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Stock Market / Economy Slow Down effect on Prices

What might become a bargain and what are you happy not owning or needing to sell?


Last edited by msark; 03-19-2020 at 04:26 PM.. Reason: grammer
Old 03-19-2020, 04:25 PM
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This is another cycle albeit a tough one with more problems because we have no experience for this situation.If you sell right now you will not do well IMHO.Ciao Fred
Old 03-20-2020, 03:50 AM
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I am driver, not collector...so happy to own them all. Historically stock market down turns and recessions have dampened the collector car market. Likely going to be some distressed selling as this situation drags on. I would enjoy owning a G Body 3.2 air-cooled again when that happens.
Old 03-20-2020, 06:33 AM
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In my opinion the first to sell will be antique cars that people have purchased on credit. The second wave will probably be cars from people that have paid for them in cash and now are in need of said cash. I'm sure the market will be flush with cars in the coming months, no doubt about that. I am lucky I own mine but one is mid-resto and giving me some second thoughts. I wish it was at a point where I could throw a cover over it and forget about it until this mess clears but its 5 hrs away and some parts are bare metal. Oh well is what it is.
Old 03-20-2020, 07:25 AM
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Actually quite the opposite has happened...
Old 03-20-2020, 07:26 AM
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In economic downturns people tend to put there money in tangible assets like collectors cars, art, gold etc..go back to 2008, this is exactly what happened and also when air cooled Porsche started to gain traction in terms of values increasing..
Old 03-20-2020, 07:29 AM
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I will politely argue that point and say I have never heard anyone or read any publication say that the collector car market boomed during the 2008 recession. What data has pointed to that? I'm also referring to attainable cars like a mid year or something, not RSKs or speedsters etc.
Old 03-20-2020, 07:39 AM
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There will be no effect. These cars are visceral and will never go down in value.
Old 03-20-2020, 07:47 AM
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This is what happened during the last deep recession to collectible Porsche prices. FWIW I don't expect a repeat this time around.

https://www.hagerty.com/apps/valuationtools/market-trends/collector-indexes/German_Collectibles
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Old 03-20-2020, 08:09 AM
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Everything was in a bubble. Stocks, real estate, classic cars, you name. The everything bubble has popped. It is highly unlikely, and damn near impossible that while everything else is down 30-40%, air cooled Porsches stay the same price. That's on a macro level.

On a micro level, what's the first thing to go when someone is strapped for cash? Toys. In addition to classic cars, there's going to be a fire sale on boats, RVs, ATVs, etc as well. Maybe not right away, but by summer you won't be able to give away some of these things.
Old 03-20-2020, 08:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by msark View Post
What might become a bargain and what are you happy not owning or needing to sell?
You must be new here.
Here at Pelican, Aircooled cars can only go up.
Visceral stereo behind your head & aint making 'em anymore.

Summer? Prices go up. (more demand)
Winter? Prices go up. (less supply)
Stock crash? Prices go up (tangible safe haven)
Pandemic? Prices go up (hoarder effect)
Stock mania? Prices go up (wealth effect)
Demographic ages out? Prices go up (prices only go up)

Buy now, or forever be priced out!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 03-20-2020, 09:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sugarwood View Post
You must be new here.
Here at Pelican, Aircooled cars can only go up.
Visceral stereo behind your head & aint making 'em anymore.

Summer? Prices go up. (more demand)
Winter? Prices go up. (less supply)
Stock crash? Prices go up (tangible safe haven)
Pandemic? Prices go up (hoarder effect)
Stock mania? Prices go up (wealth effect)
Demographic ages out? Prices go up (prices only go up)

Buy now, or forever be priced out!!!!!!!!!!

he has been on the board for a full 7 years before you shug.
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Old 03-20-2020, 10:22 AM
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That's it.... you guys are 100% right, there is no price too high, only purchases that are too early.

I tried to take out the offer on 4 different air cooled 911's today and I can't get anyone to sell me a car. These things are so visceral and so under valued. I sold out everything I had of value and I am looking to go 100% collector cars and mostly air cooled.

In apocalyptic times there is nothing like owning an air cooled Porsche and to some extent other collector cars. Its only a matter of time before they're worth their weight in gold.
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sugarwood View Post
You must be new here.
Here at Pelican, Aircooled cars can only go up.
Visceral stereo behind your head & aint making 'em anymore.

Summer? Prices go up. (more demand)
Winter? Prices go up. (less supply)
Stock crash? Prices go up (tangible safe haven)
Pandemic? Prices go up (hoarder effect)
Stock mania? Prices go up (wealth effect)
Demographic ages out? Prices go up (prices only go up)

Buy now, or forever be priced out!!!!!!!!!!
Sugha .... what are your thoughts on a 2018 GT3 touring; declining value?
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:43 AM
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Sugha .... what are your thoughts on a 2018 GT3 touring; declining value?
Going lower If you asked me, and I realize you didnt. Even if the economy was back to where it was these cars are going to bleed out for a while. Look at the 911R or the 2016 GT3RS.... both of those sold at big time premium prices for a good bit of time before they started melting away.
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:45 AM
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Thanks Howard.


I was chasing one a week or two ago that sold for list w/ 5000 miles on it.

I just don't see the market supporting those values now.
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:48 AM
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If you listen to anything Sweetoof says, you MUST be new here.
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Old 03-20-2020, 12:14 PM
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Agree the market will not crater but expecting a drop. Not everyone who bought into the trend the last 5 + years has the financial means to weather the storm Toy vs. small biz / family / retirement / monthly nut. Leverage will create opportunities.
Old 03-20-2020, 01:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trader220 View Post
That's it.... you guys are 100% right, there is no price too high, only purchases that are too early.

I tried to take out the offer on 4 different air cooled 911's today and I can't get anyone to sell me a car. These things are so visceral and so under valued. I sold out everything I had of value and I am looking to go 100% collector cars and mostly air cooled.

In apocalyptic times there is nothing like owning an air cooled Porsche and to some extent other collector cars. Its only a matter of time before they're worth their weight in gold.
Now there is a man who understands markets! 911 prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau !! People are hoarding air kewled cars to store their toilet paper. Zombies will never think to look in the frunk! If you dare say 911 prices can drop, you will be run off this forum by a pitchfork mob! Repeat after me, "Buy now, or forever be priced out!" Buying them on margin is free money! Don't be a sucker with a dayjob, just flip 911s except never sell. Soon paint flakes from a 911 rock chip will be a donor VIN tub to start a new resto! Forget GLD, they will be worth their weight in Bitcoin!
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Old 03-20-2020, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Macroni View Post
Sugha .... what are your thoughts on a 2018 GT3 touring; declining value?
Air cooled goes to infinity.

Water cooled goes to $996

Model T, 55' Chevy, and '68 Chevelle will magically stay flat
despite every single person who wants those cars is either dead or in a nursing home.

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Old 03-20-2020, 02:40 PM
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