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-   -   Coming Sooner Than We Think (Autonomous Cars) (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/945810-coming-sooner-than-we-think-autonomous-cars.html)

Holger 02-14-2017 10:48 PM

The laws will be changed very fast ... as usual when big money and technology are waving!

And there will be countries forcing the carowners to switch to AV, just to show how great they are and how early adopter they are.
Look at the Netherlands. They will prohibit (new) diesels from a certain point.
I can see Norway and Sweden going a similar way with AV or at least with EV. In Sweden the first road for E-trucks is opened now.

jyl 02-14-2017 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy (Post 9473426)
Nearly unlimited product liability caused general aviation aircraft manufacturers to stop building light aircraft in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Aircraft companies essentially had unlimited liability for all accidents and for an unlimited period of time, even if they were not the negligent party. It took Congress approving the General Aviation Revitalization Act in 1994 that limited their product liability for them to restart production. Stop and think about that for a moment, the legal burden was so extreme that they actually quit building their products. Now think about that in the context of self driving cars. The auto industry is going to introduce self driving cars with similar features and at a similar price point to today's "normal" cars, so let's assume that they will make a similar profit. But they are now going to assume the entire liability that currently resides with the driver onto themselves? A liability that is the basis for today's multi-billion dollar auto insurance industry? I don't think so. If laws aren't passed to limit the liability for automakers, that liability will get amortized into the unit cost of the self driving cars. Which likely means they won't ever see widespread acceptance.

Why do you assume AI cars will not be required to carry insurance?

onewhippedpuppy 02-15-2017 02:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jyl (Post 9474272)
Why do you assume AI cars will not be required to carry insurance?

I never said that, but currently the liability lies with the driver. Hence why drivers are required to have insurance. When the driver is no longer liable, who gets the insurance? Does the owner now purchase insurance to protect the manufacturer from liability? I suppose that is one feasible option. But what happens in an uninsured motorist situation? At some point there would have to be legislation to hold harmless the manufacturers for all liability.

I don't in any way question that the tech will be fully developed in the next 5-10 years to make full autonomy a reality. I think these legal questions will take far longer to address. And if a self driving car malfunctions and mows down a group of kids waiting for the us, it could put the entire thing in jeopardy. Because people like control and inherently distrust anything that requires they relinquish their ability to make decisions.

GH85Carrera 02-15-2017 04:18 AM

No matter how much safety the designers and engineers design into the car, there will be wrecks and failures. There has never been a failure proof product. We all know someone that could break an anvil or mess up a monkey wrench. A complex vehicle will have failures. Some will be a design flaw, some will be unforeseen errors and some will be the bigger idiot that comes along for every idiot proof product.

When the autonomous car comes up to a lot of water on the road will it just sit there for hours or proceed forward into a flood? What about ice and snow? The variables are infinite and the potential for problems unlimited. Every one of us had made a mistake while driving. Sometimes we got out of it OK, sometime Murphy wins.

jyl 02-15-2017 05:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy (Post 9474309)
I never said that, but currently the liability lies with the driver. Hence why drivers are required to have insurance. When the driver is no longer liable, who gets the insurance? Does the owner now purchase insurance to protect the manufacturer from liability? I suppose that is one feasible option. But what happens in an uninsured motorist situation? At some point there would have to be legislation to hold harmless the manufacturers for all liability.

I don't in any way question that the tech will be fully developed in the next 5-10 years to make full autonomy a reality. I think these legal questions will take far longer to address. And if a self driving car malfunctions and mows down a group of kids waiting for the us, it could put the entire thing in jeopardy. Because people like control and inherently distrust anything that requires they relinquish their ability to make decisions.

