The hobby is officially dead....

[speednme1]

Originally Posted by pmax

No, no, no, not the orange man.

Worry about these freakshows !



What's a 356 ?

My TDI Touareg...best daily I’ve purchased so far:-)

[rw229]

If you have been in this hobby for a long time, it has been dead for a while. Flippers, arbitrage and scammers are the norm.

Money is not the only thing. I have interacted with more *holes in this hobby the last 5 years than the previous 20.

Originally Posted by trader220

I have a 2005 Audi Allroad that I picked up for basically nothing 6 months ago. Since then I have put in steel suspension, redone the calipers, pads, and rotors plus flushed the brakes. Replaced the HVAC head unit cleaned the drains. Flushed the coolant. Replaced the motor mounts. Did the timing belt and water pump. I bought the suspension used and the other parts and my time are what I have in the car.

I park it on the street in front of the house. Got a note on it asking if I would sell it. WTF I call the guy, he says he's working in the neighborhood and asked to stop by tomorrow. So I said sure. I told him I'd take $3500 bucks for it. He gets here.... oh this is perfect, my wife will love it, just what she's been looking for. I said great I'm a dealer we can do this easily. Oh, I can give you $1000 cash for it... come on its cash right now. I said at $3500 it has to be cash too. Okay what about that 911 over there, what year how many miles.... 70k its an 88.... I'll give you $35k for it. Its red and its not worth anything more than that. No one is getting big money dont let them fool you. Wait what happened to you were just looking for a car for your wife?

Its rare that I even find a legit retail buyer anymore. Last month I sold a 2014 Mini Clubman. I put it on Craig's List and 9 out of 10 people were flippers low balling and telling me why I should sell them the car. They're not even legit dealers just title jumping flippers.

On facebook I am a member of some of the air cooled groups. I don't post much but I read the posts. Anytime someone posts a pic of their car just for vanity ...."oh my god that's exactly what I am looking for.... Can I buy it?" Mean while a 30 second search on FB shows they say that to every single air cooled pic posted. Last fall I was helping a local friend swap the muffler and cat on his 86 targa. Guy comes running up, oh what a cool car can I take a couple of pictures. Do you want to sell it blah blah blah. No he's not a seller, okay can I take a few pictures. Two days later those photos are up in Facebook market place with a price listed by some scammer not even the guy who took the photos.

[sugarwood]

Originally Posted by rw229

I have interacted with more *holes in this hobby the last 5 years than the previous 20.

Flippers are just businessmen.

The real *holes are car guys who are arrogant know-it-all types.
They are constantly insulting people with the "wrong" car.

• Corvettes suck, Mustangs suck, Camaros suck.
• 70s cars suck. 80s cars suck. 90s cars suck. All modern cars suck.
• Porsche AG sucks. BMW AG sucks.
• Automatic cars all suck. PDK sucks. SMG sucks.
• EV sucks. Elon sucks.
• Magnus sucks
• Driving fast sucks. Driving slow sucks.
• Turbo sucks. 4-cyl sucks. V8 sucks.
• Front engine sucks. Mid engine sucks. Rear engine sucks.
• FWD sucks. RWD sucks. AWD sucks. 4WD sucks.
• Honda sucks. Nissan sucks. Subaru sucks. Ford sucks. GM sucks. Benz sucks. BMW sucks. Hyundai sucks.
• Stealerships suck. Your indy sucks.
• Hot hatch sucks. Land barge sucks. Lotus sucks for DD.
• DIY sucks. People who don't DIY suck.
• Yellow cars suck. Brown cars suck. 70s colors suck.
• Modern car colors suck. All 4 of them.
• Miatas are for hairdressers, Boxsters are for secretaries,
• BMW sucks. Old BMW suck. New BMW suck.
• GTI sucks. Focus RS sucks. Golf R sucks. BRZ sucks. New Supra sucks.
• Japanese cars all suck. WRX STI sucks. Ricers suck.
• Camber Tuner Modders Stance bros all suck
• Snowflakes suck. Millennials all suck. Anyone younger than me sucks.
• Everything sucks, except me and my car!

None of my other interests are filled with bitter, judgmental and critical people with massive chips on their shoulders.

