Just how low can oil prices go ...
 

If it falls to $16, I will be mortgaging my house, mutual funds, and 401K stocks so that I can invest 100% into commodity-based oil ETF's. You can bet it's not going to stay there.

Total guess based on my gut feeling - $20. There is so much supply now and demand is soft that in the short term producers will be dumping it at any price and the price will drop lower than we can now imagine. Intermediate term there is so much supply and demand looks to remain soft that it will take more than a year, possibly five, for prices to really stabilize and trend upward. Long term, the new fracking technologies have proven easy to turn on and off as prices pass the profitability mark for them, which will create downward pressure on price. At the same time, the world is working on energy efficiency technologies, so the long term demand for oil might actually be down.

I just read an article arguing that one of the reasons the Saudis are pumping oil without any limits is because they think they are going to run out of customers for oil before they run out of oil and they want to get whatever they can for it while a market for oil lasts. Think about that for a minute. We could be in a world where we have so much oil that we will naturally transition to the next technology and stop using oil because it's no longer needed before we run out of the sticky black stuff.

I have no idea, myself. But I heard that some expect to see $20.
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If we see that...I'll be buying Chevron as well as ETF's (above).

18 dollar oil?
more windfall profit for the marketers in Canada.
still 5 bucks for a gallon of premium up north. land of the Canadian peso.

from the above article..... "Economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland say that oil could fall to $16, while Standard Chartered predicts that prices could hit just $10 a barrel." Fox news is showing a Shell station at 99 cents/gallon. I predict some M&A, Chevron and Exxon might be buying some of these smaller oil companies like Devon , dunno. we'll see. Tomorrow might get interesting...

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Iran plans to increase oil production by 500,000 barrels per day...

78 cents /gallon in Houghton Lake, MI over the weekend (and it briefly went to 46 cents!). It a small northern area that I travel through frequently and for some unexplained reason they have price wars between a handful of stations all the time.

Wow that is cheap.

Back is the olden days when I was first driving, gas was 25 cents per gallon. With inflation that equals $1.42 now. I do remember gas war prices of 18 cents a gallon that is $1.02 now.

The only difference is I got full service. The attendant filled up the car, washed my windshield, checked the oil and tire pressures and asked about my family.

That, and I could dig in the couch cushions and find enough money for a gallon which got me 32 miles.

" Bear in mind that excise duty and VAT make up nearly 60% of the price of a litre, and that isn't coming down any time soon."
^^^^^
analogous to what the situation appears to be here

Cheers
JB

We have a new neighbor building a huge house a bit down the road. His RV garage is *gigantic*. Young guy with a wife and small kids. Works 2 weeks on / 2 weeks off in the oil fields. Williston, I'm guessing. Sure hope he's paying cash for his home construction.

an oil services guy is building this house down the road from me. it was recently mistaken for Blake Sheldon's house, which is 2 houses down... no telling what it is costing. EXCLUSIVE: See Blake Shelton's New Home in Oklahoma -- and Gwen Stefani's Already Been There!

They can now sell and hungry for cash, the spice must flow.

That article argues wrong.

i'm guessing once the oil service companies get in there .... it will increase over time

Mean while they export Allah.

Oil prices can go to zero, and stay there forever, but not in our lifetime.

I just love all these articles....a complete 180 from all the "Oil will never be cheap again!" articles from a couple years ago when it was at $125/barrel.

I finally truly believe that no one knows what the true value of a barrel of oil is, at any time, at any place in the world.

Simple investing strategy
Go long when the articles all say "Oil is cheap and going cheaper forever!!!!!!!"
Go short when the articles all say "Oil will never be cheap again, its going to $500/barrel!!!!!"
Double down if they use more than 3 exclamation points in the title

:)

If they keep up this pace we will run out in our lifetime...

Can everyone stop plsying chicken and slow the flow, there are more loosers than winners here (world wide) and it will hurt everyone for the next few years.

What I don't understand is why the US dollar is still doing so well...

Maybe airfares will go down. lol

I am beyond screwed.

(Work for a global oilfield service company with the color red)

Only in that the Saudis have fired a major shot across the bow of U.S. domestic producers. Fortunately for those in the domestic industry even Saudi Arabia can't sustain these low prices indefinitely. In order to meet their societal costs (if you think we have an entitlement society take a look at the oil-rich Middle East countries) the Saudis need oil to be at about $80 per barrel. Given that it was estimated their war chest would last about 3 years at $40/bbl, simple math tells you it won't last as long at $30, $20 or less and that they'll either raise prices or face the sort of civil unrest they've never had to deal with before.

Of course the House of Saud could simply decide to take what they already have and split the country.

Everyone should be buying UPS and FedEx stock. Their fuel surcharges haven't changed, profits will have to be going way up. Nice to be a duopoly.

Good timing for my new Camaro engine!

http://www.chevrolet.com/content/dam...h-1280x551.jpg

Can't be worse then what "The Administration" has done to coal.

I predict about $24. But if it goes lower the economy is going to crap. Big banks didn't get to involved with loaning out money but a lot of the smaller and mid sized did, as well as some investment groups. Hope you like that sub $1 dollar gas. Cause when the defaults/bankruptcy's begin it will effect everything. I'm doing everything I can to get out of this business and get back to the downstream and process market. Folks here in Louisiana like the cheap gas, but when your states budget has a 2 billion shortfall, guess where that revenue is coming from??? How's that cheap gas now?

A quote from Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum. (Vice-President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Emir of Dubai)

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" (Mid 1980s)

You have to store over production some place.

This is a simpletons pov.

Not really - the only thing I'd add is that the Sauds really can't run anywhere: where would they go? Crawford Ranch perhaps, lol!

I figured you'd be in the audience ...

You missed the not so obvious investments in western corporations as a rational for their defacto stimulus program.