Here's one way it could work.
1. Owner of AI car required to purchase liability insurance (extension of existing laws)
2. Both owner and manufacturer are covered as insureds (logical, since both are "drivers")
3. If no valid insurance in force, car doesn't run (AI will check every time it is started, the car is internet connected)
4. Due to low accident rate of AI cars, actuarial cost of the insurance is very low

Here's another way it could work.
1. AI car is leased, not sold
2. Lease payment includes insurance
3. Both owner and manufacturer are covered
4. If lease is not being paid, car doesn't run

And another way.
1. Manufacturer is self insured
2. Expected liability cost is included in price of AI car, whether sold or leased (manufacturer can do the actuarial calculations as well as any insurer could)

You can't compare the GA industry with the auto industry. The general aviation industry was (is) tiny, the companies are tiny, the financial strength is tiny, compared to the auto industry.

Holger 02-15-2017 05:23 AM

That is another cause for the AI/AV will not be a success.
I dont want anyone besides my family to always know where I am. Internet connected car will not be accepted in many countries/cultures.

jyl 02-15-2017 05:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera (Post 9474361)
No matter how much safety the designers and engineers design into the car, there will be wrecks and failures. There has never been a failure proof product. We all know someone that could break an anvil or mess up a monkey wrench. A complex vehicle will have failures. Some will be a design flaw, some will be unforeseen errors and some will be the bigger idiot that comes along for every idiot proof product.

When the autonomous car comes up to a lot of water on the road will it just sit there for hours or proceed forward into a flood? What about ice and snow? The variables are infinite and the potential for problems unlimited. Every one of us had made a mistake while driving. Sometimes we got out of it OK, sometime Murphy wins.

Standing water - interesting. The AI car can detect when water reaches a certain level and then reverse, rather than proceed. I wonder if the engineers have gotten to this point in their development and testing.

Ice and snow - as mentioned already, the AI car can detect traction levels better than most drivers, by measuring tire slip vs vehicle motion. It can slow to safe speeds, refuse to proceed on slopes too great for the available traction, decline to advance if snow gets too deep, etc. I don't know if the engineers have gotten to that point, but obviously they have to be thinking about it.

From the number of wrecked cars after every snow and ice event in Portland this winter, I'd say the average human appears to be pretty bad at this, the AI can be much better.

jyl 02-15-2017 05:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holger (Post 9474416)
That is another cause for the AI/AV will not be a success.
I dont want anyone besides my family to always know where I am. Internet connected car will not be accepted in many countries/cultures.

Your cellphone carrier knows where you are 24/7.

Google knows what you read, like, buy, look for - probably where you are, too.

But you use a cellphone and Google, don't you?

Holger 02-15-2017 05:51 AM

Yes, but I can decide when to switch it off and not to use it.
When driving from A to B I cant.

Fast Freddy 944 02-15-2017 05:53 AM

Lets see, remote controls, check, automated work, check, getting rid of standard transmissions in cars, check, sitting on the I-net for hours check, robot cars check, other people or machines thinking for ourselves, check. Us turning into worthless couch potato's and fat asses, check!:Dhttp://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1487170219.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1487170375.png

Jim Richards 02-15-2017 09:59 AM

Interesting AV article w/ video on Jalopnik

This Is How You Want Your Self-Driving Car To Behave In The Rain

manbridge 74 02-15-2017 03:53 PM

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1487206372.jpg



I guess it's over....

JD159 02-15-2017 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by manbridge 74 (Post 9475335)

LOL I want contact lenses with augmented reality so bad. Ideally, with some sort of neural interface so I can give my thumbs a rest.

Things are gonna get really weird really fast.

Holger 02-15-2017 10:54 PM

http://i3.ytimg.com/vi/FlfZ9FNC99k/hqdefault.jpg

https://img.memecdn.com/google-glass..._o_3459643.jpg

Fast Freddy 944 02-16-2017 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by manbridge 74 (Post 9475335)

That's it!!!!! I saw that film, and its quite possible that that could happen. LOL!:D

Fast Freddy 944 02-16-2017 07:50 AM

Ever see the Jerk, with Steve Martin? LOL he made and got rich from making a eye glasses holder but it caused folks to go wonkey eyed. LOL!:D

93nav 02-16-2017 10:59 AM

People are going to "mess' with self driving cars beyond just hacking their computers systems. I can image quite a few scenarios where self driving cars get taken advantage of.


Aggressive drivers will bully, cut up self-driving cars: study - Business Insider


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