Why Are We Such Poor Decision Makers
 

Humans have such poor decision making.

We, among other flaws:
- See non existent patterns in noise or small data sets
- Extrapolate past trends without basis
- Are over confident in our own abilities
- Have confirmation bias
- Generalize and stereotype
- Jump to conclusions, make hasty decisions
- Are prone to panicky adrenalin fueled actions
- Act on feeling rather than reason
- Etc

However, is this because we are so poorly developed, or is this because we are very well developed for the environment in which we evolved?

Humans were evolved to survive in dangerous primitive environments. Thorough data gathering and lengthy analysis was not usually possible. Often we had to quickly act on very little information, lest we be eaten while waiting for more facts. Being frozen with doubt was often worse than being over confident. Stereotyping and generalizing are ways to reach a fast decision, and adrenalin gave us strength and speed. Hamlet wouldn't have lasted long in the jungle.

But we now find ourselves in a different world. Accurate analysis and reasoning is rewarded here. More than jumping to conclusions and making hasty assumptions.

That's my excuse, anyway. I'm not dumb, I'm just lost.

You may be over simplifying. Reasoning has always been important in planning and building.
Best
Les

You obviously have not listened to my previous lectures on this Board. That in of itself is reflective of poor decision making on your part.

The good thing about going through so much strife in my life, is that I am supremely confident that I don't make quick, rash decisions, I do not get panicky, or freeze up when faced with death. I am also a very quiet person that doesn't spout off at the mouth about any injustice, I choose to survey a situation, and take the best path.

My son is a senior defensive end on the football team, and has always been known as "Silent Kelly" because he just doesn't say much, but the coaches see what he has, and made him captain this year.

I do tend to generalize, and stereotype some people (not racist) but I see the way certain people act/react to situations, and tend to expect the same behavior from them in the future.

:rolleyes:

^this.

If I was in charge of schooling, a large part of the curriculum would involve how to make the most of today's informational society- critical thinking, how to evaluate and interpret data, etc.

The only thing I would add is about this statement: "Being frozen with doubt was often worse than being over confident. Stereotyping and generalizing are ways to reach a fast decision, and adrenalin gave us strength and speed. Hamlet wouldn't have lasted long in the jungle."

I can see the point about decisiveness from a survival standpoint, however, risk aversion is just as practical of an asset. I think both have been passed down and are present today. In the right circumstances, both are beneficial.

This. The pattern recognition skills that served us well in a slower paced, predictable, ancient past now cause all sorts of biases in our decision making in a far more dynamic and diverse environment.

Many poor decision come from the storyline we maintain in our heads about who we are, and what our relationship is to the world around us. We view that storyline as fixed, that we are powerless to change the story itself. So we go along with the story, and make terrible decision based on a false premise. If you spend any time studying Buddhism or Cognitive Behavior Therapy (pretty much the same thing IMHO), you can start to get a perspective on the storyline, and more clearly see the parts that are fixed, and those that are arbitrary. Moreover, you can learn to not fear changing the story for the better.

Great post! Actually, the items you list are not flaws, let me explain:

- See non existent patterns in noise or small data sets
Which allows us to see other patterns that do exist. If a flaw does exist it would be an initial filter which diminishes with reflection, communication, and application thus the birth of prediction, religion, science, and wisdom.

- Extrapolate past trends without basis
Which is an essential skill that allows for wisdom to occur. The flaw would be the confusion between coincidence, correlation, and cause and effect.

- Are over confident in our own abilities
Yet imagine the antithesis? If we lacked confidence there would be no progress.

- Have confirmation bias
Yes but that is what is so important during fact check and rebuttal. Truth is born from bias because the status quo does get challenged.

- Generalize and stereotype
Yes and is so because they normally define the average and that helps with the general 'bet' of our predictions. Outliers exist allowing for progress when the behavior is defined and imitated if the behavior is beneficial.

