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The word "bubble" on air cooled Porsche's would indicate that the cars value sky rocketed then plummeted back to Earth(back to values before the rise). That is NOT the case. Yes, prices are lower than they were in 12-15 but are nowhere near before the rise in value and that includes 930's. Example: Before 2011 a very well maintained 930 could be had for $25-35K with less than 50k miles. We are NOT there any longer. Any 930 that sells for $25-35K today would probably need $50-70K in work. So once again there is no "bubble"...just a correction in current values.
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Old 05-12-2019, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by manbridge 74 View Post
Let it plummet, parts and some services will go down as well.
Parts and services go down? Good luck with that!
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Old 05-12-2019, 08:24 PM
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Originally Posted by speednme1 View Post
The word "bubble" on air cooled Porsche's would indicate that the cars value sky rocketed then plummeted back to Earth(back to values before the rise). That is NOT the case. Yes, prices are lower than they were in 12-15 but are nowhere near before the rise in value and that includes 930's. Example: Before 2011 a very well maintained 930 could be had for $25-35K with less than 50k miles. We are NOT there any longer. Any 930 that sells for $25-35K today would probably need $50-70K in work. So once again there is no "bubble"...just a correction in current values.
A bubble is defined as an abnormal period of appreciation followed by a contraction. But there's no rule that a bubble can only exist if prices fall to pre-bubble levels. What makes a bubble, a bubble, is irrational behavior by investors who throw fundamentals out the window and buy on the assumption that prices will continue to increase not based on the value of the asset itself. When 30 year old cars are $20K and then 5 years later they're $100K.....a better definition of a bubble doesn't exist.
Old 05-12-2019, 08:34 PM
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Who cares!! I have my four cars, I bought them to enjoy. Prices can skyrocket, I won't sell, they can crash, I won't sell. This subject is being beat to Death!!!!!!
Old 05-13-2019, 04:51 AM
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Originally Posted by robertmark View Post
Who cares!! I have my four cars, I bought them to enjoy. Prices can skyrocket, I won't sell, they can crash, I won't sell. This subject is being beat to Death!!!!!!
Wow dude. Calm down
Old 05-13-2019, 05:04 AM
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Originally Posted by robertmark View Post
Who cares!! I have my four cars, I bought them to enjoy. Prices can skyrocket, I won't sell, they can crash, I won't sell. This subject is being beat to Death!!!!!!
Itís the Marketplace forum, to talk about values. You donít like the topic? Nobody makes you read the threads.
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Old 05-13-2019, 05:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Vaive View Post
For the last 3-5 years everything's been in a bubble. Housing, stocks, bonds, classic cars. Name an asset, I'll show you a bubble. At some point it will all collapse. Question is, will it happen tomorrow, 6 months from , 12 months? Who knows. As the old saying goes, a market can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
That's because boomers have all the money. They literally control 70% of disposable income while the rest of us are ****ed.

https://www.usnews.com/pubfiles/USNews_Market_Insights_Boomers2015.pdf
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Old 05-13-2019, 05:55 AM
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I've watched '73 RS's for 40 years. Up and down and up and down. Where I dropped the ball was back in '04 when the prices were around $75K for a Touring car. FWIW, around the same time I could have also bought one of the nicest lightweights I've ever seen for around $120K.
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Old 05-13-2019, 06:11 AM
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That's because boomers have all the money. They literally control 70% of disposable income while the rest of us are ****ed.

https://www.usnews.com/pubfiles/USNews_Market_Insights_Boomers2015.pdf
Whaaa? Older people have more money than younger people? That has like never happened in the history of the world.

As a member of the forgotten generation (GenX) I find this milenial / boomer fight hilarious and entertaining. I've always thought if milenials spent just 10% of the time they waste fighting an imaginary war against boomers, figuring out a way to make money instead, they'd be as well off financially as boomers are some day.

