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MRM MRM is offline
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Quote:
Originally posted by techweenie
Were any of you guys around in 1989-91?

The Ferrari market was 'bubbling' until the big drop in the Dow the end. Some Ferraris lost 70% of their value in a very short time.
That's not so bad. The dentist I had growing up moved his entire retirement savings into Mercedes 300 Gull Wings. They were beautiful. At one time they were worth $250k a piece. He had three or four of them. He didn't pay mcuh for them and then watched as their value skyrocketed. That was back in the late 80s and that was serious money.

He's still in practice.

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Old 03-07-2006, 04:12 PM
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Originally posted by SoCal911SC
I remember the crazy Ferrari market in the late 80s and early 90s.

I remember reading in one of the Ferrari market report newsletters during August of one of those years (I think it was 89 or 90) and how they were talking about Ferrari price appreciation that had been going for a few months at 20% per month!

I remember going into a shop that had a black Dino hardtop in very mediocre condition that had just changed hands for $250,000. And even plain old 308's were hitting $125,000.

And then it started to even drag up other cars, as I recall, old Jaguars were the ones that were closest on the coattails.

The collapse didn't seem to me to have anything to do with the stock market, but was simply a completely speculative bubble that had to end at some point. Kind of like a Ponzi scheme, or musical chairs. Speculators weren't buying the Ferraris because they thought they were really worth the $ over the long term, but were buying because they felt that they could catch some upside and flip it before the bubble burst. A lot of the cars being sold at huge $$ were the same cars, over and over again.

When the music stopped playing, the speculators started bailing, and bailing hard. And that's what caused the price collapes.

It was really an interesting phenomena. I don't think there was anything like it before, or since, at least near that same magnitude.
On this era Ferrari wasn't the exception, I saw counteless 79' 930's, (last year model in the states, before the 86' came back) going for 150K-200K, that was amazing!, cheers,Antonio.
Old 03-09-2006, 02:49 AM
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With Ferraris it was a Ponzi SCHEME....those cars would trade amongst the same group of owners and finally when the Music stopped the bottom dropped out and the last one in the Drivers seat crashed.


Also 67 Vettes hit 125K along with 59 Cad Convertible Eldos...but I don't believe that the other cars were being pulled by up by the Ferraris I think they had their own trajectory as collectables in of themselves.


The classic scenerio is when prices stop going up, meaning NO MORE PROFIT is to be made, no new money will come in ...prices will start to go down to sell, and with fewer or no buyers will usually esculate just as fast to the downside as it did to the up side.
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Old 03-10-2006, 03:58 PM
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Posted three+ years ago (before the marketplace forum). Interesting to read.
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Last edited by Fidalgo911S; 03-13-2009 at 09:23 PM..
Old 03-13-2009, 09:16 PM
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Wayne is a smart guy - called the economic downturn based upon housing on page 1.
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Old 03-13-2009, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Reaper930 View Post
Wayne is a smart guy - called the economic downturn based upon housing on page 1.
Thanks for the kudos, but I still believe that's just plain old common sense. The values of the classic cars appear to be holding up much better right now then I ever imagined. I thought that the car market would precede the housing market crash because I thought people would sell their cars before losing their houses. Well, it seems that the housing market has brought down the rest of the economy, and the people with cars are now suffering. We've seen 30-40% declines in the prices of these cars recently, and more is probably due to come. Ferrari 365 GTBs sold for $1.2M over the summer. There's one for sale "quick" at $750K. That's a huge drop in only a few months. I've been watching the 962 market, and that market certainly has started to correct itself recently.

-Wayne
Old 03-14-2009, 12:24 AM
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It seems then that this would be a good time to buy a 911. I found a '69 911t in nice (but unrestored) shape...asking price 20K. This will be my first 911 and would appreciate any input from other members.
I've been following the 911 forum for a while and found this particular topic very interesting. Being fairly new to this forum I hope this was an appropriate place (and time) to ask for advice.
Thanks in advance,
Joe
Old 03-14-2009, 03:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts View Post
I believe that the entire world is currently undergoing an "asset bubble" due to low interest rates and a flurry of cash around the globe chasing too few investments. Real Estate has been a major driver of the Porsche market, in my opinion, as people have refinanced their houses, and bought early 911s, 911RSs, and Speedsters, to name a few. It is my belief that we're all in store for a big Sunday-morning hangover, when interest rates increase (as they will as the value of the dollar declines in the future due to our trade and budget imbalances), and everyone's cheap mortgage turns into a huge monthly bill. At that moment in time, all of a sudden, the Porsche, Ferrari, or Muscle car that was bought with money borrowed against real estate will be the first to go.

Bottomline, look for the market to encounter a downturn just ahead of the real estate market...