- Jump to conclusions, make hasty decisions
Yes - see above

- Are prone to panicky adrenalin fueled actions
A true gift for self preservation

- Act on feeling rather than reason
While it is true our emotions can put us down a bad path, seems like it helps more then hurts provided we have developed a rational skill set that is not motivated by dangerous direction. Keep in mind, we only remember then failures of our judgments and often forget the success.

I see behavior patterns in people, economic markets and in the societies of nation states. Not only that but I know what, how and why they act the way that they do. I have taken a subjective subject and practically quantified it. It has become just a matter of fact, of it being the way it is...no and's if's or buts. It is just going to happen that way. Some might even think that it has a predictive quality.

For example for the past several months I have been saying the economy would rebound from the .7 % growth rate of the 1ST Qtr 16 (later revised to 1.1%), but not robust growth. I recently posted between 1.5% and 2% (you can look it up in these archives). Yesterday the Atlanta FED gave advanced data that the economy was going to show 1.8% growth down from their previsions forecast of 2.3% growth. Remember I have long been saying growth at the rate of population increase.

No mystery folks just an accurate, clearly defined appraisal of the situation. I can just see where it is going and sure enough it goes there. It is like reading a road map and charting out your path to a destination. Take the 5 N to 605 Freeway N to the 10 freeway west until you get to the Slauson cutoff.

You folks have no conception of the existential angst and pain that I had to go through to arrive at the promised land. Almost none of you would ever be willing to pay the price. As an example of knowing what true despair is, is in being able to define the difference between hope and faith. Hope is when you can see the light at the end of the tunnel and can say I hope to get there one day. Faith is when you see no light and the next step you take is on faith that one day you will see the light so that you can hope to get there.

There is no ego in what I do, some times there is bombast and that is just to fk with your heads. In appraising myself I can safely say that I have transcended the self for whatever that means, I have become part of something far larger in scope. It is as if I am floating in a sea of time and space. Some people may make a negative comment about that, but those words have no sway in the matter and are of no consequence for what I say is just the way it is, an accurate appraisal.

To come to an accurate appraisal you have to continually construct and deconstruct the data to test the accuracy of your conclusion. In many if not most cases considerable torment or existential angst of wrestling back and forth with the data is involved in coming to a resolution. As I said not many are willing to go all the way down the line every time.

There is a fantastic TED talk on this subject (well more than one, but one in particular) by Dan Gilbert that's one of my all-time favorites and which I refer back to from time to time for reminders about why it's important to estimate probability of outcomes and value of outcomes (really the only two factors that need be considered in decision-making):

https://www.ted.com/talks/dan_gilbert_researches_happiness?language=en#t-1940932

My over simplification:

1) Not all but many people tend to take the easy route instead of doing the hard thinking (see Tabs last paragraph)

2) Many people tend to only see what is immediately around them and assign meaning (even if they are only ever around just CNN or some internet forum or backyard BBQ discussion) - See motion's world travel posts for a good example of gaining a broader perspective instead.

3) Failure to test assumptions (willingness, or even awareness to).

Why the personal attacks? Just because I post in PARF occasionally doesn't mean I'm a dick. You're lucky I'm not closer.

Flip a coin...

I assume that is sarcasm :)

(oops, I myself just jumped to a conclusion):(

It is not a personal attack it is the simple truth about you...

YepSmileWavy

PARF, in a nutshell...

Bring back shop classes, home ec, auto shop, etc....

Boy O Boy 2ND OTR 16 GDP came in at 1.2%...I quiet frankly thought the number would have been better...maybe with the FED revisions it will be a bit better..

But on the longer term prognostication....of the economy tanking without the FED QEing...it is right on the money.

So how is that growth number workin out for ya BO? does it fit in with your Alice in Wonder Land speech..

I consider what the OP lists to be gifts if used with a good pool of past knowledge and experience. They are key qualities of a good decision maker, when a decision needs to be made NOW. Where no vision is, the people perish.

I'd rather have someone that can rapidly make decisions that are mostly accurate, than one that can only look at it after the point of a decision was actually needed.