The Car Bubble Has Burst

[tabs]

Today was watching the Krause car auction in San Jose. Very few sales and almost all passes...How bout 61K for 67 327/300 Corvette Coupe..pass or 80K on a 52 XK120 with racing features...a pass or 100K on a Porsche 1958 356A Speedster..same owner for 20 years and in pristine condition....pass

[Zeke]

Yep, I think the car values are stalled and about to shift gears downward. This has already happened to less than stellar cars. Now the cream is getting sour.

[911boost]

It has definitely burst, which is how I picked up a strong running 1968 Buick Sportwagon 400 a couple of weeks ago for practically free. Yep, its a Vista Cruiser basically. One owner car, all original in decent shape.

The kids love it, and it scoots.

Bill

[nota]

Originally Posted by BSiple

It has definitely burst, which is how I picked up a strong running 1968 Buick Sportwagon 400 a couple of weeks ago for practically free. Yep, its a Vista Cruiser basically. One owner car, all original in decent shape.

The kids love it, and it scoots.

Bill

I had a 70 sportwagon with the 400
never lost a street race to a stock car
and only one to a modded 350 chevy
and he had to use his NOX the whole run

but I bought that ride back when it was just an old car
$400 in the early 90's

[pwd72s]

POP! I think this is good overall. Just maybe these cars will eventually end up in the hands of enthusists instead of those who know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

[turbo6bar]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

POP! I think this is good overall. Just maybe these cars will eventually end up in the hands of enthusists instead of those who know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

While I agree that prices will eventually reflect little/no speculative premium, I wonder, "What is the bottom?" I'd love to grab a clean 930 or RUF-modified car, but I'm so scared to let go of the cash. If others are similarly 'tight,' where do we hit bottom. After all, a few years ago, everyone seemed to believe 911S models would only ever appreciate. Prices did rise forever to astounding levels. Will prices now fall to astounding low levels?

NO horse in this game. I'll just accept and live with my lowly, slow M3.

[plain fan]

I was shocked the other day to find 2 996 based GT2s on the 'bay from dealers for $67k plus change. 996 based GT3s can be found in the 50-60 range as well.

[sammyg2]

Good. I'm sick of fliping the channels and seeing one auction after another marching out nothing but POS corvettes and mustangs.
They act like they were the only cars ever made or something. That mechams auction is the worst. 95% of the cars are vettes, they all look alike after a while.

[Rick V]

Originally Posted by BSiple

It has definitely burst, which is how I picked up a strong running 1968 Buick Sportwagon 400 a couple of weeks ago for practically free. Yep, its a Vista Cruiser basically. One owner car, all original in decent shape.

The kids love it, and it scoots.

Bill

The Family Truckster? Can't believe I got to say it first.

[McLovin]

Just watched a half hour of some Russo and Steele auction, the prices did seem very low. Much lower than the pre-auction expert guesses as to price.

Things that they estimated at 90K to 100K (like a 100 pt trailer queen concours Series I XKE jag) went for around $70K. A decent Series II XKE went for $24K, and a Countach went for around $70.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by turbo6bar

While I agree that prices will eventually reflect little/no speculative premium, I wonder, "What is the bottom?" I'd love to grab a clean 930 or RUF-modified car, but I'm so scared to let go of the cash. If others are similarly 'tight,' where do we hit bottom. After all, a few years ago, everyone seemed to believe 911S models would only ever appreciate. Prices did rise forever to astounding levels. Will prices now fall to astounding low levels?

NO horse in this game. I'll just accept and live with my lowly, slow M3.

For collector cars (things that are, say, 30+ years old and at least somewhat limited in production numbers) I don't think prices will reach astounding low levels.

Maybe somewhat astounding relative to the really astounding peaks, but not giveaway prices.

If they do, I am ready for a 72 or 73 Ferrari 246GTS for $35K! Or a really nice early S for $18K. (I don't think they will reach those levels!).

I'm sure they currently have somewhat lower to go, but I don't think a huge amount. They will bottom out in the next 2-3 years, I think. At some point, they will be a decent hedge against inflation.

[kaisen]

There are no surprises here, given that the stock market, housing market, and employment rate have similarly fallen. They all go hand in hand.

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by turbo6bar

While I agree that prices will eventually reflect little/no speculative premium, I wonder, "What is the bottom?" I'd love to grab a clean 930 or RUF-modified car, but I'm so scared to let go of the cash. If others are similarly 'tight,' where do we hit bottom. After all, a few years ago, everyone seemed to believe 911S models would only ever appreciate. Prices did rise forever to astounding levels. Will prices now fall to astounding low levels?

NO horse in this game. I'll just accept and live with my lowly, slow M3.

My theory...the early S's that are truly cream of the crop will, for the most part, remain with their true enthusiast owners. I know that's going to happen with my old car. "What is the bottom?" Sellers and buyers alike are pondering that question. It's only answered when money changes hands. I think there will be more price drops. People are learning that cars are lousy investments when purchased as investments. ALL markets fluctuate.

For myself? I got bored with the whole scene...now just enjoying driving my current car, which will depreciate like crazy. But even if it's value goes to zero, I won't lose as much as somebody who turns the key on a new 911 variant.

Yeah...a "slow" M3. HOOT! I had a very enjoyable ride in a friends then new M-3 last Sept. One fine automobile. Read Peter Egan's column in the August R&T. Evidently, he & I now have something in common. Just fun driving is my goal these days...a car I can park anywhere, walk away to do whatever, and not worry about the car when I'm doing that whatever.

