Pelican Parts
Parts Catalog Accessories Catalog How To Articles Tech Forums
Call Pelican Parts at 888-280-7799
Shopping Cart Cart | Project List | Order Status | Help



Go Back   Pelican Parts Forums > Porsche Classified Ads > Porsche Marketplace Discussion


Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 1 votes, 1.00 average.
Author
Thread Post New Thread    Reply
Registered User
 
techweenie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: West L.A.
Posts: 20,009
Garage
Quote:
Originally Posted by ficke View Post
China does not hold that much US debt. as a matter of fact all foreign countries together only hold 29.3% percent of US debt.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-who-owns-a-record-2121-trillion-of-us-debt-2018-08-21

So that is very unlikely China will loan the money needed as they have not in the past.
That is why I am thinking "Quantitative easing" Printing and then the inflation that follows.
Thank you for that.

__________________
techweenie | techweenie.com
Marketing Consultant (expensive!)
2004 996 Turbo Cab, triple black | all out of longhoods again
2018 Chevy Volt dd/parts fetcher
Old 03-26-2020, 06:43 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #181 (permalink)
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Tucson, Az.
Posts: 2,322
Garage
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShopCat View Post
Inflation incoming, I will be holding as little cash as possible, 3-6 months emergency fund only. It would nice if the government could get anything preventative done in the 10 years between these meltdowns, like at least attempt to balance the budget for instance. We preach emergency fund to the masses and the people in charge can't figure it out. Oh well, fire up the printers and pretend it could never happen again.
Chances are even less now for a balanced budget with the economy not paying tax revenue to the government and the government spending even more to help people.
Old 03-26-2020, 06:44 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #182 (permalink)
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Tucson, Az.
Posts: 2,322
Garage
Quote:
Originally Posted by techweenie View Post
Thank you for that.
You are welcome
Old 03-26-2020, 06:45 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #183 (permalink)
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 332
Garage
Quote:
Originally Posted by techweenie View Post
The US was already running a $1 trillion deficit, and another $2 trillion is just more borrowed money.

And who do we borrow it from? China, of course.

Meantime, a $1200 check (actually tax credit) in May isn't gonna do a whole lot of good for individuals out of work or who have had to shut down or cut back their businesses.
Not really.

First off, this "we borrow from China" myth needs to go away. About 17% of the US debt is owned by foreigners. That's all foreigners, Chinese, Euros, Canadians, Japanese, etc. China owns around 5%. Japan owns about 5% as well. Who owns the rest? We do. Do you have any bond funds in your 401k? Well then you own part of the debt. And so do millions of others. As do pension funds, insurance companies, and so on.

2nd, the $1200 number is the easy one to throw around but it's more nuanced.
A family of 4 making under $150K is getting $3400.
Plus unemployment benefits have been upped by $600/week on top of their existing benefit for 4 months. Typical UE benefits are $500 a week so this means $4-5K/mo for the next 4 months in UE money coming to the unemployed. Which with a little savings, should allow most people to weather the storm. Add in things like banks offering mortgage forbearance. moving tax deadline to July and things should be OK for the majority of people.

There's going to be some pain no doubt. But I no longer think it's as bad as I originally thought. Markets are up 20% from the lows already, as investors are realizing they overshot on the way down.
Old 03-26-2020, 06:48 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #184 (permalink)
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Tucson, Az.
Posts: 2,322
Garage
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Monson View Post
It's almost like the nation couldn't afford Trump's $2 Trillion tax cut, the same law that got my business tossed of our group health plan and increased my health insurance costs by thousands a year.

Tax's are not a liner thing, kind of like rent. If you raise rent and lose occupancy you can lose revenue, if you lower rent and gain occupancy you can increase revenue. The question is balance, charge as much tax/rent as the market will bear with out slowing it so much that you lose revenue. of course there are many other things that effect the economy, like this virus.

Last edited by ficke; 03-26-2020 at 07:24 AM..
Old 03-26-2020, 07:18 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #185 (permalink)
gearhead
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Loverland, CO
Posts: 17,721
Quote:
Originally Posted by ficke View Post
Tax's are not a liner thing, kind of like rent. If you raise rent and lose occupancy you can lose revenue, if you lower rent and gain occupancy you can increase revenue. The question is balance, charge as much tax/rent as the market will bear with out slowing it so much that you lose revenue. of course there are many other things that effect the economy, like this virus.
I think you mean linear? Iíll also remind you that contrary to MIBís assertion that Iím a mechanic, I have a degree in Economics from UC Berkeley. Trust me, I understand it better than 90% of the people in this conversation.
__________________
1974 911 Restorod
1974 914 Bumble Bee
2004 40 Jahre
2008 Cayman S Mule
Old 03-26-2020, 07:35 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #186 (permalink)
 
