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Fidalgo911S's Avatar
 
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Porsche bubble?

This may be OT but does anybody else see a Porsche bubble out there?

A Carrera RS sold on the bay for 215K! How many 911T's have you seen sell for more than 20K?

It's getting a little unnerving. Reminds me of that beautiful Ferrari Daytona go for $1M in 1986 only to plummet and go for around $90K in 1995.

It's making me re-think the idea of looking for a '72E. Maybe I'll wait a few years.....

Old 12-20-2005, 09:10 AM
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I thought the same thing. American Muscle cars that were 20-30k few years ago sell for over 100k on Barret Jackson.
Crazyyyy times
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Old 12-20-2005, 09:13 AM
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that RS for 215K most likely went that high because it was a low mileage and original car. he will probably just put it in a climate controlled garage as a piece of art.
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Old 12-20-2005, 09:19 AM
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I believe you are correct, and that the bubble is linked to housing values.

That's one reason I deal with the more 'affordable' end of the early 911 spectrum (<$25K).
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Old 12-20-2005, 09:30 AM
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"...bubble is linked to housing values."

Exactly my thought. High R/E values coupled with low mortgage rates and heavy refinance activity put alot of people in the market for toys they always wanted when they were kids.
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Old 12-20-2005, 09:38 AM
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I don't think you can call a $20k value on an early 911 part of a bubble, as long as American muscle cars have such silly prices.

IMO, a bubble exists where what people will pay for something far exceeds its intrinsic value. Such as $1 million for a craftsman style 2br house on 1/4 acre. Or for an old Buick.

You could argue that the $215 for the RS was a high price, except that if it's really that original and that good. $20-40k for early 911s is perfectly reasonable and sustainable given the production volume, the low number of survivors and the inherent desirability of such a beautiful car.
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Old 12-20-2005, 09:44 AM
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Actually, I wouldn't consider that particular RS to be all that great, condition wise. Sounds to me like it was sold out of a Mexican chop-shop. Here's a link to a thread on the S registry.

http://www.early911sregistry.org/forum/showthread.php?t=8891
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Old 12-20-2005, 09:56 AM
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Quote:
a thread on the S registry
Hmm, is it just my perception or do a lot of those guys post like they have something large and angular wedged in their ass?
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Old 12-20-2005, 10:49 AM
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by pwd72s
[B] Sounds to me like it was sold out of a Mexican chop-shop. QUOTE]




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Old 12-20-2005, 11:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by RallyJon
IMO, a bubble exists where what people will pay for something far exceeds its intrinsic value. Such as $1 million for a craftsman style 2br house on 1/4 acre.
In some areas of West L.A., you'd need another million.

I personally think that the value of excellent early 911's will continue to rise. Simple supply and demand. Every day it seems another 911T has been turned into an RS clone. (Remember the '80's when early 911's were "improved" by turning them into all-white slant nose replicas?) Then there are the cars that by Spring 2006 will be unusable rusted piles of junk. That leaves fewer and fewer quality cars left.

Ten years ago, if you told the 356 community that excellent Speedsters would be selling for more than $100,000, they would have laughed. Now those guys are laughing all the way to the bank.

Bottom line-- if you can find a '72 911E, don't tell anyone about it. Just buy it. QUICK.
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Old 12-20-2005, 11:40 AM
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IMO the prices has slowed or paused in the past few months. Excellent original early 911 prices rose sharply in the past 2-3 years and seem to have stabilized.
Not-so-excellent cars almost seem a little cheaper than they were a few months ago, when they were caught up in the 'get them while you can' hysteria.

Having said that I'm not sure prices are going to drop. If the economy takes a dive they almost surely will though.
Old 12-20-2005, 11:57 AM
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Quote:
seem a little cheaper than they were a few months ago
Back when the sun was shining, and the weather was balmy and the ground wasn't covered with snow and the roads weren't covered with salt? Remember that a substantial fraction of the market for easily rusted old cars takes the winter off. Better wait until May or June before you go calling a trend.
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Old 12-20-2005, 12:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by ubiquity0
IMO the prices has slowed or paused in the past few months. Excellent original early 911 prices rose sharply in the past 2-3 years and seem to have stabilized.
Sloan has a '73 911E for sale at $56,000. Wonder what it will sell for?
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Old 12-20-2005, 12:38 PM
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Were any of you guys around in 1989-91?

The Ferrari market was 'bubbling' until the big drop in the Dow the end. Some Ferraris lost 70% of their value in a very short time.
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Old 12-20-2005, 01:11 PM
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I wonder to what extent price dictates elasticity?

When a well-off guy's portfolio drops 20%, he doesn't stop eating steak and start eating dogfood. However, he may order a $100 bottle of wine instead of a $250 bottle when dining out.

I think that similar math works for collector toys like early 911s. In a mild downturn or confidence crisis, the same guy who would pass on a $100k speedster can pick up a sensible collector car like an early 911 without feeling too much of a pinch.

When 356 Speedster or rare Ferrari values doubled, tripled, then tumbled, 356 coupes and 308s moved much more gradually.
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Old 12-20-2005, 01:40 PM
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Wanna talk about bubble? Take a look at VW buses! I'm seeing people asking $10k for beat-down no-engine-havin' corner-window deluxes. Clean, straight, complete SO-42 (65-67) Westfalias are closing in $20k; a low mileage hardtop westy pulled down $90k (yes, ninety thousand) a while back. 23-windows seem to start in the mid $20k range now.
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Old 12-20-2005, 01:53 PM
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"Were any of you guys around in 1989-91?

The Ferrari market was 'bubbling' until the big drop in the Dow the end. Some Ferraris lost 70% of their value in a very short time."

I remember that. There were 60's jag xke's selling for up to 80k IIRC. They are now down to 20-30k. There will be a rise and fall. Demand always does.
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Old 12-20-2005, 02:08 PM
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Hey! Another cat fight!

Where is your shop, BTW?
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Old 12-20-2005, 02:21 PM
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Old 12-20-2005, 02:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by SoCal911SC
I remember the crazy Ferrari market in the late 80s and early 90s.
The collapse didn't seem to me to have anything to do with the stock market, but was simply a completely speculative bubble that had to end at some point. Kind of like a Ponzi scheme, or musical chairs. Speculators weren't buying the Ferraris because they thought they were really worth the $ over the long term, but were buying because they felt that they could catch some upside and flip it before the bubble burst. A lot of the cars being sold at huge $$ were the same cars, over and over again.

When the music stopped playing, the speculators started bailing, and bailing hard. And that's what caused the price collapes.
There was a real estate boom/bubble/bust in the southwest and Texas in particular in the early 80's per the above. Someone at that time coined the phrase the "greater fool theory" to explain the psychology of speculative bubbles... a very descriptive term.

Jack

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Old 12-20-2005, 02:46 PM
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