[McLovin]

One last one, a nice XKE convertible, Keith Martin and the other expert estimated it to go at $65,000 and $80,000. Sold for $35K.

[kaisen]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

People are learning that cars are lousy investments when purchased as investments. ALL markets fluctuate.

Conflicting statements. Cars are like art. Some art is investment grade, some cars are investments grade. Some are NOT.
Since ALL markets fluctuate, then are they all lousy investments?

The trouble with the 'bubble' that occured (cars, art, real estate, stocks, etc) is that even the poor grade stuff went high. The cream will recover. The rest will be 'cars' or 'paintings' or 'houses' again, not investments.

Over the last twenty years, blue-chip collector cars have performed as well as the stock market.

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by kaisen

Conflicting statements. Cars are like art. Some art is investment grade, some cars are investments grade. Some are NOT.


Over the last twenty years, blue-chip collector cars have performed as well as the stock market.

The beauty of what I consider true "portfolio" investments...stocks, bonds, etc. is that one merely picks up the phone or hits a key to sell. Real estate, rare paintings, etc. are another story. A seller needs to hunt for a buyer. I question your last sentence...but then, I was fortunate enough to have participated in the greatest bull market of all time. collector cars have needs and there are costs hooked to those needs. Insurance, parts, labor, storage...all syphon away from any gain....though those making your statement often forget to factor those costs in.

I'll post this here now since it doesn't matter.

In 2007, I "sold" my '72S along with all it's spares, my books, tools, etc. to Evren for $65K. I figure I could have sold to one of those speculator/flipper A-holes for twice that...even more if I'd been a stripper selling H-1 lights and tool kit seperately, etc. But I was never into the '72S for money.

I purchased the car in 1974 for around $10K. Factoring in all my outlays while I was enjoying the car during those years, I broke even...

If I'd put that same $10K in a good index fund back in '74? I'd have one hell of a lot more cash than any early 911 has sold for in the open marketplace...even the iconic 1973 RS. But then, I wouldn't have enjoyed a '72S during that time.

As the value increased in that car, and the more coveted it became, the less I enjoyed driving it. Today, with a cheap Bullitt Mustang, I'm enjoying driving again.

To each their own...but I'll NEVER consider cars to be a good investment. I don't consider cars as investments. Never have, never will.

Oh, you want a crazy collectables percentage gain? Back in 1972, I bought a pool cue for $125. Called a "Palmer supreme" then, it's now called a "model M from the second catalog". It came with 2 shafts, a fitted case, and has my name on foil encased under a clear plastic ring. I've been offered $5,000.

But, like the 911S I bought to drive, I bought this cue to play pool with. I still have the cue. I will confess that I play with a Keith Josey custom these days...

A Bullitt Mustang is a better driver than a 1972 911S. A Keith Josey Custom cue is a better playing cue than a "Palmer Supreme".

Whatever floats your boat...

[typ550]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

In 2007, I "sold" my '72S along with all it's spares, my books, tools, etc. to Evren for $65K. I figure I could have sold to one of those speculator/flipper A-holes for twice that...even more if I'd been a stripper selling H-1 lights and tool kit seperately, etc. But I was never into the '72S for money.

Dang, Paul, I could have traded you a nice MGA for that car!

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by typ550

Dang, Paul, I could have traded you a nice MGA for that car!

Chris...your MGA is too nice for the likes of me! It really is special. Really, Evren is like the son I never had...and I got the promise the car will never leave Turkish soil. His rough plan is that someday the 911S will belong to his son, now 2 years old. Cars like the old 911S and your MGA get "passed on". The mustang is just for driving. I feel I got well rewarded in the deal.

[intakexhaust]

Thread revisted... kinda fun to read from the OP.

Anyhow, the horse traders are at it again.


From Live Trading News - March 29, 2013
1962 Ferrari 250 GTO Sells for Record Breaking US$35-M

Lime Green Ferrari GTO

Seattle based billionaire Craig McCaw just purchased an extremely rare 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO for a world record setting US$35-M

Ferrari 250 GTO

This Ferrari GTO was originally made for British Formula 1 racing legend Stirling Moss.

The GTO went on to have an impressive racing career that included the 1962 24 Hour of Le Mans and a few major circuit victories.

After being retired from racing, the car became a desired collectors item thanks to its Lime Green color and extreme rarity.

Ferrari produced just 39 250 GTOs between Y’s 1962 and 1964 and painted only one Lime Green.

At $35-M, this Ferrari 250 GTO is now the most expensive car ever sold.

The previous record was just set a few months ago when another 250 GTO was sold for $31.7-M. The record before that was a 1957 Ferrari 250 Testa Rossa that sold for $16.39-M in August 2011.

Craig McCaw sold McCaw Cellular to AT&T for US$11.5-B in Y 1993.

The seller of the GTO, a Dutch businessman, purchased the car for US$8.5-M 10 yrs ago.

The car was sold in 1996 for US$3.5-M, the value has increased 10 times in 16 yrs, proving that owning vintage Ferraris is a very good investment. indeed.

[pwd72s]

I still don't consider cars investments. Sorry. Far as I'm concerned, "sales" like this ferrari are really just dick measuring stuff...bragging "I can spend more than you".