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Tucson, Az.
Posts: 2,322
Garage
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Monson View Post
I think you mean linear? Iíll also remind you that contrary to MIBís assertion that Iím a mechanic, I have a degree in Economics from UC Berkeley. Trust me, I understand it better than 90% of the people in this conversation.
spelling, I am trying!!
Old 03-26-2020, 07:49 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #187 (permalink)
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Tucson, Az.
Posts: 2,322
Garage
Chime in Matt.
Where is the money going to come from? how much can we spend before it has a negative effect on fighting this virus and future ones? Are you worried about demand of your product and starting up again? Is racing out for the rest of the year?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Old 03-26-2020, 07:55 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #188 (permalink)
Turbo Powered Snow Blower
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Rocklin, CA .... Galveston, TX
Posts: 3,616
Garage
Quote:
Originally Posted by ficke View Post
That is why I am thinking "Quantitative easing" Printing and then the inflation that follows.
I was explaining this to an employee when the bailout was first talked about.
He was happy about it. My response was Meh. It will carry us through and cause inflation again.
He didn't follow and my explanation was this.
Remember in 08 when a sandwich at the Deli was $5 to $8 dollars. And now you gripe that Beach Hut Deli is $14.00. Well in two or three years you will be griping about your sandwich being $20.00.
A lot of people still don't get basic economics.

The one area that this "Pandemic" should shed a light on is how most Americans live. They aren't even paycheck to paycheck anymore. Some that appear successful are day by day. It's irresponsible that people can't live one month without a paycheck. We have friends that own a dental practice. Travel like they are a Kardashian. And are freaking out about being closed for three weeks.
__________________
Derrick
Old 03-26-2020, 08:52 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #189 (permalink)
gearhead
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Loverland, CO
Posts: 17,721
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1979-930 View Post
The one area that this "Pandemic" should shed a light on is how most Americans live. They aren't even paycheck to paycheck anymore. Some that appear successful are day by day. It's irresponsible that people can't live one month without a paycheck. We have friends that own a dental practice. Travel like they are a Kardashian. And are freaking out about being closed for three weeks.
Ding. Ding. Ding. Someone with an AGI of $150k shouldnít need bailout money from this unless they have way too much debt and are living beyond their means. These are the people who will be dumping boats, TVs, and old 911s.
__________________
1974 911 Restorod
1974 914 Bumble Bee
2004 40 Jahre
2008 Cayman S Mule
Old 03-26-2020, 09:01 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #190 (permalink)
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 332
Garage
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Monson View Post
I think you mean linear? Iíll also remind you that contrary to MIBís assertion that Iím a mechanic, I have a degree in Economics from UC Berkeley. Trust me, I understand it better than 90% of the people in this conversation.

Oooooh an econ degree? Snort!

Well I have a finance degree. You know what those are right? It's like economics, but with math and real world scenarios. Compare that to economics, in which every sentence starts with "imagine a perfect world...."

Oh and I have an MBA too, so I may know a thing or two how taxes affect businesses...once again IN THE REAL WORLD not in a text book.

All that aside, in your 2-3 hours of news did you happen to catch this?
One of the virus' biggest doomsayers, Neil Ferguson, is walking back his projections. By how much you ask? Oh just a 95% reduction. But it's cool man, you keep setting your hair on fire if it makes you feel better. After all you have a degree from Berkeley!!!!!
Old 03-26-2020, 09:07 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #191 (permalink)
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 332
Garage
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Monson View Post
Ding. Ding. Ding. Someone with an AGI of $150k shouldnít need bailout money from this unless they have way too much debt and are living beyond their means. These are the people who will be dumping boats, TVs, and old 911s.
Imagine thinking $150K for a family of 4 goes a long way in places like SF, Seattle or NYC. Dude!
Old 03-26-2020, 09:13 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #192 (permalink)
 
gearhead
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Loverland, CO
Posts: 17,721
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaive View Post
Oooooh an econ degree? Snort!

Well I have a finance degree. You know what those are right? It's like economics, but with math and real world scenarios. Compare that to economics, in which every sentence starts with "imagine a perfect world...."

Oh and I have an MBA too, so I may know a thing or two how taxes affect businesses...once again IN THE REAL WORLD not in a text book.

All that aside, in your 2-3 hours of news did you happen to catch this?
One of the virus' biggest doomsayers, Neil Ferguson, is walking back his projections. By how much you ask? Oh just a 95% reduction. But it's cool man, you keep setting your hair on fire if it makes you feel better. After all you have a degree from Berkeley!!!!!
There's my little buddy, always looking for a fight and looking to put people down. Piss off...
__________________
1974 911 Restorod
1974 914 Bumble Bee
2004 40 Jahre
2008 Cayman S Mule
Old 03-26-2020, 09:16 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #193 (permalink)
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Ashiya, Japan
Posts: 967
Garage
We often talk about this here in Japan among us expats. .It's the worst debt to GDP in the world with little hope of climbing out. Over 200%. It will certainly end in tears. The USA isn't far behind on the ratio, but double the quantities. The difference? Japans debt is wholly domestically owned, by the country. That means the people here will be screwed when collection time comes.