As to the subject at hand, my guess is the price increase in 911s is coming from people in their 30s and 40s, not boomers. Boomers are into 60s/70s cars, not 80s Porsches. Kids who had the 911 on their bedroom wall in the 80s are the ones driving the prices today, ie GenXers like me. Your anger is misdirected.
Old 05-13-2019, 06:18 AM
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Air cooled prices trending down

I recently benefited from the softening SC Targa pricing - picked up my well sorted '82 in late March and feel like my patience paid off

Last edited by Schloer2; 05-15-2019 at 07:35 AM..
Old 05-13-2019, 06:34 AM
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Boomers hold the older cars.. more in time with their "youth".. youngsters own newer cars, more aligned with their use. Speculators are everywhere. We all know that good cars will hold value and continue to be valuable while those rushed out to catch the bubble/wave are falling back a bit.
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Old 05-13-2019, 06:36 AM
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I am amazed at the potential purchasers who hear about my cars, (which are NOT listed for sale),
come by to look at them, tell me that the "bubble is about to burst", and then make offers below wholesale. These "altruistic angels" want to save me from certain financial ruin. It gives me a warm fuzzy feeling that complete strangers will go out of their way to prevent my loss.
Can we all toast marshmallows and sing Kumbaya?
Old 05-13-2019, 06:48 AM
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Ronald Reagan probably said it best when asked about the dow ..." markets go up markets go down"
Fact is the P car air cooled market has currently cooled and the Japanese market has heated.. buy what you like and enjoy.
Lots of clairvoyant wannabes in every marketplace discussion be it stocks, cars, housing, etc. but very few of them have had much of a track record of accuracy.
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Old 05-13-2019, 08:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robertmark View Post
Who cares!! I have my four cars, I bought them to enjoy. Prices can skyrocket, I won't sell, they can crash, I won't sell. This subject is being beat to Death!!!!!!
This is a marketplace discussion forum. Of course this subject is going to be beaten to death. But it's still fun to talk about. I never get tired of it.
Old 05-13-2019, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Vaive View Post
Whaaa? Older people have more money than younger people? That has like never happened in the history of the world.

As a member of the forgotten generation (GenX) I find this milenial / boomer fight hilarious and entertaining. I've always thought if milenials spent just 10% of the time they waste fighting an imaginary war against boomers, figuring out a way to make money instead, they'd be as well off financially as boomers are some day.

As to the subject at hand, my guess is the price increase in 911s is coming from people in their 30s and 40s, not boomers. Boomers are into 60s/70s cars, not 80s Porsches. Kids who had the 911 on their bedroom wall in the 80s are the ones driving the prices today, ie GenXers like me. Your anger is misdirected.
1. You're not understanding. When boomers went to school, tuition was something they could pay for working part time during the summers. Today's average tuition requires like 4000 hours of min wage to pay for. The same thing has happened to housing; millions of people grew up in areas and can no longer afford a home similar to the one they grew up in, the prices increased so substantially in the past 20 years that there is no way they'll ever be home owners.

2. Wages have not moved in almost 3 decades. Cost of everything else has gone up dramatically.

3. Disagree. Go to a Porsche meetup. Most of the owners, in my experience, have white hair and are close to retirement, or retired. Most of them also just cut checks to specialist shops that do all their wrenching for them. There's a reason I've never gone back to one. Rich boomers.
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Old 05-13-2019, 09:48 AM
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Ya cost of living has gone up dramatically, while wages have stagnated. Boomers often fail to appreciate this. I've done well, but only because I happen to bright and went to elite schools. I'm not boasting. It's just the way it is, and in many ways it's unfair. The deck is stacked against regular people in ways that are wrong and ought to be remedied through policy.

It's not enough to be a regular person with a college degree. To have means nowadays, you have to be elite or run your own business. The days of the regular guy office worker with enough income for a moderately expensive hobby are long gone.

