Egypt goes, what other countries will follow? Saudi Arabia could be on the list.

[Crowbob]

Saudi Arabia is already pretty fundamental. But Jordan will fall. Then so goes Israel and any hope of western influence in the ME, thus concluding Jihad I. Jihad II is Europe with Jihad III being the Americas. Or so says the plan.

[tabs]

The question is quick becoming does America support the ideological rational of its existence of freedom and democracy. Or is Ameirca going to go for self interest alone, thus proving that we have no moral right to the expressed ideals that our nation was founded upon. Further events are fast outstripping any action that America might take. Thus leaving America in the position of fiddling while the winds of change blew hot.

The thing that America should perhaps remember is that by promoting an end to rule by dictatorships is that ultimately America is under cutting the rational for Islamic jihad. For the Jihadists rational is that it is only Allahs law that is fair and just. This undercutting may come at the price of having governements form that are not everything that we could wish for nor be exactly happy with.

[daepp]

They deserve an orderly transfer of power, not mayhem. And mayhem is what you'll get if they just toss him out!

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by tabs

The question is quick becoming does America support the ideological rational of its existence of freedom and democracy. Or is Ameirca going to go for self interest alone, thus proving that we have no moral right to the expressed ideals that our nation was founded upon.

If we truly believe in democracy, we should support it wherever it grows and whomever it elects. But there is democracy and there are elected governments and they aren't the same thing. If the people of a nation don't believe in the fundamentals of democracy (which don't allow the winners of a election to become dictatorial and expect parties to share power) then "freedom" is only freedom for the winning party. I don't think many "democratic" countries really understand this. I'm afraid the people of Egypt don't understand it.

[74-911]

Serious food for thought: is this another Iran in the making - who is really behind this??:

Intelligence Guidance: The Situation in Egypt | John Mauldin | Safehaven.com

"What we have to find out is who is behind this. It could be the military wanting to stage a coup to keep Gamal Mubarak out of power. They would be doing this to preserve the regime, not to overthrow it. They could be using the demonstrations to push their demands and perhaps pressure Hosni Mubarak to leave voluntarily.

The danger is that they would be playing with fire. The demonstrations open the door for the Muslim Brotherhood, which is stronger than others may believe. They might keep the demonstrations going after Hosni leaves, and radicalize the streets to force regime change. It could also be the Muslim Brotherhood organizing quietly. Whoever it is, they are lying low, trying to make themselves look weaker than they are -- while letting the liberals undermine the regime, generate anti-Mubarak feeling in the West, and pave the way for whatever it is they are planning"

[livi]

If my comprehension of the English language was just a tad worse than it is, the content of parts of this thread would probably leave me with the notion that Egypt is, in fact, an American colony..

[imcarthur]

And we all know what happens when a colony finally shakes off its overlord . . .

Ian

[cbush]

Originally Posted by livi

If my comprehension of the English language was just a tad worse than it is, the content of parts of this thread would probably leave me with the notion that Egypt is, in fact, an American colony..

A reflection of our status as a country with global influence. We value stability as we have paid the price for instability. Our dilemma is we are sometimes dammed if we do, and dammed if we don't. We have walked a fine line in Egypt for many years- but through working with Egypt, have at least kept them out of conflict with Israel.

When we talk about our ability to influence the outcome in Egypt, it is not because they are like an American colony, but our long term engagement in the country that allows us to help shape events, and hopefully provide a softer landing for the Egyptian people. Clearly our work with the Egyptian military over the years is paying benefits as they seem to be acting very responsibly, and understand their responsibility to the people. That attitude for a military in the Middle East doesn't just happen. It takes YEARS of investment and a commitment to make it happen. So why does the US have influence? Because we make the investment. Doesn't mean we can dictate the outcome though.

It is unfortunate that other nations around the world are unwilling or unable to make the same kinds of committments for peace. That is how I see it anyway.

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by cbush

A reflection of our status as a country with global influence. We value stability as we have paid the price for instability. Our dilemma is we are sometimes dammed if we do, and dammed if we don't. We have walked a fine line in Egypt for many years- but through working with Egypt, have at least kept them out of conflict with Israel.

When we talk about our ability to influence the outcome in Egypt, it is not because they are like an American colony, but our long term engagement in the country that allows us to help shape events, and hopefully provide a softer landing for the Egyptian people. Clearly our work with the Egyptian military over the years is paying benefits as they seem to be acting very responsibly, and understand their responsibility to the people. That attitude for a military in the Middle East doesn't just happen. It takes YEARS of investment and a commitment to make it happen. So why does the US have influence? Because we make the investment. Doesn't mean we can dictate the outcome though.

It is unfortunate that other nations around the world are unwilling or unable to make the same kinds of committments for peace. That is how I see it anyway.

Well put.

I have been amazed that the Egyptian military has been a peace keeper, and even more important, that some general has not taken over. In many parts of Africa and South America the general would have taken over by now. That is a sign of a professional military. They are there to keep the nation safe.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by 74-911

Serious food for thought: is this another Iran in the making - who is really behind this??:

Intelligence Guidance: The Situation in Egypt | John Mauldin | Safehaven.com

"What we have to find out is who is behind this. It could be the military wanting to stage a coup to keep Gamal Mubarak out of power. They would be doing this to preserve the regime, not to overthrow it. They could be using the demonstrations to push their demands and perhaps pressure Hosni Mubarak to leave voluntarily.

The danger is that they would be playing with fire. The demonstrations open the door for the Muslim Brotherhood, which is stronger than others may believe. They might keep the demonstrations going after Hosni leaves, and radicalize the streets to force regime change. It could also be the Muslim Brotherhood organizing quietly. Whoever it is, they are lying low, trying to make themselves look weaker than they are -- while letting the liberals undermine the regime, generate anti-Mubarak feeling in the West, and pave the way for whatever it is they are planning"

Interesting re-write of history. I liked the part where the western-leaning liberals were hoodwinking the media into thinking the revolution was all about them. Whoever wrote this must not have noticed the pictures of Ruhollah Khomeini that were plastered on walls and carried on signs EVERYWHERE.
While I agree it is valuable to know who is likely to come to power in Egypt, this "analysis" isn't helpful.

[RPKESQ]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

Interesting re-write of history. I liked the part where the western-leaning liberals were hoodwinking the media into thinking the revolution was all about them. Whoever wrote this must not have noticed the pictures of Ruhollah Khomeini that were plastered on walls and carried on signs EVERYWHERE.
While I agree it is valuable to know who is likely to come to power in Egypt, this "analysis" isn't helpful.

Yes, that "analysis" was a typical Americocentric POV. America was founded on the principle of individual freedom. Why we feel we must force our way on other countries is some sick perversion of American ideas.

The people of Egypt should have the right of Self Determination. Our interest (mostly business) should take a back seat in this.

[techweenie]

The dialog out there in Internet land is fascinating. So many people suggesting "we" "put" somebody in charge in Egypt.

Refreshing that the dialog here is respectful of sovereignty and self determination.

I hate that people think the US is somehow the world's nanny. How about this: let's stop propping up despots and run our democractic system so well that it becomes the aspirational model for the world.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by techweenie

The dialog out there in Internet land is fascinating. So many people suggesting "we" "put" somebody in charge in Egypt.

Refreshing that the dialog here is respectful of sovereignty and self determination.

I hate that people think the US is somehow the world's nanny. How about this: let's stop propping up despots and run our democractic system so well that it becomes the aspirational model for the world.

+1
Especially the last paragraph. Things have been shakey in the past and I'm afraid there is going to be some drama in the near term, but the United States is a beacon of political stability and the notion that politics is NOT a zero sum game.