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techweenie's Avatar
 
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Quote:
Originally posted by 74-911
There was a real estate boom/bubble/bust in the southwest and Texas in particular in the early 80's per the above. Someone at that time coined the phrase the "greater fool theory" to explain the psychology of speculative bubbles... a very descriptive term.

Jack
Wasn't that after the book "Megatrends" pronounced Texas as the boom mecca for the decade?

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Old 12-20-2005, 03:02 PM
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I have some prime tulip bulbs for sale!
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Old 12-20-2005, 03:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by techweenie
Wasn't that after the book "Megatrends" pronounced Texas as the boom mecca for the decade?
I believe that is correct. The boom was financed mainly by the S&L's which at the time were being run like Enron, Adelphia, etc. Notice there are no longer any S&L's. In fact one of our current presidents brothers was heavily involved in one of the S&L failures in Colorado.

There have been so many booms and busts here fueled by the vagaries of the oil business you kind of get used to it I guess. As someone above mentioned, maybe tulips are making a comeback.
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Old 12-20-2005, 06:41 PM
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In the Porsche case, especially right now with the early models (i.e. 73 and previous), even if a T is 20k and that is usually a very nice car, the question I have as a car person is that when I look around at that price, and see what else I can buy, the Porsche is alot of fun, has iconic style, and is an excellently engineered car. I realize there are "fun" Cobalts, Mustang Gt's and Sti's that can be had for not too much more, but I also think the cars are still excellent values for the money--depending upon condition.
There is a purity to th e911, and a soul others jsut don't have.
I don't know about 215k RS's, but a real good T in the high teens to low twenties should be fairly safe down the line...Just my .02
Old 12-20-2005, 08:02 PM
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Old 12-20-2005, 09:01 PM
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yeh good ol' Neal Bush -- a lot of people lost their life savings...
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Old 12-20-2005, 09:04 PM
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Back in 89 Aston Martin was the featured Marque at Laguan Seca. Right after Enzo died. The Astons got pulled up in price by their boot straps as well. My DB4 was worth about $100K, then dropped, now its worth about that, or more, again. I know someone who sold a DB4GT for $1.1 million in 89, I think they're going now for $500K-$750K. I need to revisit my antique car insurance again.
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Old 12-20-2005, 09:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by AbbyAk
even if a T is 20k and that is usually a very nice car, the question I have as a car person is that when I look around at that price, and see what else I can buy, the Porsche is alot of fun, has iconic style, and is an excellently engineered car.
Correct. A good used Porsche is better than a new anything. I'm not saying these cars aren't worth it, but whether or not we're looking at inflated prices.
Old 12-20-2005, 11:05 PM
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And again, I look at what I can buy for 20k.... Whether you are an early guy or not, 20k can buy a very nice Carrera, a very very nice SC/midyear car , a very nice early T etc.. I look around as to what else 20k will buy in other brands....

As to inflated prices, 5-8 yrs ago I could buy a very nice T for less than 10k... They did make alot of early cars, but those that were taken care of properly/restored properly are at a premium. Hard to say long term, but I tell you what, I can spend hours i the garage tinkering and just looking at them..not many brands in that range can I say the same about..
Old 12-21-2005, 12:14 AM
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will you guys please stop with the serious posts so they can get on with their catfight?
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Old 12-21-2005, 04:34 AM
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U boyz see the Trees but not the Forest....The major Asset classes are...RE, Stocks, Bonds, and Collectables...Since 1998 Collectables and RE has been on the Rise...Bonds have appreciated in value since the late 1980s.. Money flows to where investors have a favorable risk to reward ratio, when an asset becomes pricey there is more downside risk than upside reward. Then money will seek out an Asset class where there is favorable upside potential and smaller downside risk. So what yu have is a boom and bust business cycle. In the late 80's it was Italian Sports Cars and Cars and Art along with RE that made the big moves...This time around it seems that Antique Guns and Muscle Cars are the big movers along with RE. What is the prognoises as the cost of money increases RE and Collectables will give back some or most of their gains and it will be off to the races in the NOW undesirable Asset Class...Since none of these trends follows an exact timetable and tend to overlap each other it is sometimes difficult to see the Forest for the Trees...but if you look its there.
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Old 03-05-2006, 01:58 PM
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So Schmidt is a "FAKIR" and we all know PWDS is a cranky old man who wears Pendltons and chops wood in the forest. Now I guess we can add senility to the list as well.