[touringmandan]

If you keep your eyes and ears open, the A-holes ALWAYS give you a clear warning. If you choose to ignore the warning and engage the A-hole, be ready for all the A-hole BS that always comes with. You should know in the first 2 minutes of a conversation if it's time to cut and run.
There are still plenty of good and honest people in the hobby and business. Do your "due diligence" and vet out who you are dealing with.
A $100 deal? You can roll the dice. A $10,000 deal? I am doing my homework. Just my 2 cents.

[Macroni]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

Flippers are just businessmen.

The real *holes are car guys who are arrogant know-it-all types.
They are constantly insulting people with the "wrong" car.

• Corvettes suck, Mustangs suck, Camaros suck.
• 70s cars suck. 80s cars suck. 90s cars suck. All modern cars suck.
• Porsche AG sucks. BMW AG sucks.
• Automatic cars all suck. PDK sucks. SMG sucks.
• EV sucks. Elon sucks.
• Magnus sucks
• Driving fast sucks. Driving slow sucks.
• Turbo sucks. 4-cyl sucks. V8 sucks.
• Front engine sucks. Mid engine sucks. Rear engine sucks.
• FWD sucks. RWD sucks. AWD sucks. 4WD sucks.
• Honda sucks. Nissan sucks. Subaru sucks. Ford sucks. GM sucks. Benz sucks. BMW sucks. Hyundai sucks.
• Stealerships suck. Your indy sucks.
• Hot hatch sucks. Land barge sucks. Lotus sucks for DD.
• DIY sucks. People who don't DIY suck.
• Yellow cars suck. Brown cars suck. 70s colors suck.
• Modern car colors suck. All 4 of them.
• Miatas are for hairdressers, Boxsters are for secretaries,
• BMW sucks. Old BMW suck. New BMW suck.
• GTI sucks. Focus RS sucks. Golf R sucks. BRZ sucks. New Supra sucks.
• Japanese cars all suck. WRX STI sucks. Ricers suck.
• Camber Tuner Modders Stance bros all suck
• Snowflakes suck. Millennials all suck. Anyone younger than me sucks.
• Everything sucks, except me and my car!

None of my other interests are filled with bitter, judgmental and critical people with massive chips on their shoulders.

Like always an entertaining post... makes me ponder why I hang here with bitter, judgemental critical people with massive chips.... probably says more about me than them.....

[Macroni]

Also I missed Traders point, why does someone trying to lowball impact the hobby?

[cassisrot]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

Some of us grew up watching Paul Newman as Harper.

And some of us grew up watching Bruce Jenner.

[speednme1]

Originally Posted by Macroni

Also I missed Traders point, why does someone trying to lowball impact the hobby?

I agree, lowballers shouldn't impact the hobby whatsoever. Lowballers exist in every realm of sales regardless of the item. This hobby will die because cost of service keeps rising, cost of parts keep rising, lack of parts, knowledgeable servicemen are retiring and probably several other things but I don't see why a lowballer would kill any hobby. Then again Trader may know a lot more then we do.

[sugarwood]

Originally Posted by Macroni

Also I missed Traders point, why does someone trying to lowball impact the hobby?

It doesn't. Flippers only flip things that are easy to flip. It shows the market has a demand imbalance that can't be met.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Macroni

Also I missed Traders point, why does someone trying to lowball impact the hobby?

I don’t think it was the lowball so much as the dishonesty. The guy said he was working in the neighborhood. I think more accurately he was working the neighborhood trying to buy a bunch of cars for his wives.

[Alan A]

Originally Posted by speednme1

I agree, lowballers shouldn't impact the hobby whatsoever. Lowballers exist in every realm of sales regardless of the item. This hobby will die because cost of service keeps rising, cost of parts keep rising, lack of parts, knowledgeable servicemen are retiring and probably several other things but I don't see why a lowballer would kill any hobby. Then again Trader may know a lot more then we do.

It will die when people stop wanting them.
The 930 will eventually go the way of the model A.
Hopefully after I die...

[sugarwood]

Originally Posted by Alan A

It will die when people stop wanting them.
The 930 will eventually go the way of the model A.
Hopefully after I die...