-Wayne


If we go back to the OP, and the RS, I don't think that 200K is out of line for an authenticated RS. No matter how you slice it, that car will always be one of only about 1500 cars. The RS is a collectable toy for the super rich, and bubble pricing need not apply. I'm sorry, but ordinary folks just don't seem to get that not everybody sees value the way that ordinary folks do. I have friends who would never pay more than 2,000.00 for a car. Does that mean everybody should scrimp ?

In general, I think there is a trend right now in the magazines to flog old cars as investments. Most are not, but even so, if you can get a deal on a late model Carrera for under 20K, in the long run, you may have fun and break even. I still kick myself for not jumping on that nice one that sold here before Christmas for 14.5.

If you buy an early M3 right now, pay cash and hang on, in the long run you will be rewarded. There just aren't that many left, as most were driven to death. If you want a Porsche, get an 89 Carrera, or a nice 928 GT or GTS. While there may be a bubble, some people are begging you to buy their car. Guys like Wilhoit are picking them up. Someone sold a GTS on Rennlist a few weeks ago for under 20K. That is a deal. Now is a GOOD time to buy, if you are secure, and have your wits about you.

Bubble or not, some people always seem to buy right and sell at the ideal time. Others, like me, never seem to make or lose too much money on the cars they buy, because they either pay a little extra for the right car, or buy a cheap example because it is affordable. You will never get rich that way, but you won't go broke either. The guys who buy the GTSs for a premium from Wilhoit are the same ones who sell them back to him at a loss.

Now, as always, the question is, which kind of guy are you ?
Old 03-14-2009, 04:26 AM
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Though I certainly didn't buy my '83 Targa as an investment, I do like the believe that it's value will only go up. As mentioned in previous posts, right now it's the early cars that are starting to rise. Eventually the SCs will also. Back "in the day" Porsche didn't make very many cars and they were hand made. Because of the boom in our economy over the last several years, Porsche, as did other high end car manufactures did, made more cars.
From what I have read Porsche only imported 1,430 '83 911 Targas to the U.S. A total of a little over 11,000 over the course of 5 models years. I am not saying my car is a rare collectible, but ...... Where as the newer 911s were made in much larger numbers, far more complexity, quite a few cost cutting measures etc.

Now this applies to all makes of cars. As the complexity of the cars increases, when those cars get to the "age" of being a collectible, I don't think they will be desired. Who here will have a computer/engine analizer in their garage to work on their "classic" 2006 911, Boxter, etc? The whole collector car market is going to change dramatically in the coming years. People's live are more and more complex and hectic. So the desire to have a collectible car that is bare bones, simple straight forward, etc, will only increase. Which will be reflected in the values of 911s that are not ladened with computer controls, variable suspensions, etc. I know that at least for me, that is one of the key things I love about my 911. It is purpose built, straight forward, no complexity. Computer aides and the alike, I truely believe disconnects you from the driving experience. Don't get me wrong there are huge increases in performance because of these aides, but at the same time....
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Old 03-14-2009, 05:07 AM
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Originally Posted by DanielDudley View Post
If you buy an early M3 right now, pay cash and hang on, in the long run you will be rewarded. There just aren't that many left, as most were driven to death.
I tried! Through a friend I found a one-owner '89 M3 with less than 30,000 miles - in fantastic shape sitting under a cover in the garage. He wouldn't sell. Yet.

All the other E30 and, especially, E36 M3's have been driven by Joe-I-think-I'm-a-racer into the earth. Horrible.
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Old 03-14-2009, 07:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts View Post
I've been watching the 962 market, and that market certainly has started to correct itself recently.
How nice for you! Who cares about VALUES? All we end-users are concerned with is PRICE. Cars are lousy investments -- unless you stick them in a plastic bag in the garage. I want a nice car that I can DRIVE. I have a good friend who is a fairly well-known collector (yes, he has a 962 among other things...) who talked me out of countless "projects" that he knew I couldn't afford. He bought all of his wonderful cars (which all look more like well-used tools than lawn ornaments) at times when the market was at rock-bottom and has always waited to cull the herd until the market was red hot. He's been in the game for 30 years and always counsels patience. He backed me out of a few hopeless money pits before handing me his cell phone to talk to a buddy selling what I really wanted (White-over-black/3.2 Motronic/G-50/Air/15K on a full rebuild, 7's and 8's, CS tail). I paid full asking price, which was still less than half of what a "project" would have cost. I don't care whether the market goes up or down. I just drive. And grin like an idiot every time that I do...
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Old 03-14-2009, 08:10 AM
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Too many of us tend to use dollar figures as a measure of value in a given
sector. Is a '72 911 T worth $20,000? That depends upon which day you measure
$20,000!
As inflation turns to hyperinflation, $20,000 will diminish in purchasing power.
Take a look at the falling Euro, to see my point in action. Euros will be worth less
than a dollar very soon. When our trillions of printed "stimulus" fake currency hits
the mainstream, the dollar will fall like a rock.
My point is, an early 911 will always be a desireable commodity to a certain group
of people with the means to own them. The dollar figure is more a measure of the
value of a dollar, not the value of an early 911.
That said, to address the first post in this thread, if you can afford a '72 E, buy it and
enjoy it. You're not getting any younger! Best of luck to all of us!
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Old 03-14-2009, 08:56 AM
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Has the bubble burst or are we still holding each other up?
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Old 07-10-2010, 04:39 PM
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Something you have to factor in when assessing the value of rare (ish) cars is the international values. Cars that are in the >30k range have an international market but cars under that under that amount, have a more local one. While the value of the US$ has gone down relative to many other currencies over the last few years, certain cars (even though in US$ they have actually remained at high levels) have actually become far more affordable to foreign buyers. So in the international market, the potential US purchaser has to compete with more possible buyers from further away. One sad aspect of declining values of certain cars is that more and more are less likely to be restored or maintained properly..... but that being said , if you're a Porsche nut, I'm not sure if ANY market pressures would change how I deal with my car. Cheers.
Old 07-11-2010, 08:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Fidalgo911S View Post
Has the bubble burst or are we still holding each other up?
Prices for certain cars are still at all time highs. That would include '73 RS, 356 Speedsters (and other 356, esp. the open cars), pre-72 Ferraris, etc.

