Sell now or wait a year?
 

All:

Kathryn & I plan to retire to our home on St. Thomas in the fall of 2021. Had a realtor come look at our home in Oregon, and the estimate was $40k higher than we expected ($320 vs. $280) plus now it’s apparently a sellers market. We owe $50k on it, and were planning to move next year, but now we’re on the fence & may list it this year. I’m okay with living in a smaller home for a few years- but having lived in it for 15 years, I’ve grown quite fond of it.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1526245708.jpg

I’m tempted to do the stuff we’d planned anyway (paint, stain both decks & fence) then list it high ($325k) for a couple of months & see what happens.

Any thoughts?

Cheers,

Paul.

What a nice place.

Only you know how much the $40k figures into your retirement plans, but moving has a price as well, plus the fact you dig where you live.

I'd stay for the next few years and enjoy.

Nice place Paul - A friend that worked in the same building as you drove me by there a year ago. All I said was a guy on the Porsche Forum named Paul in your town had put up nice photo's of redoing his driveway a few yrs ago.....He immediately knew who it was.....

Regarding waiting a year? I'm in the same boat with my cabin at the Lake. I have offers, but dicided to wait a year....Thinking that peak can't be far away? Good luck on your retirement....

If you like it and it’s sound, I’d stay put rather than buy an unknown and risk pouring good money after bad. A good house is always in demand.

If you like the place, stay. A year probably won't make much difference in the market, & most of your mortgage payment is going toward principal now anyway. So paying against the principal is probably more efficient than moving expenses, etc. I keep hearing about the lack of housing and the buyers' market, so it might work out in your favor.

Yep...I'd be parked there until retirement...then move once :)

I agree with everyone else - I would stay put. I don't see the market dropping which means you would only benefit by waiting to list it. I'm not a real estate expert though so take that for what it's worth.

Doing the touch ups you mentioned would help when you sell it.

Good luck regardless of what you decide, Paul!

Sellers market means that you’ll pay top dollar to buy a smaller house and because the price will be lower, more people will be bidding against you.

I agree to stay put until you’re ready to move.

Small world! My wife graduated from Cle Elum HS!

Interested to know who you know that works at the office!

The 2008 panic was great for buying houses and boats and everything else expendable but not so good for selling. The herd will also scatter just as quickly as they eventually stick their head in the 30yr guillotine. Election years and uncertainty make for bad sales conditions. Springtime and pleasant news make for good sales conditions. A rapidly expanding local economy and small availability make for great conditions.

Don't just take the realtor's word on the estimate. $300k vs $350k means a quick sale and about the same commission to them. Do the homework and/or hire an appraiser. Work out an excel chart of all the recent sales pulled off Trulia/Zillow/Redfin/Realtor with all details. Get all the historic local demographics from the internet or city services and find out what will keep driving the local market. If everything is based on new jobs at the shark fin soup plant then selling earlier might be a better option. If it's something like biomed or jobs which are going to be around for a while then hold. I tend to be sentimental and hold investments for a long time.

You could buy a trailer in my town for $320,000
(not really but it's getting there)

The west is out of control right now as far as real estate. Where could you move? Having equity and cashing out should be secondary to a realistic plan...

All:

Thanks for the input. If we sell, we’ll rent a smal place until we head to the VI.

But since the consensus seems to be ‘stay’, that works for us!

Cheers,

Paul.

Mike Hovde - Retired OSP Truck Enforcement? Ring a bell..........

All I can offer is this: I don't see a dramatic downturn for another 5 years. Leveling off, certainly.

I am a contrarian.

SELL

Why? You don't know what tomorrow will bring. Take your profit. To hold is speculation.

That said, I am actively looking to buy more real estate currently. Our end games are different.

Question for Paul, what are prices like in BVI?

Thanks!

You don't know what tomorrow will bring.

Sure, but, aside from death, he knows they need some place to live.

Even if the market holds flat, (projections say increase) they've come out ahead in rent not purchased. And they have a nicer, more comfortable existence.

If the market falters then just how much would it have to slide to make staying not a good call?

I'll add, selling is just as speculative as not selling. But not selling is less work.

Three interest rate hikes planned for 2018, and three more for 2019, will cool prices. It's math.

Easy...Since not in a hurry, list if top dollar for area and don't come off the price. If someone buys, great, if not great.

What I was going to post, sellers market and the market is very very hot.

Add another 50K to the price and list at that. then start packing and looking for a rental.

Will another 100K profit make you move now?


The market is hot, I think it will stay that way for at least 1 more year, I do not see a reason for it to drop right now. I am still shell shocked from 2008 so I am watching more closely this time, I actually saw the 2008 crash coming in 2007 and am pissed I did not see it n 2006 when the early signs were apparent in hindsight.

All that said, I see no reason the market is going to dive in the next year or two, if anything, it seems like it is getting some steam behind it right now and will be a wild ride for the next 2-3 years.

List at 380 and see what happens. Not sure how common your architecture is there but that is a really cool design that might be making your house stand out.

Yep....the "once in a lifetime" period of ultra-cheap interest rates, and it's impact on housing is soon to be history...a.good thing imo.

That said...moving twice sux twice as much as moving once...I'd stay put :)

Yes, I always liked Mike. He stopped by the house recently, and seems to be doing very well in retirement.

High. Very high. That was actually my first choice, since I’m a Brit- but the USVI offered us a lot more home for our $$$ so we went that route. Ended up with a sweet pad on a half acre above Magens Bay. View...

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1526301467.jpg

Thanks for the input guys- much appreciated. After much discussion with Mrs. K, we’ve decided to stay until we leave for the VI. In the big scheme of things, $50k is not that big of a deal, having to move into a rental & move out of this house is.

Cheers,

Paul.

I don't know your overall financial situation. If the equity in your home is a big part of your retirement strategy, I'd think about selling. When my Dad passed in 2006 My Mom sold their home outside of Tucson for over $300k. They'd paid $175k two years earlier. Two years later the place was worth less than they paid originally. That equity was huge for her as they didn't have much beside his pension.

Are you taking the D90 with you?

As the saying goes "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush". It is an old English hunting expression. I agree sell up now and get as much as you can while the market is buoyant. Having said that if you feel too attached to your present house then perhaps you are not ready to move.

lture
 

Good call, moving sucks, less times you do it the better.
Vultures already circling the Land. :D

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A bird in the hand, though. Paul, if retiring could drop $3k using two men and a truck and stash the keep stuff in storage. There is a limitation on "waiting out" downturns if you are into middle age.

Stock market is bloated. Who knows?

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Yes. It’s going to get a complete build before then- new chassis & bulkhead, 300bhp LS engine & 6-speed auto transmission, paint, Puma dash, the works. Pretty much decided on red, so it’ll look like this...

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1526343206.jpg

A year from now your house could/should be worth $10,000 over this year's estimate you were happy about...AND....you will have paid down the mortgage by another $10,000. In effect, you will be $20,000 ahead of the game staying where you are for another year, not to mention the extra stress, and cost of moving twice is not worth it.

A shame that beam blocks the view of the island.

Sweet!

Here's my brush with the Defender.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/732441-god-day-drive-defender.html

LOL. I just read thru the thread and you responded five years ago. Last post. It's a tangled incestuous web here. :)

Hi Paul! My wife and I were living in St. Croix when Irma hit. My company was buying supplies/staples and sending them to St. Thomas. Then, Maria hit St. Croix and St Thomas was sending supplies to us!

How did you make out during the hurricanes?

Just because a realtor told you you'd get more doesn't mean you will get more. They're pretty famous for doing that to get a listing.

Stay and sell on your own schedule.