Careful.

I pointed out the same thing a while back, and some fools here mentally imploded
They sadly think there is permanent demand for "my precious"... Delusion.

I will paste some of my favorite snippets:

[sugarwood]

Give it time.
Guess what they said about Model T's in the 1950s ?
Today, you can't give one away.

Has nothing to do with production numbers or utility.
15mm T's built, yet it's easier to find a 911 for sale. Why is that?
The bottom line is that, at some point, all the people who like these cars will ALL be dead, on the proper timeline.
The are all destined for the scrap heap. Not if, but when. 50 year, 100 years, that's just details.

Production numbers don't mean squat when demand evaporates.
There are many rare stamps and coins with VERY low production numbers.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.
Hummels used to be worth a lot of money.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.

So yea, every one of our cars is heading to its scrap value.
Think bigger.

Timeline illustrates the logical refutation of facile assertions that "these items can only rise in value because of low production numbers and practical utility".

In our lifetimes, we've already seen demand decline for the model T, the '32 Ford, the '57 Chevy T
... and the latest segment, the 60s muscle car, as the cruise night cohort slowly migrates to nursing homes.

Slowly, and within your lifetime, you will see demand diminish as generations die off.
Eventually... You won't be able to give your "57 Chevy" away. Drive on!

Still don't get it?

Ever hear of Elvis?
Or the Elvis museum in Vegas?
Guess what, people who now go to Vegas have no idea who Elvis is.
No one cares.
Yea, Elvis museum IN VEGAS recently closed. Forever.
Make room for the new nostalgia.

Take a guess why almost every auto museum in the country is a money losing disaster.

So, you go right on thinking that your PORSCHE can only forever go up in price forever because demand will forever rise since nursing homes will soon have track days.
Oddly, anyone who has said this about their '67 Camaro is clearly a fool, yet "this time it's different" when it comes to your particular 911.

57 Chevy? If you have watched prices, there has been a clear and consistent downtrend for the last 10-15 years.
This will only continue as people who like the '57 Chevy increasingly die off. This is not a hard concept to grasp. And it's not a new idea. Generations come and go.

How long do you have to wait for demand to disappear? Until you are dead. Get it? You represent a data point of someone who is very interested in the 911E. You are not alone. But, once you (along with your entire cohort) are dead, the demand for 911E will evaporate, just like your scattered ashes. You are the demand, so you don't get to be exempt from the very forces that create the market dynamic in the first place. You will never get a 911E for dirt cheap, but your kids might, by definition.

Still don't get it?

Look at the collector guitar market. The new generation does not even identify guitars as cool. Guitars are for old dads. Dads are not cool. DJ mixing tables are the new cool. As guitar people slowly age out, the price has been on a decline for many years. The Millennials will not be propping up the vintage guitar market when they hit peak earnings years. Before electric guitars, accordions were a very popular instrument early in the last century. Guess what vintage accordion demand looks like now compared to the peak? Limited production numbers? LOL, doesn't matter when you can't even give one away.

Not everyone can grasp that nostalgia demand is a sliding window. Think bigger. Short term blips are natural variation ebbs and flows. Longer term, history will prove you wrong. They can continue thinking the Millennials will really ramp up the demand for the Duesenberg market once they hit their prime earning years.

Most 20s car guys are into hot hatch GTI/Golf, Evo, WRX, GM muscle, and truck culture.
Many others simply drive F-150's, Elantra, Focus, Civic, etc.
The freak outlier 20s kid who is into 993 does not mean much of anything.

Still don't get it?

Things evolve.
Apple sold more watches than the entire Swiss watch industry in 2017.
And smart watches are still in their nascent stages of evolution.

Kids don't think grandpa's Rolex is cool.
Nothing about grandpa is cool.
One steampunk outlier misfit does not a trend make.

Mechanical watches are another dying industry.
But, you're certainly entitled to your opinion.

Demand for generational nostalgia items decreases over time.
I am correct. When your generation dies off, the production numbers will mean squat.
Model T, '32 Ford, '57 Chevy, Tubbed '67 Camaro......all dwindling demand over decades.

Just remember there will be ZERO demand for your car once your generation is dead.
I drive my 911 a few times a week.
Drive 'em while you got 'em.

