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-   -   Grab your crystal balls with one hand and your history books with the other! (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/porsche-911-technical-forum/197152-grab-your-crystal-balls-one-hand-your-history-books-other.html)

Adrian Thompson 12-16-2004 01:21 PM

Grab your crystal balls with one hand and your history books with the other!
 
So, following up on my previous post on what car to consider I got to thinking. Now that's always a dangerous proposition, but I can't resist:). I was wondering how the Porsche enthusiast community has changed over time and where it's going.

So TONG FIRMLY IN CHEEk, but looking for true enlightenment here goes.

What were people's views 5, 10, 15 years ago? 15 years ago the 87-89 G50 cars were new, the 964 C4 was just out. How were these cars perceived back then? Were they nice enough but overly complicated and too dang heavy compared with real (pre 74) 911's:D. Those 'real' :) long hoods were the 15 year old cars and the 2.7's, SC's were probably the staple of the late model used market.

These day's the SC's and Carrerea's are a large part of the enthusiast community, long hood prices seem to be going up daily :eek: and 996/968's are viewed with suspicion as they are too heavy and diluted to be a real drivers car:rolleyes:, also plagued with reports of RMS seal issues etc.

Where will we be in the future? five years down the line the first Boxsters will be 12 years old, the first 996's will be 10 years old. Will they be creeping onto the enthusiast sceen? BTW when I say enthusiast, I mean the people who inhabit this type of board, I'm not saying enthusiasts don't drive them today, just a different type if you follow me.

15 years down the line the last of the Carrera's will be 30 year old cars. Will they be rocketing up like long hoods now? Will 996's be seen similar to how the late Carrera's are today? As good easy to work on daily driver/track capable cars with known easy fixes for things like RMS, much like Carrera tensioner upgrades for early cars. Will Carrera3.5 have changed his name to 996_3.8 and be detailing the build up of a 996 engine using 997 S parts and true dry sump to build a 3.8L 400 hp daily driver that can give a 996 GT3 a run for its money ? Will 986's be seen as a great mid engined car that makes a cool daily drive/track car. Or will it be relegated to low cost throw away car that costs more to maintain than it's worth, similar to how many people view the 924/944 series cars today. Or will they have languished worthless for years prior to making a 914/6 phoenix esc rise from the ashes of contempt to the height of cool:cool:.

Please note, I DO NOT prescribe to any of the prejudices that I'm referring too re 914/924/944/986/996 cars, I'm just pointing out often voiced views of others.

It's funny when I look at myself over the last 15 years. Back then I had just graduated university in the UK and started work. I'd scrapped the money together to buy a Davrian kit car
(ha, I bet I've fooled 99% of you with that one, google it) and 911's were way off my radar due to cost. A 944 turbo was the stuff of (automotive) fantasy to me, but cost more than my new house! Ten years ago I'd just moved the US and was seduced by V8 torque. Five years ago I was getting married, selling my race car and considering a used 944 turbo that I ended up not buying:frown:. Today I'm looking at 911's in a couple of years and wondering how I ever afford to live in the UK! In 15 years one kid will be in collage and the other just finished, I'll be retired early having just sold my company (not yet stated) for millions http://www.pelicanparts.com/support/smileys/lol2.gif and placing an order for my new 999 series 911 GT3.

Thanks for listening to my musings, please pull out your crystal balls with one hand and your history books with the other. Enlighten me as to the future and educate me on the past.

Thanks

P.S. I've never used smilies on an board before but thought I'd try in an atempt to make sure i didn't offend any one.

widebody911 12-16-2004 01:27 PM

I had a '72 911 back when the C2 first came out, and I went to the dealer one time for a part. The sales droids treated me like ass when the saw me roll up in an older model. I remember seeing a new C2 in the showroom with the engine lid up, and I thought to myself "I'd love to have that engine in my car!"

Jay H 12-16-2004 02:38 PM

I'll throw my $.02 and guesses in...

I remember the C4's introduction in 1988. That was written up as an incredible car and definitely was the 911's biggest change up until that point, maybe even rivaling the 993 to 996 changes... I read auto mags more than once call the outgoing 3.2's pretty dated cars and it was time for Porsche to update the 911.

In 15 years, the Boxster will be just like the current 944/924. It will probably be too expensive to fix an abused, high mile car so resale values might be very low on these. Nice cars will only be a few thousand more, so unless you want a project 986, you'll just wait for a nice one to come around. Porsche built too many 986's to have many be collectible.

The 996 and 997 WILL get down to the enthusiast buyers. I bet there will be some guys/gals that grew up lusting for a 996 and will view the older air cooled cars as too old for their taste. The aftermarket will be in full gear on these cars with probably many mods to extract more power than what we can do currently. I just spent 2 hours driving a 2002 C4S yesterday, and man, it was a fun ride after I got used to it. It's still a sports car...

I would assume Porsche will stop supporting the parts for even 3.2's and 964's as time marches on.

The long hood 911's probably will get too expensive (hard to find parts and expensive parts) for daily driving cars. The 2.7's, SC and 3.2's will also be getting up there in age and less and less will be drivers and more and more will either get parted out/junked, left in tatters (but still running!) or become more of a weekend, fun car. More and more will be restored to better than new and spend their lives trailered to shows or driven only on sunny Sundays (kinda like 356's and really early 911's are now). I do feel the SC's and 3.2's will really last quite awhile (due to the better rust protection and bullet proof construction). Again, bad cars will cost too much to restore as compared to just buying an already restored or well preserved car to begin with.

The 964's will continue to suffer the same fate as the 2.7 cars. People will dismiss them as problematic, too complicated and resale values will probably fall below 3.2's and 993's. Though I still feel the 1993 and 1994 model year 964's are some of the more bullet proof 911's ever built and are a great value for the performance you get (but I'm a biased 964 owner...).

It remains to be seen how the 993 will fare, since I've been reading about more and more carbon buildup problems (or whatever that emissions problem is called) on 993 boards on the web. That expensive problem may or may not affect the 993's high current image in the 911 world.

The electronic brains in 964's and 993's will probably be pretty well decoded in 15 years and I bet there will be simple software available for diagnosis and warning light resetting right from a laptop or whatever device we'll be using then (making the more and more rare 'hammer' less and less needed).

I would bet too that to get our aging cars serviced, we'll have to most likely go to specialty shops that are very focused on these early cars. Less and less Porsche dealers will even care to service a 35 year old 1985 Carrera 3.2... Most mechanics will be born well after that car was introduced and probably wouldn't have the first clue as to how to fix stuff. "What do you mean I can't hook up a PC to it and fix the faults?"

I'd hate to have an early 996... Those will be labled right up there with 2.7's and early 964's due to their teething problems. More low resale values. High mileage early 996's are already below $30k. I bet they will sink much further (below $20k mark???)...

All in all, I would guess the '87 to '89 3.2's will always be in high demand as the 'classic 911', possibly the 993's as well (especially the '97 and '98 model years). I doubt good 911's will ever fall below the $10,000 mark (regardless of age) and like we all say, a good 911 is always at least a $20,000 car by the time you are done...

Sorry for the length...

Jay
90 964


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