The Poisson Random Variable applies
 

So when Napoleon needed an estimate for how many of his soldiers would perish per year from accidental horse kicks (a good general will want to know these things), he employed a mathematician. The result was the Poisson random variable.
It describes lots of things: how many emails you'll likely get in the next hour, the probability a cop will be patrolling your street during the hour that your robbed, and also
MY TENSIONER NOISE.
Yes, that's right. I got the banjo bolt, put it all back together without doing anything but changing the cam cover gaskets and letting oil leak all over the place, and now I don't hear it.
Confusticate.
Now I'm wondering if fan bearing (what's behind that thing, the alternator?) is chiming in with a little noise if it's own just to confuse me!
I'll have to check that out now.
The chain was tight after a few cranks...odd.

I'm running, and always run 20/50 weight oil. Is this right? The weather now is in the 60s during driving time...I expected thicker oil would increase pressure, but maybe it actually decreases it in those tight spots...
Hate to bring up another oil weight discussion, but...


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Kurt B
1984 911 Carrera Cabriolet
75 914 1.8

[This message has been edited by Kurt B (edited 01-08-2001).]

Kurt,

I don't think it is the Poisson Variable at work here!

In Industrial/Organizational Psychology it is called The Hawthorne Effect ... in Experimental Physics it is The Observer Problem! Just by examining your tensioners and cam chains, you altered the circumstances and conditions under which they were operating, and thus, altered the results of the experiment! The late Dr. Richard P. Feynman (of CalTech, Los Alamos, and the Challenger Commission) would have a long and eloquent explanation, but the short version works, too!

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Warren Hall
1973 911S Targa

My even-simpler explanation is what I call the 'Jack Magic' principle. If something is broken, and I fiddle with it a little, even if I never really get to the root of the trouble, I've got a one third chance of making it better (it's the same logic that used to lead people to bang on the side of tube-based televisions). Of course, one third of the time the problem stays the same, and one third of the time it gets worse.

But 33% of the time, people think I've got real skills!

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Jack Olsen
1973 911 T (3.6) sunroof coupe

Indeed. It seems that we change things just by looking at them. And at any given time, measurements are what they are - only for that measurement - and then they change, even if they're still the same (Heizenberg Uncertainty Principle). The work of these modern scientists has unseated the Newtonian assumption that nature has LAWS. In fact, they are CONVENTIONS, which will not always apply with the constancy we had assumed.

Philosophy and nuclear physics are pretty heady subjects for an automotive BBS, but then my friends here are far from ordinary.

And finally, here is what's happening: Cars respond to love. Many have been the times I have diligently fixed something like a hanging trim piece, only to find the cigarette lighter suddenly, mysteriously, works again. My car always runs smoother after a wash and vacuum. This, I believe is the Hawthorne effect Warren suggested.

Happy transubstantiation!

Strictly speaking, my changes could have had an impact, if I had CHANGED something related to the operation...but of course, Warren is right that the car's tensioners would be functioning under two distributions, one before I tinkered and a new one after I tinkered. Hopefully the one after I tinkered has a curve with a lot of Area in "No tensioner noise" portion, and an itsy bitsy-barely above the x-axis area in the "making tensioner noise" portion. We'll see.

I agree with Jack on the putting things back together phenomenon, except for me, the 10% that I'm considered a miracle worker for doing nothing, usually turn out (2 or 3 weeks later) to cause a problem 4 times larger than the original problem. Jack will have send his Good Side of the Force waves to my neck of the woods!


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Kurt B
1984 911 Carrera Cabriolet
75 914 1.8

I'm beaming, Kurt. Apparently someone paid attention in stats class. then I looked at your profile.

I'm not sure about your judgment though. Why would anyone leave a perfectly good low-paying, underappreciated job trying to teach math to high school kids, just to make more money playing computer games? It's like you prefer to have money, and achievable goals. Whatsup with that?

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'83 SC

Story 1)
Jeff Gord*n (slightly misspell kid's name for security) took the glasses off my face and put them on. "Look, I'm Mr. Bingham," he said to the rest of the class.
"Take those off Jeff," I said, "you look like a retard with those on."
Guess what I got written up for? Calling a kid a "retard". In context, since the kid and I had a good rapport, the joke was well taken. I just happened to send him to the office a day later for really acting up, and he spilled the beans on me. So guess what, the student won! Fine with me, I got called to the office the next day.
I was to sign this document
At the bottom it said "If you dispute this claim, do so below..." I put "I resign"
I gathered my chess sets (for the kids who finished classwork early), my Word for Word cards, and other things and walked out.
As I was leaving, I told the students who had gathered around (musta been real exciting for the school!) "I told you guys you wouldn't see me here long (about 5 months), because teaching is really only for people who can't do anything else."
Best decision I ever made.

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Kurt B
1984 911 Carrera Cabriolet
75 914 1.8

Tensionophobia – An extremely common, albeit abnormal condition, characterized by a depressed emotional state, and fear of catastrophic failure resulting from the imaginary ill health of the chain tensioner assembly on a Porsche.

So, Warren, what you're saying is..."there is no spoon?" Whoa.

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Clay Mcguill www.geocities.com/the912guy

Kurt, you're a trip man......... I like that in a person. http://www.pelicanparts.com/ultimate/wink.gif

P.S. Not THEEEE Jeff Gordon was it??

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Tyson Schmidt
72 911 Cabriolet