LOL, registering 300,000 preorders in 72 hours.
They delivered 15,000 cars in the first quarter of 2016!
So much hot air, this will be a major disappointment.

Waiting for a car for many years is so DDR!

Understanding the full ecological impact would definitely tone down the smug factor. The majority of our electric power is still from burning coal. Electric car batteries require strip mining, which is a nasty process. If you could assess the full ecological impact associated with an electric car, I suspect that it would be no better than a gas one.

The pre-sales are big problem for Tesla.

The procurement department is scrambling now. They do not have capacity, they do not even have a plan for this capacity.

Their purchasing and cash flow plan was for a production line with an output less than half what they now think demand is.

This will be interesting.

I find owners fall into two camps. a) blissfully unaware 'I save a ton of money on gas', but no hard facts, no details on what they pay for electricity to charge the car. Or b) they charge the car for free at work or at the Tesla station.

I haven't seen anyone with real numbers and facts to convince me of the real economy.

Monster V8 or electric car, driving cost ignorance is bliss.

In a perverse way, I think this might be Tesla's downfall... So many orders so fast? With a 2 or realistically 3-4 year delivery time minimum? Not only will this be hard to deliver upon, but I think it is going to "wake up" some sleeping giants that DO have the capacity to deliver this. Think Toyota, Honda, the VW group brands, BMW, GM, Ford...

"oh yeah? that many orders for a $35K electric-only car that is reasonably quick? Hold on a minute"... "By the end of the day on Saturday, the preorder count reached 276,000. Based on Musk's estimate of a $42,000 average transaction price with a few popular options, the number of reservations roughly equate to an $11.6 billion backlog." - they're gonna want a piece of that pie !

Not to belittle Tesla's efforts, they certainly proved the concept is viable, and they do interiors and the touch screen very well, but how hard is it for a "true" manufacturer with cash flow to crank out something like the model 3 BEFORE 2019? IMO, way easier than it is for Tesla to ramp up its pathetic manufacturing numbers to 276K new cars + Model S + Model X ! Methink that could be the way forward for VW after the diesel gate!

So far the big boys have only delivered hybrids and boring electric cars (i3, leaf anyone?).... But they have the chassis know how, the manufacturing capacity, and the electric drivetrain stuff is not exactly rocket science for their engineering staff (most of which are in F1 or WEC playing with ERS, MGUK and the like)... and bonus time, they might make cars less Fugly than the model 3 and way earlier IMO. Picture something like a less outlandish BMW i8 all electrical, for $50K.... Or less ugly than the I3 anyway... Watch Tesla's lines evaporate. I think they gave the game away !

Over 30% of all income tesla gets is indirectly from the gubmint.

If it were not for government GIVEAWAYS to tesla, they would have gone out of biddness long ago.

See, in the people's republic of Kalifornia, the gubmint gives away lots of carbon credits to companies that don't need them, and only a few to companies that DO need them (because the gubmint says they do).

The gubmint picks favorites based on political support and agendas, and punishes companies the gubmint doesn't like.

The gubmint says those companies it doesn't like need a whole bunch of carbon credits to do biddness in kalifornia, but the gubmint only gives them a little. For a fee.

So they have to buy very expensive credits from other companies. Companies that get a whole bunch of credits they don't need, like TESLA!!!!!!!

Tesla sells those free carbon credits and puts the money in their pockets, and pretends like they actually EARNED THAT MONEY. But they didn't.

Those other companies earned that money, then the gubmint stole it and gave it to the looser companies like tesla and solar plants and other STOOPID things that make ignorant people FEEL good.


And the ignorant and uninformed walk the earth thinking tesla makes good cars, they are a good deal, they are a real company.

But they are not a good or real company. They are simply at the top of the PYRAMID!

How Tesla Motors Really Makes Money... From Taxpayers | Frontpage Mag

Teslas are still well within the boutique car category and people who buy them are mainly into showing their friends and the public their new eco-toy. Yes, we Porsche owners are the same way.

I wish I could help. I've tried to keep track, but it's complicated. My wife's Volt has only been driven about 3K miles since August. In that time she's used a bit over 4 gallons of gas (160 miles), the rest has been from the charger at home where the power is $0.143 per kw/hour. She has a light foot and the car sleeps in a garage where it's warm. She gets about 4 miles per kwh, so she's paying about $0.036 per mile for fuel. Theoretically our electric bill should have gone up about $27 over the period ($3.35 a month).
I've driven my Volt 4762 miles on electricity and 12,046 on gas. It stays in a cold garage so I have to heat it up on cold days. But I do about 75% of the charging at the office where the power would be $0.08 per kwh if I paid for it (I kind of do, but with before tax dollars). I guess I've paid about $10 for electricity and whatever 300 gallons of gas cost me.

We just got our tax forms back from the accountant. We got $15,000 in tax credits from the cars. In our situation the economics of owning a Volt are astounding.

^^^ thanks for the feedback.

Cheers

Elon apparently asked for feedback and got a lot of front end grills and other treatments...
Apparently he liked that one... Please make it so, there is plenty of time !!

I'd buy that (with the "Ludicrous" option), I'm not buying the current Daffy duck.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1459891749.jpg

There is a flat black Model 3 being driven around the factory parking lot. It looks very 'rough'.

There are so many new 'things' on the 3 that the demo cars aren't really 3's. They are 3's built with S components.

The astonishing sales numbers have really put supply chain into panic mode. I was told a lot of things, nothing surprising, but all confidential.

I suspect the car, in one form or another, will be available on the promised dates.

Well, that "one form or another" leaves a lot open for interpretation.

http://s.hswstatic.com/gif/pedal-car...for-kids-1.jpg

if they can't meet production, they just have to return the deposit, yes?

