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-   -   Crystal ball time... (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/porsche-marketplace-discussion/1040737-crystal-ball-time.html)

Alan A 09-22-2019 10:50 AM

Crystal ball time...
 
No not another whatís it worth in x thread.
Nor even a will anyone want an air cooled in 20 years one.

Instead I was thinking about the good old manual transmission - brought on by the relative prices and desirability of a new GT3.

Donít get me wrong - I like driving a stick. I would struggle to buy a newer car with a PDK as a weekend toy. But Iím starting to think that they are an anachronism - like starter handles.

I wouldnít DD a stick - my commute has too much (heavy) traffic, and Iím broadly in favor of them. I wonder if thereís even going to be a real market in 20 years time for a touring with a 6-speed.

I know. Electric. But this was intended to be just about the transmission. Anyone else feel that way or am I overthinking this?

Ralph3. 09-22-2019 11:24 AM

Don't worry about future returns on a car, buy what you want and enjoy it now. If you are worried about returns in 20 years invest you money elsewhere. Maybe find a late model used GT3?

Alan A 09-22-2019 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ralph3. (Post 10600443)
Don't worry about future returns on a car, buy what you want and enjoy it now. If you are worried about returns in 20 years invest you money elsewhere. Maybe find a late model used GT3?

Iím not really worried :)

I was curious what other people thought - whether there will even be a market for a stick shift is all.

I may not even be around in 20 years, so that sure wonít stop me buying what I want today.

wgwollet 09-22-2019 11:47 AM

Stick
 
Always a market for a stick air cooled, who knows what is worth in 20 years
But starting with the 2010 997.2 itís a PDK, as a better approach

But it really matters not, the trick is to try to reduce your loses, not a investment but try to get a model with holding resell, the manual after 2010 becomes rare and I enjoy it the best...so low volumes, love of a manual might hold value better

My 2 :

Matt Monson 09-22-2019 01:47 PM

My father drove nothing but manuals until his first minivan right as I left for college. My younger brothers were still in diapers. My dad never owned a manual again. The kids are 30 now and neither of them knows how to drive stick. At least in America I think this is where we are going. The manual is dead at the new car level, but it will be part ofvintage car ownership for another 20 years. I’ve bet my livelihood on it.

Alan A 09-22-2019 01:53 PM

You are all focusing on what the value is or will be. I was wondering if anyone would want one at all.

Matt Monson 09-22-2019 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan A (Post 10600559)
You are all focusing on what the value is or will be. I was wondering if anyone would want one at all.

No Iím not. I donít buy and sell these cars. I manufacture transmission parts for these cars. I sell more 915 gears than anything else. In 3-5 years I expect GT3 gears to take over that slot. Iím 48. I expect this stuff to pay my bills for at least another 12-15 years.

pmax 09-22-2019 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan A (Post 10600417)
I know. Electric. But this was intended to be just about the transmission. Anyone else feel that way or am I overthinking this?

There's no transmission on those. So there.

The stick will survive on the best of the IC cars , which these air cooled classics are the top contender for.

NYNick 09-22-2019 03:06 PM

To be honest, whether people want them or not in 10-15 years directly relates to value.

However, like anything else old, desirability will decline IMO, along with the cars.

Where's Sugar-chickenlittle-wood when you need him?

McLovin 09-22-2019 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan A (Post 10600417)
I wonder if thereís even going to be a real market in 20 years time for a touring with a 6-speed.

I know. Electric. But this was intended to be just about the transmission. Anyone else feel that way or am I overthinking this?

You made the question too easy.

20 years?

No, there won't be any real market for 6 speed touring cars.

McLovin 09-22-2019 09:05 PM

And that's my opinion as someone who has never owned an automatic.

McLovin 09-22-2019 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan A (Post 10600559)
You are all focusing on what the value is or will be. I was wondering if anyone would want one at all.

Someone still will.
Just not as many people as today.

Vaive 09-23-2019 08:38 AM

When I bought a new (old) car with a stick my kids (aged 6 and 8 at the time) were confused when they got in and saw that weird thing sticking up in between the 2 seats. I explained to them it was a manual transmission and the difference between how that works and how and automatic works. And they both looked at me like I was crazy for getting a car that has all that extra work involved vs just pressing the gas pedal.

thamlin000 09-23-2019 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vaive (Post 10601283)
When I bought a new (old) car with a stick my kids (aged 6 and 8 at the time) were confused when they got in and saw that weird thing sticking up in between the 2 seats. I explained to them it was a manual transmission and the difference between how that works and how and automatic works. And they both looked at me like I was crazy for getting a car that has all that extra work involved vs just pressing the gas pedal.