For example, the '73 RS that is the subject of this thread was apparently an all original low mileage car that sold for $215K in 2005. If it truly was a low mileage, original car, it would certainly be worth more than that today, possibly significantly more (50%+ more).
Old 07-11-2010, 09:15 AM
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Greater Fool Theory

Any time a segment of a market goes up at a unnatural rate such as the SCAL housing market, and the people who are driving the market have no intentions of ever living in the homes they are buying, the market will claps. When it drops it goes down even faster because most of the buyers are over extended.

That is not the case for early 911s. Most people buy a early 911 to keep and USE. Not "flip" for thee quick buck as was the case with muscle cars or Italian cars. It is nice to see the value of your car going up but it does not make me want to sell it. The exception to this would be pressure due to loss of job or illness.

I have a friend who owns a 1965 427 Shelby Cobra and also owns a very high quality Cobra Replica because the original has become to valuable to drive except for special occasions. Maybe cars like a 1973 RS Carrera falls into that category.

The only thing I hate to see is when someone buys a early 911 only to put it in a garage and not use it. The car is meant to be driven. Just my opinion.
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Old 07-11-2010, 09:30 AM
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To add to what si Banker has said, while it is nice to see the value of the air cooled cars go up, I don't want to see mine go up too much. I drive the piss out my SC, if I were to own pre 74 911, I wouldn't want to drive it on the street so much for fear of someone T-boning it. It would take the fun out of owning it.
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Old 07-11-2010, 09:40 AM
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To add to what si Banker has said, while it is nice to see the value of the air cooled cars go up, I don't want to see mine go up too much. I drive the piss out my SC, if I were to own pre 74 911, I wouldn't want to drive it on the street so much for fear of someone T-boning it. It would take the fun out of owning it.
I agree buddy, as soon as a car gets beyond a certain value, it becomes an "asset".
Old 07-11-2010, 11:38 AM
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Mbs

The real bleeding will start when interest rates begin to rise, which they have to. You can not cut taxes, increase spending and have a war without starting inflation.

MBS, mortgage backed securities, are bundles of home mortgages which are put into pools and sold on wall street to pension plans and investor es. What will happen when interest rates are 9% to 12% and the MBS only has a yield of 5%. All of this is based on the assumption that everybody pays their mortgage payment.

There is a financial tidal wave coming and inspite of what people say a car is not an investment and in the case of most Porsches they are a luxury and to be enjoyed. If they go up in value so much the better.
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Last edited by si Banker; 07-11-2010 at 12:45 PM.. Reason: forgot something
Old 07-11-2010, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
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You can not cut taxes.....
I need to move to Texas. The last tax cut that I received was seven years ago (the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003), and that tax cut will expire at the end of the year.

Quote:
MBS, mortgage backed securities, are bundles of home mortgages which are put into pools and sold on wall street to pension plans and investors. What will happen when interest rates are 9% to 12% and the MBS only has a yield of 5%.
All bonds will fall in value when interest rates increase (interest rate risk). Personally, I don't think rates will go to 9%-12%, but there is a risk that they could. MBS issues have interest rate risk and credit risk. I think a properly researched and purchased trench of a MBS can be profitable. You just must do your homework.

Quote:
There is a financial tidal wave coming...
I assume that you are short in a big way?

Quote:
A Carrera RS sold on the bay for 215K! How many 911T's have you seen sell for more than 20K?
That RS was a great buy at $215K. The early 911T's (for a 2+ car) are holding their own.

I know a few guys that make money on Porsche cars, but the rest of us lose money (but have a great time doing so).

Old 07-13-2010, 11:49 AM
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