The correct way to look at it is total life-cycle cost. It takes energy to build a car. The higher the cost of the car, the more energy that went into the construction.

Gasoline is $2/gallon. A car typically will go 100K miles. If it gets 25 mpg, it used 4000 gallons of gasoline. Or $8K. The cost difference for a similar electric or hybrid is more than this figure. And electric only vehicles DO use energy.

If the Tesla uses 85kWh per 200 miles, then its 100K miles lifetime usage is 42500 kWh. In my city, I pay $0.079/kwh, or $3357.5. If you pay closer to $0.20/kWh, then the cost is nearly the same.

FYI, I wrote several case studies on our hybrid energy system this morning.

Mi-Grid_Economics.pdf

I think $2/gal is unrealistic. Seems like over the past few years it's been well into the $3s and sometimes over $4/gal. Seems like these low cost gasoline periods never last very long.

And here in Cali many workplaces/shopping centers have free charging stations.

I'm sure this fad will pass just like the Prius :p

Tesla charging stations?

Is the Tesla plug different than the Ford, Toyota, etc.?

OK, so change the $2 to $3. The operating cost @$3/gal vs. $0.20 kWh over 100K miles is $3500 more. What is the price difference between a similar sedan that gets 25 mpg and a Tesla 3?

The stations will not go away. They will not be free for very long.

You are likely to get more rather than less: as the 'S' components are available, while the heart of the 3 is not.

Or at $4/gal the difference is an additional $4,000 more. I don't know what electricity costs here now or over the next 5-10 years, either. Maybe one gets charged at work for free... But there's more to it. There's resale value at the end of the ownership period, maintenance costs for each type of vehicle, tax credits, and the convenience of using HOV lanes. I think the future is bright for electric vehicles, either as hybrids, plug-ins, or maybe from hydrogen fuel.

They are GREAT! Look at all of the crap you have to do to get people to drive them! Free fuel. Tax Credits, HOV lanes.

Price has been around $0.22-0.23/kWh in San Francisco. It is $0.187/kWh right now because the price of natural gas dropped.

Average Energy Prices, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, February 2016 : Western Information Office : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Using $2.44/gal and $0.187/kWh (Today's exact values)

2.44 * 4000 gallons = $9760

.187 * 42500 = $7977.25

So, "fuel" cost is similar.

Using "historic" numbers

4 * 4000 gallons = 16000

.23 * 42500 = 9775

I'm only comparing at 25 mpg. Switch in a Prius or other hybrid at 50 mpg and you'll be way under.

I've been averaging 32mpg in my GTI. 31mpg if I drive a little more "spiritedly". Petroleum-powered engine technology isn't standing still.

As has been mentioned before, something that must be factored in is the cost (environmental and human) of getting those rare earths out of the ground to power the hybrid/electric systems.

The 480v 200 amp super chargers are different. A Tesla can use any charger, but only a Tesla can use a supercharger.

There is more to it. People seldom buy cars based solely on the cost of fueling them. There are a number of reasons why I bought a Volt, among them is that it is interesting. It appeals to me for the same reasons I was attracted to my first VW bug, my 356s, my 911, my old Dodge truck - most of the vehicles I own. I find them fun, interesting, and a little different than what everybody else drives. I could not have gotten a Dino car this interesting for under $20 grand.

For $20K, I'd consider a Volt. If the cars are reasonably similar and in price, then the plug in hybrid is the way to go. Or even an electric.

Here is another opinion of the Model 3 and Tesla, including his analysis of how environmentally friendly these cars are (or aren't, from his perspective).

Model 3 analysis and Tesla

Good notes on the "carbon emissions" over the construction, operation and end of life of the vehicle.

Again, not as "green" as they claim to be.

There is a 2014 with a hundred miles on it sitting at a dealer near me. The're asking $27000, you can likely get it for $26000. Subtract the $7500 tax credit and you're at $18500.
Langs Chevrolet , Beavercreek, Ohio.

That's hardly an analysis. An unbiased report would be interesting though.

There are a number of cars that you can buy new for about $20k that get over 40 MPG on the highway. I think if you actually do the math, the payback period on a hybrid or electric car in comparison would be very, very long. I'd much rather have something fun like a Mazda3, the thousands you save compared to the average hybrid or electric would buy a LOT of gas.

Not many can afford a 50K daily driver. And let's face it that's all any Tesla really is. i could drive from dc to Richmond. But I'd be walking most of the way home.

Did I miss a cogent response to this^^

It's a very serious Q. --How can Tesla make money on a $35k version, when they can't even make it happen selling a bunch of $150k units?

Is it one of those things where they lose more money on each one; but make it up in volume? ;)

I think they aim to break even on the low end cars.

The battery and the drive units are where the real cost is. They are making design changes to reduce all related costs in those elements. That's all I can say.

I can see them teaming up with Magna eventually. Outsource the body-in-white, build the drives, batteries, and own the software.

6 cents in US dollars per kw here. 4.50 US for premium gasoline.
crunch those numbers.
: )

So, in Colorado my cost per kilowatt-hour is $0.026 - do the math on that one redbeard (although, since free charging is a benefit I have at work, I only really do 1 charge per week...). Gas is at $1.90.

And in Colorado I got almost $6,500 in a state tax credit on top of my $7500 fed credit - on a car that cost me $28000 out the door (even I can do the math on that - the car cost me $14,000).

Plus, I love car as appliance commuting to work. I have fun toy cars for the weekend, but during the week, it is 'get me to work in relative comfort (heated leather seats, decent air, good seating position), safe and cheaply'. The Volt is a perfect fit.

Great for Tesla - hopefully they can deliver. Just like a 4wd vehicle isn't great for every commute (but live in northern Wyoming - you would really want one there) an electric vehicle isn't perfect for everyone. Choices are good.