About 5 years ago, my niece who was about 10 or 11 years old at the time, came up from Texas to visit us. While up here, my wife took my niece for a ride in her 66 Mustang. When they hopped into the car, my wife told her to roll down the passenger side window. She asked where the button was. My wife laughed and pointed at the window crank. My niece grabbed and pulled on it. Then it finally clicked with my wife that my niece had never been in a car with a crank window so she didn’t know how to use one.

Like crank windows, manual transmissions will be an interesting relic in 20 years. Probably not desirable though. Sad for me, since I just can’t see myself owning an automatic, even my daily driver is manual.

NYNick 09-23-2019 09:36 AM

Remember Scotty in a Star Trek movie picking up a computer mouse on a cord and speaking into it like a microphone because he had never seen one? Classic.

Time and technology moves on. Everyone wants fast and easy. The manual transmission is a ridiculous anachronism that never would have seen the light of day if they could've figured out how to build an automatic.

While I love mine, they're dinosaurs.

Solamar 09-23-2019 04:11 PM

I have two teenage sons, 15 and 17.

The 17 year old would only consider a manual trans for his first car, wound up with a first gen Mini Cooper S. The 15 YO practices driving a manual with his car games (steering wheel, shifter, clutch etc) and is saving for a manual NA Miata for his first car. I don't think I had much, if any, influence on those choices (for as long as they have been alive I've driven automatic trucks for my daily).

Doesnt mean much though as manufacturers are ceasing production of most manual trans cars.

Driven97 09-25-2019 06:32 AM

Manuals are on their way out. The day autos surpassed them on fuel economy was the day they died.

I think a better question is if sports cars will still exist on a new level in 20 years.

Tesla are kinda hacks when it comes to building cars. However the Model 3 Performance, which is the sporty version of their cheapest sedan, has performance beyond most sports cars today, and on par with supercars from only a few years ago. Why would you need a sports car when you can get all the performance with none of the drawbacks?

We're all going to be driving around in electric 7 passenger crossovers that can blow a Carrera GT out of the water for a decade or two until the driver gets removed completely.

By then owning a car that you can actually drive yourself will be comparable to owning a horse today.

Vaive 09-25-2019 07:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Driven97 (Post 10603603)

By then owning a car that you can actually drive yourself will be comparable to owning a horse today.

About 2 million Americans own a horse today. So yeah I can see about 2 million Americans owning a self driving car circa 2050.

As for why do you want to drive a sports car when a cross over has the same power? Same reason some people want to wear $500 pairs of jeans when functionally they are no different than $40 jeans from Walmart.

Driven97 09-25-2019 11:26 AM

2 million out of 327 million is 0.6%, seems right. Owning a horse or a car without a computer to drive it could be something where only the wealthy or very dedicated hobbyist can afford to store/maintain and take to special places where they are allowed to drive/ride them. I don't think it's out of the question that person-driven cars could get outlawed on public roads in my son's lifetime. Some of the recent advances in AI learning and quantum computing suggest we are not on a linear path.

Short term I think we'll see SUVs continue to dominate, but they'll get more niche offerings, with style and performance becoming more common vs the majority bland boxes we have now.

Electric and hybrid vehicles will grow exponentially, and one major energy storage or charging tech breakthrough could possibly even end the internal combustion powered car completely.

Adoption to a new technology can happen very, very quickly. 8 years ago everyone wanted the tiniest flip phone possible or a Blackberry, then the iPhone came out and nearly every phone that's come out in the last 5 years is a clone of that concept.

Enthusiasts (us) are a pretty small subset, but as long as we're here, manufacturers will continue making products that we'll give them money for. So keep buying those manual transmission cars new (used doesn't count.)

1979-930 09-25-2019 11:39 AM

I'm currently teaching my 15 year old to drive a stick. I'm really surprised at how difficult it is for him.
My assumption is he doesn't have the concept down because he didn't grow up watching me drive a stick 100% of the time.
My dad's trucks were always a manual. So all I saw was him working the clutch and gears. I was sneaking his truck out and driving a manual at 13. My son hasn't had that visual experience to learn from.
And he's a good kid that doesn't pull any of the crap I did.


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