What's your economic outlook for the coming months?

Wayne 962 · Wayne 962's Garage

Hi all. In the past I have solicited the feedback and opinions of this group to try to gauge the 'business' and economic environment of our customers. Although you guys are not exactly our typical customers (believe it or not), the feedback that I have received in the past had proved invaluable.

So, my questions to you are as follows:

- Do you see yourself scaling back on your P-car purchases? Perhaps putting off that brake upgrade, but still replacing the discs?

- Do you plan to purchase any Porsche type stuff this holiday season (hats, t-shirts, etc.)

- Are you planning on working on your car yourself, instead of taking it to the mechanic?

- If times get tougher, is the 'absolute lowest price' the only thing that matters, or will other value-added things still hold weight (like this site, our expanded parts offering, etc.)

- Any general comments about employment, spending, and travel?

One note about the offensive posts that have been posted recently. Not unlike the open society in the US, we have an open forum here with relatively low-requirements for membership. Sometimes, there will be people who will take advantage of that. I do my best to keep the topics somewhat on topic, if not interesting at times. I do not read the board 24 hrs a day, and cannot instantly respond to problems. I do appreciate people emailing me if there are problems - this is how I find out about them 99% of the time. The fact is that there will always be one or two bad eggs among the group (if not bad eggs, then at least people with poor taste). Their overall goal is to get attention. The more you post about it, and the more 'outraged' you become, the more it will happen, because the person posting is looking for this reaction and looking to stir things up. So, I usually just delete these things, do what I can to prevent people from posting like that again, and we move on...

Now, please give me your comments on the economy - don't comment on any previous offensive posts please.

-Wayne

Eagle Keeper · Eagle Keeper's Garage

Wayne

I'm still planning on a complete engine rebuild and possibly a trany rebuild, and I'm in the USAF!! We CAN NOT allow this "man" to effect our lives in any way what so ever!!! If we allow this to happen in any way we have lost. I know that we are in uncertain times right now, but we can not allow this to effect our daily lives.

Jason Wilson
F-15E Crew Chief
'79sc

PS has anyone heard from Leland. I haven't been able to keep up as of late!!

MonkeyBoy · 10-09-2001, 02:46 PM

I agree with the above... but having been laid off a week after the terrorism - and because of it - non-essential car projects will be put on hold for me until at least January.

ras911 · ras911's Garage

Wayne
I would suspect that the weak economy of late will primarily affect,in addition to those unfortunate to be unemployed as a consequence, the people who had too much cash laying around and bought expensive new cars, boats, etc with it. Of course there will be fall out from the recent unemployment additions and from a lower consumer confidence level due to the uncertainty surrounding the terrorist attacks, the economy and the deletion of wealth due to the bear market.
However, in your business plan it is important to keep in mind that with previous crises, both the economy and the stock market rebounded sharply . This time will not be different.
The best advice that I have seen so far came from none other than Warren Buffet in a message to his managers: Work hard, be cheerful with your clients and as usual be relentless with fixed costs. The exact text can be found on the Berkshire Hathaway website. His message is clear; continue to do the things that make companies and nations great.
In answer to your questions , part sales for older cars should be somewhat recession proof as people tend to cut back on new car purchases and instead maintain or improve their existing autos in tough times.

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Bob
1982 911SC Targa
PCA - Founders Region

davis911s · davis911s's Garage

Well lets see.

1. My wife and I have our first baby due in Feb/Marcc

2. I am thinking of leaving the military (after 13+ years) and returning to school.

3. If I go back to school, it is on the other side of the country, and must move my family there.

Economically it's not the best. But hey I honestly think my life is going great and I love it!

As for the Porsche, yes I will downscale the work I want/need to do but not totally.

Price is VERY important, but I am going to try to buy as much as I can (new) through Pelican.

Just my situation.

Shawn

Jim T · 10-09-2001, 03:03 PM

I have a good income in a field that is not dramatically affected by the economy.

I have enough cash on hand to last me a good 4 or 5 years (maybe more) if I had to.