US debt is NOT domestically owned, and I might question some of the numbers that have been posted up here. I think the US debt is largely financed by foreign countries primarily China and Japan not to mention others. Who owns all the treasury bonds and what happens when they stop buying them? So when it comes time to pay out, the country gets screwed including the people.

Now I don't have a degree in economics from Berkely like Matt, so take this with a grain of salt. Whatever country can keep printing paper money, lower the value of debt, but it will end in tears eventually for those who can never climb out.
__________________
911heaven
Old 03-26-2020, 09:21 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #194 (permalink)
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 332
Garage
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Monson View Post
There's my little buddy, always looking for a fight and looking to put people down. Piss off...
I'll call out ridiculous nonsense every time I see it. Sorry if that offends you and your precious econ degree.
Old 03-26-2020, 09:39 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #195 (permalink)
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 332
Garage
Quote:
Originally Posted by 911heaven View Post

US debt is NOT domestically owned.
Yes it is.
This is how much debt is owned by foreigners out of a total of $22T. China isn't even 5%. Everything not on this chart is domestically owned. The split is always changing since we're continually issuing new debt that is purchased by different groups, as well as existing debt traded between entities. But it is consistently in the 80/20 range, give or take.


Old 03-26-2020, 09:47 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #196 (permalink)
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Tulsa, OK
Posts: 260
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1979-930 View Post
The one area that this "Pandemic" should shed a light on is how most Americans live. They aren't even paycheck to paycheck anymore. Some that appear successful are day by day. It's irresponsible that people can't live one month without a paycheck. We have friends that own a dental practice. Travel like they are a Kardashian. And are freaking out about being closed for three weeks.
Don't worry, I'm sure all the $75k range rovers returned on lease this month will be back on the road shortly as soon as people decide its safe enough to continue not saving anything for the future.
Old 03-26-2020, 09:51 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #197 (permalink)
Troll Hunter
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Hudson Valley
Posts: 3,417
Garage
I have degrees as well. BS in Finance and an MBA. Those don't mean crap in any conversation. My best experience came from running small businesses and employing people for decades. Wanna see what the real world is like? Employ hourly workers, dozens of them, year after year.

You learn how these people live, how they think and what's important to them. You learn what they value, what they want and what they're willing to do to achieve the American dream. You see most of them never being able to afford that dream and that they basically live paycheck to paycheck, while leasing new cars.

Hell, even the guys at the country clubs are living over the heads. Come to think of it, so are a lot of those financial or real estate pukes in NYC. It's the great American way these days. Live beyond your means but look good while you're doing it. Fake it until you make it, even if you never make it.

The Federal Government has been faking it for decades. Our economic saving grace has been our industrial and technological explosion and jobs. We are the envy of the world economically, even if it is a house of cards. Look at the dollar.

They had to do something.
__________________
1978 SC Coupe, Gris Argent Metallic Silver
1974 2002 Tii Polaris Silver
1972 911T matching #'s 2.7 RS Spec
Old 03-26-2020, 09:51 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #198 (permalink)
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Tulsa, OK
Posts: 260
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Monson View Post
There's my little buddy, always looking for a fight and looking to put people down. Piss off...
There will always be the people yelling about how ridiculous all this shutdown and social distancing was. "See! There was no pandemic!" LOL
Old 03-26-2020, 09:57 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #199 (permalink)
Registered User
 
techweenie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: West L.A.
Posts: 20,009
Garage
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaive View Post
Imagine thinking $150K for a family of 4 goes a long way in places like SF, Seattle or NYC. Dude!
An AGI of $150K is what, a gross income of $230K? Yeah, that's adequate for a lot of folks - especially outside the hot metro areas.

__________________
techweenie | techweenie.com
Marketing Consultant (expensive!)
2004 996 Turbo Cab, triple black | all out of longhoods again
2018 Chevy Volt dd/parts fetcher
Old 03-26-2020, 10:02 AM
  Pelican Parts Catalog | Tech Articles | Promos & Specials    Reply With Quote #200 (permalink)
Reply

Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

 


All times are GMT -8. The time now is 04:39 AM.


 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0
Copyright 2020 Pelican Parts, LLC - Posts may be archived for display on the Pelican Parts Website -    DMCA Registered Agent Contact Page
 

DTO Garage Plus vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.