How will stock respond to election?
 

Particularly energy stocks. I am looking to put a whole lot of money in a company that I feel very good about over the next five years. This is money that I can lose and won't be hurt(financially).

I have been trying to dig up statistics on how energy stocks will react to the presidential election and it has been frustrating to say the least. I think there will be little change if obama is elected, but if Romney is elected I see a steady up tick in stock prices. I have absolutely zero data to support this opinion though.

Please, please do not make this into a political thread. It's more of a personal finance question.

Analysts have XOM going to 100 from it's current 91-92.

Romney is viewed as a positive/ Obama is viewed as a negative...

Plastics.

If "O"man gets back in there will just be more of the same "uncertainty" and if Romney is elected there will be, well...........uncertainty. Regardless, we'll be fortunate if we don't experience a deep recession after the election.

"It will fluctuate."

--J. P. Morgan

The better question to ask is what is going to happen with the Bush Era tax cuts. Doubling of capital gains & dividend tax rates on 12/31/12 may significantly impact all investments, oil companies inparticular because they are typically high dividend paying stocks & have exhibited very high growth in recent years aka a lot of capital gains.

Statistically the market has performed better after an incumbant wins. Like him or not, Obama has made stock owners a lot wealthier. Personally I think you have Bernanke to thank for that more than anyone else, but I believe Romney has hinted at giving him the boot if he is elected.

Historically the stock market indexes go up in election years and fall the year after. The rational for this is that in election years there is more information available and markets feel confident enough to purchase when they have more full information. The other, more cynical, reason is that incumbents tend to put money into the economy in election years and pull back after the election.

The bounce Obama got from the market is hardly anything he did and is hardly anything to be proud of. The largest drop in the stock market indexes EVER happened just as Obama took office. In just his first year or so in office the broader indexes doubled, which put them merely at a five year loss. This did not reflect anything other than the fact that the markets were over sold and investors no longer feared the complete colapse of the economy and were therefore willing to buy stock again.

Having said that, the markets are unlikely to react significantly regardless of who wins, at least in a sustained short term way. The market is fairly high right now and will only go higher as the economy expands. So the market will continue to predict and respond to core economic data, not really who is elected. If Romney or Obama are able to get the economy going again, the market will take off. The market will respond to that, which indirectly is related to who has the White House, but it's not going to go up or down in a sustained manner based on who is elected.

Thanks a lot guys. BTW if anyone is wondering I am looking at Halcon Resources.

This is a great read and one that I agree 100% with. Just looking for a good time to buy in....http://seekingalpha.com/article/934831-halcon-resources-an-oily-hawk-that-s-cheaper-than-you-think

you asked about energy stocks - Romney is considered good for coal, oil...

Obama is considered good for natural gas, solar, wind...

The Potomac Research Group, a nonpartisan research firm based in Washington, DC suggest if Romney wins focus on stocks of defense contractors, banks and other financial institutions, high-end retailers & domestic energy companies.
Obama will continue to support alternative-energy & health-care industries.

Reguardless to whom wins, stock will go down. The 8 Ball says so.