Sell now or wait a year?

Paul K · Paul K's Garage

All:

Kathryn & I plan to retire to our home on St. Thomas in the fall of 2021. Had a realtor come look at our home in Oregon, and the estimate was $40k higher than we expected ($320 vs. $280) plus now it’s apparently a sellers market. We owe $50k on it, and were planning to move next year, but now we’re on the fence & may list it this year. I’m okay with living in a smaller home for a few years- but having lived in it for 15 years, I’ve grown quite fond of it.

I’m tempted to do the stuff we’d planned anyway (paint, stain both decks & fence) then list it high ($325k) for a couple of months & see what happens.

Any thoughts?

Cheers,

Paul.

Seahawk · 05-13-2018, 02:56 PM

What a nice place.

Only you know how much the $40k figures into your retirement plans, but moving has a price as well, plus the fact you dig where you live.

I'd stay for the next few years and enjoy.

LakeCleElum · 05-13-2018, 03:22 PM

Nice place Paul - A friend that worked in the same building as you drove me by there a year ago. All I said was a guy on the Porsche Forum named Paul in your town had put up nice photo's of redoing his driveway a few yrs ago.....He immediately knew who it was.....

Regarding waiting a year? I'm in the same boat with my cabin at the Lake. I have offers, but dicided to wait a year....Thinking that peak can't be far away? Good luck on your retirement....

pavulon · 05-13-2018, 03:28 PM

If you like it and it’s sound, I’d stay put rather than buy an unknown and risk pouring good money after bad. A good house is always in demand.

Evans, Marv · 05-13-2018, 03:33 PM

If you like the place, stay. A year probably won't make much difference in the market, & most of your mortgage payment is going toward principal now anyway. So paying against the principal is probably more efficient than moving expenses, etc. I keep hearing about the lack of housing and the buyers' market, so it might work out in your favor.

KFC911 · 05-13-2018, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seahawk

What a nice place.

Only you know how much the $40k figures into your retirement plans, but moving has a price as well, plus the fact you dig where you live.

I'd stay for the next few years and enjoy.

Yep...I'd be parked there until retirement...then move once

Baz · Baz's Garage

I agree with everyone else - I would stay put. I don't see the market dropping which means you would only benefit by waiting to list it. I'm not a real estate expert though so take that for what it's worth.

Doing the touch ups you mentioned would help when you sell it.

Good luck regardless of what you decide, Paul!

rwest · rwest's Garage

Sellers market means that you’ll pay top dollar to buy a smaller house and because the price will be lower, more people will be bidding against you.

I agree to stay put until you’re ready to move.

Paul K · Paul K's Garage

Small world! My wife graduated from Cle Elum HS!

Interested to know who you know that works at the office!

Quote:

Originally Posted by LakeCleElum

Nice place Paul - A friend that worked in the same building as you drove me by there a year ago. All I said was a guy on the Porsche Forum named Paul in your town had put up nice photo's of redoing his driveway a few yrs ago.....He immediately knew who it was.....

Regarding waiting a year? I'm in the same boat with my cabin at the Lake. I have offers, but dicided to wait a year....Thinking that peak can't be far away? Good luck on your retirement....

john70t · 05-13-2018, 04:27 PM

The 2008 panic was great for buying houses and boats and everything else expendable but not so good for selling. The herd will also scatter just as quickly as they eventually stick their head in the 30yr guillotine. Election years and uncertainty make for bad sales conditions. Springtime and pleasant news make for good sales conditions. A rapidly expanding local economy and small availability make for great conditions.

Don't just take the realtor's word on the estimate. $300k vs $350k means a quick sale and about the same commission to them. Do the homework and/or hire an appraiser. Work out an excel chart of all the recent sales pulled off Trulia/Zillow/Redfin/Realtor with all details. Get all the historic local demographics from the internet or city services and find out what will keep driving the local market. If everything is based on new jobs at the shark fin soup plant then selling earlier might be a better option. If it's something like biomed or jobs which are going to be around for a while then hold. I tend to be sentimental and hold investments for a long time.

ckcarr · ckcarr's Garage

You could buy a trailer in my town for $320,000
(not really but it's getting there)

The west is out of control right now as far as real estate. Where could you move? Having equity and cashing out should be secondary to a realistic plan...

Paul K · Paul K's Garage

All:

Thanks for the input. If we sell, we’ll rent a smal place until we head to the VI.

But since the consensus seems to be ‘stay’, that works for us!

Cheers,

Paul.

LakeCleElum · 05-13-2018, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul K

Small world! My wife graduated from Cle Elum HS!

Interested to know who you know that works at the office!

Mike Hovde - Retired OSP Truck Enforcement? Ring a bell..........

HardDrive · 05-13-2018, 06:38 PM

All I can offer is this: I don't see a dramatic downturn for another 5 years. Leveling off, certainly.

LWJ · 05-13-2018, 06:48 PM

I am a contrarian.

SELL

Why? You don't know what tomorrow will bring. Take your profit. To hold is speculation.

That said, I am actively looking to buy more real estate currently. Our end games are different.

Question for Paul, what are prices like in BVI?

Thanks!

island911 · 05-13-2018, 07:25 PM

You don't know what tomorrow will bring.

Sure, but, aside from death, he knows they need some place to live.

Even if the market holds flat, (projections say increase) they've come out ahead in rent not purchased. And they have a nicer, more comfortable existence.

If the market falters then just how much would it have to slide to make staying not a good call?

I'll add, selling is just as speculative as not selling. But not selling is less work.

McLovin · 05-13-2018, 10:08 PM

Three interest rate hikes planned for 2018, and three more for 2019, will cool prices. It's math.

RKDinOKC · RKDinOKC's Garage

Easy...Since not in a hurry, list if top dollar for area and don't come off the price. If someone buys, great, if not great.

Jims5543 · 05-14-2018, 03:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RKDinOKC

Easy...Since not in a hurry, list if top dollar for area and don't come off the price. If someone buys, great, if not great.

What I was going to post, sellers market and the market is very very hot.

Add another 50K to the price and list at that. then start packing and looking for a rental.

Will another 100K profit make you move now?

The market is hot, I think it will stay that way for at least 1 more year, I do not see a reason for it to drop right now. I am still shell shocked from 2008 so I am watching more closely this time, I actually saw the 2008 crash coming in 2007 and am pissed I did not see it n 2006 when the early signs were apparent in hindsight.

All that said, I see no reason the market is going to dive in the next year or two, if anything, it seems like it is getting some steam behind it right now and will be a wild ride for the next 2-3 years.

List at 380 and see what happens. Not sure how common your architecture is there but that is a really cool design that might be making your house stand out.

KFC911 · 05-14-2018, 03:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McLovin

Three interest rate hikes planned for 2018, and three more for 2019, will cool prices. It's math.

Yep....the "once in a lifetime" period of ultra-cheap interest rates, and it's impact on housing is soon to be history...a.good thing imo.

That said...moving twice sux twice as much as moving once...I'd stay put