Oh well it is SO NICE to see that the R Gruppe/Registry people get along so well together....it just makes me feel so warm and fuzzy all over...
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Old 03-05-2006, 02:15 PM
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I believe that the entire world is currently undergoing an "asset bubble" due to low interest rates and a flurry of cash around the globe chasing too few investments. Real Estate has been a major driver of the Porsche market, in my opinion, as people have refinanced their houses, and bought early 911s, 911RSs, and Speedsters, to name a few. It is my belief that we're all in store for a big Sunday-morning hangover, when interest rates increase (as they will as the value of the dollar declines in the future due to our trade and budget imbalances), and everyone's cheap mortgage turns into a huge monthly bill. At that moment in time, all of a sudden, the Porsche, Ferrari, or Muscle car that was bought with money borrowed against real estate will be the first to go.

Bottomline, look for the market to encounter a downturn just ahead of the real estate market...

-Wayne
Old 03-05-2006, 03:19 PM
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Randy, I'd like to buy your tulip bulbs... will you take my car in part trade?
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Old 03-05-2006, 03:21 PM
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what has driven the price of muscle cars is that as baby boomers get older they want the cars that they couldnt afford in their younger years. i have bought and sold several american muscle cars in the last few years and watched the prices go up... it is usually cars that are about 30 yrs old that is the sweet spot. first the 60's cars blew up in value, now the 70s are seeing some big kicks. early 911 sc and carreras may soon follow the muscle car pattern...?
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Old 03-05-2006, 03:59 PM
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"wears Pendltons and chops wood in the forest"
- doesn't everybody do that?

Tulip bulbs - sure! Just write your address on the back of a $300 bill, and I'll send you some pics of them.
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Old 03-05-2006, 05:18 PM
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Old 03-07-2006, 01:17 AM
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It is my belief that we're all in store for a big Sunday-morning hangover, when interest rates increase (as they will as the value of the dollar declines in the future due to our trade and budget imbalances), and everyone's cheap mortgage turns into a huge monthly bill. At that moment in time, all of a sudden, the Porsche, Ferrari, or Muscle car that was bought with money borrowed against real estate will be the first to go.

Bottomline, look for the market to encounter a downturn just ahead of the real estate market...

-Wayne [/B][/QUOTE]

It's caled a devaluation, the money in your pocket/bank account is suddenly worth a tenth of what it was yet your debt stays the same. How long till this happens? Well at a billion dollars a day for the war effort and China stocking up on American war bonds, my guess is pretty soon.
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Old 03-07-2006, 02:19 AM
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Dear Wayne:

Your right about the flurry of cash chasing too few HARD asset investments around the world. But the RE market is not the driving force... it is a symptom of a Low Interest envirnoment. If you as a lender or Stock market investor only receive a small return on investment you will seek a higher rate of return in another asset class. What has been driving this low interest rate envirnoment or should I say what has caused Interest Rates to resist Fed Rate increases is turmoil in the World. The US Treasuries are still considered to be safe haven investments. China has also been using US Bonds as a backstop for their own currency.

If the World Political situation moderates itself out vis a vis Iraq, Iran, N Korea, and Al Qadea U will see Interest Rates rise commencerate with the robustness of the World economy. as Bonds won't be needed for safe haven purposes. At that point those Hard Asset investments won't be so cheap to buy anymore and there will be an outflow into other investment classes. The US Stock market will the receipiant of that ouflow from hard assets as it is now considered to be trading at a 25% discount to value.

After 911 the USA found it necessary to decrease interest rates to keep the World Financial system liquid which avoided a deep economic downturn the likes of which havn't been seen since the 1930s.

With regards to those collectable autos taking a hit price wise first I rather think a sofftening in the RE market would be the first sign as the Big Ticket items show the first signs of weakness...and of course the non utilitarian auto or toy will be the first asset to hit the classified ads rather than the house.

Many Economists predict a soft landing for RE, however the softness of the landing will determined by its affordability factor . In markets where RE has become overly expensive a large correction is do and in other markets only a minor correction maybe warranted.
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Old 03-07-2006, 02:40 AM
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and we are already seeing a softening in the Real Estate market...

The problem with predicting exactly what is going to happen in an economy is similar to weather predictions or ecology... these are very complex systems with many highly interactive effects that can 'cause' a particular result. No one can really predict how soft a loanding will happen. But the overall trend is clear... and that is softening as noted above. In RE, in hard assets, and in our car prices...

Doesn't bother me one bit. I'd just as soon not have "investors" stirring our cars around anyway... much less speculators.

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Old 03-07-2006, 04:14 PM
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