On the other hand, there are lots of extremely wealthy people out there now who think nothing of spending 100K or so on this or that fun thing. It's these guys that are buying up all the cars, and they don't necessarily have enough time or even the inclination to scrutinize them too closely. So what we see looks like a bubble. At least for 964s, I don't think it is. It's just that rich people have inclined themselves to this little segment of the automotive world. Their attention may go elsewhere eventually, but that won't be a bubble bursting-- it will just be fashions shifting. The decline in prices won't be dramatic, but prices will eventually stabilize.
Old 05-13-2019, 11:13 AM
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That's because boomers have all the money. They literally control 70% of disposable income while the rest of us are ****ed.

https://www.usnews.com/pubfiles/USNews_Market_Insights_Boomers2015.pdf
Nice! I'm a boomer!
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Old 05-13-2019, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by ADDvanced View Post
1. You're not understanding. When boomers went to school, tuition was something they could pay for working part time during the summers. Today's average tuition requires like 4000 hours of min wage to pay for. The same thing has happened to housing; millions of people grew up in areas and can no longer afford a home similar to the one they grew up in, the prices increased so substantially in the past 20 years that there is no way they'll ever be home owners.

2. Wages have not moved in almost 3 decades. Cost of everything else has gone up dramatically.

3. Disagree. Go to a Porsche meetup. Most of the owners, in my experience, have white hair and are close to retirement, or retired. Most of them also just cut checks to specialist shops that do all their wrenching for them. There's a reason I've never gone back to one. Rich boomers.
Um, no. This is just not true. You speak from zero experience on the first subject.

Tuition was out of reach for almost everybody back then. Almost all of us worked all during the school year AND summers to pay our way through college. Many of my friends never did "make it", despite high priced educations and privileged upbringings? Why?

Same reason your friends haven't. They were either lazy, made bad choices, had bad luck or didn't choose to pursue a high life style. It's not the economy, it's the people in the economy.

And the Porsche clubs are nothing but white haired old guys? Maybe where you live, but the last autocross I went to, I was the oldest guy there by 20 years.

Porsche Parades are different. They require several days off. Most working guys can't afford the time off to go to those, so the majority of participants are old guys like myself.
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Old 05-13-2019, 11:53 AM
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Originally Posted by BLACK3.2 View Post
Ya cost of living has gone up dramatically, while wages have stagnated. Boomers often fail to appreciate this. I've done well, but only because I happen to bright and went to elite schools. I'm not boasting. It's just the way it is, and in many ways it's unfair. The deck is stacked against regular people in ways that are wrong and ought to be remedied through policy.

It's not enough to be a regular person with a college degree. To have means nowadays, you have to be elite or run your own business. The days of the regular guy office worker with enough income for a moderately expensive hobby are long gone.

On the other hand, there are lots of extremely wealthy people out there now who think nothing of spending 100K or so on this or that fun thing. It's these guys that are buying up all the cars, and they don't necessarily have enough time or even the inclination to scrutinize them too closely. So what we see looks like a bubble. At least for 964s, I don't think it is. It's just that rich people have inclined themselves to this little segment of the automotive world. Their attention may go elsewhere eventually, but that won't be a bubble bursting-- it will just be fashions shifting. The decline in prices won't be dramatic, but prices will eventually stabilize.
I'm always kind of torn on this subject. I get that wages have stagnated and can sympathize as I am on the young(ish) side of the millennial gen. All the arguments are there and I see them to be true, yet all of my friends are doing quite well, advancing their careers, making good money and have little to complain about. I guess maybe if we had the same adjusted prices previous gens had I'd be sending this response from a vacation home, instead of my office. But I can't control that.
Old 05-13-2019, 11:57 AM
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I'm always kind of torn on this subject. I get that wages have stagnated and can sympathize as I am on the young(ish) side of the millennial gen. All the arguments are there and I see them to be true, yet all of my friends are doing quite well, advancing their careers, making good money and have little to complain about. I guess maybe if we had the same adjusted prices previous gens had I'd be sending this response from a vacation home, instead of my office. But I can't control that.
You have a biased sample if you just go by your friends. All my friends are doing well, too. In fact, they may be doing even better than they would have in previous generations. Highly educated, numerate people are in demand. My direct sample of "average" people is cousins and other more distant family that went to mid to lower tier universities and or didn't go to college at all. Those people are struggling.
Old 05-13-2019, 12:10 PM
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