Still, no extraneous spending for me, at least in the next year. No investments, in the stock market, real estate, nothing, at least until mid year 2002.

That was the plan well in place before Sept. 11. The economy was tanking well before that.

Bill Douglas · 10-09-2001, 03:21 PM

My 911 is quite high in my priorities, so I will cut back on other things if I have to (I still don't have too though). The 911 doesn't like to be not driven, and especially doesn't like to be not maintained, so to avoid some really big bills I will continue to look after it as I always have. And I'll go and live in a tent if I have to

canyonlands · 10-09-2001, 04:06 PM

I am in a stable position financially and don't see it changing for the worse. I will soon need some tools and routine maint. parts for my 2000 BMW R1100S (another Pelican specialty) and I'm looking to once again become a Porsche owner within the next few months. I'm buying used so it will undoubtedly need something.
I too believe that unless attacks resume on US soil, that the economy will rebound in short order. Worse case, I see the downturn lasting until just past the new year. I'm no financial expert though. I hope for everyone's sake that it's over quick and that these fine bulletin boards are unaffected.

Very best regards to all.

lsolon · 10-09-2001, 04:50 PM

Since I just got laid off and have sent out over 20 resumes without a response, i think I will have to cut back on all spending. This means the P-Car. Thank god I bought all the parts that will help in me fixing my trailing amm before I got canned. Must say that the customer service and prompt delivery were great-Thanks pelican.
This is my favorite site to surf!

pwd72s · 10-09-2001, 05:01 PM

Wayne, Warren Buffett has stated that we are in a recession. On the up side, he also said to NEVER bet against the USA, because that bet has been a loser since 1776! Personally, I hope I have things set up so I'm pretty recession proof, but I never did lead a lavish lifestyle. The old P car is my main vice, and I just maintain it, with no real changes planned....

cabman · 10-09-2001, 05:13 PM

my monthly bills are minimal and I still have my job

so this economic downturn hasnt really had an affect on me so I'm keeping my 911, daily driver for almost 2 years and still going (knock on wood)

[This message has been edited by cabman (edited 10-09-2001).]

rstoll · 10-09-2001, 05:19 PM

Having lived well below my means for the last twenty years has paid off. Everything is cool for now. Wouldn't hurt my feelings to see a little bounce in the market though. Will be maintaining the 911 and the 944 as usual. Yes, Christmas stocking stuffers are are on Santa's list.

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Robert Stoll
83 SC
83 944

Mark Howard · 10-09-2001, 05:20 PM

I have budgeted $5K to spend on my 993 and 914 in the next year, the attack was actually good for my business (so to speak, I have a disaster recovery and mitigation firm), so no changes in spending. With the new 993, probably alittle more if anything.

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Mark Howard
'97 993 Carrera
'88 Carrera
'62 356/B (going into the hanger)
'75 914 1.8 (resto in final stages)

Doug Zielke · 10-09-2001, 05:37 PM

Wayne,
No secret the N. American economy was heading downward even before Sept 11. Now it's anyones guess how much discretionary spending will be going on. However...

My wife just signed the papers on a '00 Boxster "S". She's an investment banker and *sees* economic trends the rest of us only get to read about much later. She's not discouraged in the long term view.

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'81 SC Coupe (aka: "Blue Bomber")
Canada West Region PCA
The Blue Bomber's Website
"If it ain't broke...we'll help you fix it 'til it is!"

old_skul · 10-09-2001, 08:41 PM

Wayne, I'm still unemployed and will stay that way until people start investing in the internet again or I learn a new trade.

My Porsche activities are scaled far, far back and I'm limited to ordering your book (because I regard you and your business as "friendly") and brake fluid (because it's a safety related item).

However, I feel the economy has pretty much bottomed. People have moved their monies out of volatile internet-related businesses and into more stable interests. I see slow to moderate growth over the next two years, but no real shrinkage.

As soon as I get a job, I'm going to stabilize and then start buying again.

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Mark Szabo
1986 911 Targa 3.2
1987 Escort 5-speed 1.9 RIP
The Porsche Owners Gallery

ghanlon · 10-09-2001, 09:25 PM

On one side, my buisness is picking up. Oilfield companies are starting to take a hard look at visual surviellance for their remote sites.On the other hand I have already had a couple of large contracts cancelled because of a halt in spending due to 9 11. I am definitaly seeing a decrease in my buisness but its too soon to say.
gary

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ghanlon

john70t · 10-09-2001, 09:26 PM

Well I would suppose it's all a gamble our whole country is dependant on. I could ***** about too many people buying on margin, fourth morgages etc... basically living well beyond their means, but if it means driving an extrodinary automobile such as ?.... besides, there's no way to change the past.

If the market doesn't go up we are all SOL anyways, more layoffs, rampent inflation etc. The $100 bucks in your pocket won't buy a loaf of bread.

On the other hand houses, cars etc are gonna be on the market. All power to the consumer.

So if you have a job that does well in bad times i.e. military, news, security.. all power to you.

Drew_K · 10-09-2001, 09:37 PM

No effect on my spending at all. I just picked up my first set of R compound tires today (Toyo RA1's) for about $600. Last month, I bought a set of 17 inch 996 rims. I have a number of suspension mods in mind, but I want to make changes one at a time so that I'll be able to notice the improvements. That means my purchases will be spread out over at least the next few months.

I'm an intellectual property lawyer, so I feel pretty comfortable with my job situation. When the economy goes down, my litigation work goes up. When the economy was booming, I still had plenty of litigation but I also did a lot of patent counseling. Not as much of that work lately since companies are scaling back on R&D.

We still plan on taking a vacation later this year. The only difference is that, due to Sept 11, we're taking a cruise from a local port rather than flying someplace.

And Wayne: I received the 101 Projects Book today. It's un-freaking believable! Well organized, well written, good pictures, and has a little bit for everyone. I have a 92 C2 and I thought the book wouldn't have much for me (*wrong*), but I bought it anyways just for leisure reading. I'm already eyeing the Weltmeister strut bar, among other projects. Great job!

[This message has been edited by Drew_K (edited 10-09-2001).]

Bill Wagner · 10-09-2001, 10:15 PM

Wayne:

Regarding your last point about employment I can tell you the following. I went by a job fair today just to try and size up the employment conditions here in Northern Virginia. A few years ago, you would go by one of these and see maybe 50-100 cars in the lot at a time, and the firms attending would have HR people trying to lure people to their booths. NOT THIS TIME! There had to be at least 2000 cars in the lot...it was utter chaos. As I drove by, I looked into the center where this was being held and there were actually lines of people waiting to meet the HR people from the attending firms.

I live in Northern Virginia, which is probably one of the worst managed areas in the US as far as economic planning goes. The County has actually paid (BIG $$$$) marketting people to attract companies to this area. Most of these have been very poorly run "dot-coms" that didn't stand a chance of surviving, even if the economic times were good. We probably have one of the WORST ratios of unemployment for "high-tech" people in the US, for what that's worth.

Hopefully things will get better, but how long it will take I have no idea. As far as my 911 purchase go, other things (luxuries) can be cut before 911 purchases stop...I really don't NEED to be drinking Spaten Beer at $8.00 a six pack...No...Strike that

! I can eat burger instead of steak

!

Good Luck,

Bill Wagner

[This message has been edited by Bill Wagner (edited 10-09-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Bill Wagner (edited 10-09-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Bill Wagner (edited 10-09-2001).]

89911 · 10-10-2001, 04:34 AM

Wayne, This winter we are planning a complete suspension rebuild of an 87 coupe with every component replaced. I'll be calling soon about a bulk order discount, if that is possible. We, (My brother and I) expect to dump at least $3000 at least in this stage. So in answer to your question, no, the economy has not swayed my Porsche purchases. Hard to imagine what would?

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8 9 9 1 1, The last of the line.