Still don't get it?

In the end, when your generation is 100% dead, demand will be much lower than it was when you were alive. Won't matter how great the car was.
Victorian furniture is infinitely higher quality than the disposable garbage sold at Bob's Discount. However, demand has evaporated for 17th & 18th century antiques.

Your generation will not die simultaneously from a large asteroid.
You will die off, slowly, one at a time. Drop by drop.
So, why is it relevant to the topic at hand?
The long term trend can manifest into the short term.

And, rest assured, the long term trend is that fewer and fewer people are lusting after a 1946 Ford Super Deluxe Coupe.
By now, they are all dead or dying. Buyers evaporate, inventory sits longer, and eventually prices reflect that.

And before the court jester says,
"But....but....but....what that gotta do with PORSCH"

A) The cycle never stops. Nothing is immune to time.
B) This is too complicated for you. Find a new discussion.

Still don't get it?
Generations move on....

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/2018/10/17/why-are-these-desirable-collector-cars-cooling-down

“With the Shelbys, GTO, and Challenger, it looks like values are generally tracking pretty flat, but buyer interest (which we track via quote activity) is way down for all of them,” he notes. “The number being added to insurance policies is down, and auction results have been pretty weak.” While their value is holding strong, there just aren’t a lot of new buyers entering that market.
“A lot of the '40s, '50s and early '60s domestics go along with something we've been seeing generally, that lots of '40s and '50s cars primarily appeal to buyers who are quite a bit older. Younger enthusiasts aren't taking up the mantle, so demand is shrinking. This definitely seems to be the case with the bottom spot, the Stylemaster. Values dropped quite a bit recently, and buyers don't seem to be interested in them.”
The lesson is that younger car buyers aren’t “taking up the mantle” on the older cars


Some comments are spot on.

Hagerty has it partly right on why demand is going down. The latest generation of car buyers do not want old cars no matter how cool they might be. The old guys like us are at the point of thinning the collection. The younger buyers want newer cars.

I believe the reason older cars don’t have as much action is twofold. First is it true that people like the cars from their youth. So the buyers today went cars from the 70s 80s or 90s not the 30s 40s 50s and 60s.

This article reminds me of the late 80’s, when pre-WW2 cars took a price tumble. The WW2 generation started to die off, or sell as they got older. Widows were shocked at the auctions, that their husbands cars weren’t worth what their husbands had told them. Prices plummeted, with the possible exception of the top tier coach-built cars

Two, a slow barely perceptual change in generations who are moving the hobby towards the cars they are interested in. My 35 year old nephew a classic example. One day, and it will come, no one will care about a 1972 Porsche 911. Well, maybe a dozen might as tech is spoiling new drivers.
Recently had a mid-80s year old gentleman walk up to me while my cars were outside for washing. He told me mostly about when he was into cars and it was late '30s hotrods. How many are still interested in them and I don’t mean one or two people. I mean hundreds, if not thousands, who could move a market. The answer is obvious.

The target age group for most of these to be nostalgic or tied to is beginning to age out and die off for lack of a better word. Sure the market will carry on for years to come but there will continue to be fewer and fewer people from that timeline. Much like fat fendered street rods of the 80s were hot before them but have since lost their audience


Half of the people that were interested in these cars are already dead. The other half are already well into their 50s. Next time your at a car show or auction look around, you will not see any young people. Every one is 50 plus years old. My prediction is that in 20 years you won’t be able to give most classic or muscle cars away

About ten years ago my wife and I were going out for Sunday breakfast in our 1969 Corvette 427/390hp, numbers matching, M21 4 speed coupe and I opined that these cars would go the way of the Model A once the guys who had drooled over them in their youth had passed away. Then I thought for a minute and said “Why should I care? I’ll be dead.” You’ve gotta take the long term view.

That follows the trend that Hagerty valuation specialist Andrew Newton pointed out several months ago: younger buyers are opting for newer, more affordable collector cars, leaving classic muscle and sports cars with fewer new buyers in the market. The trend of ‘40s and ‘50s cars losing popularity also continues, with the 1946-1948 Chevy Stylemaster and its contemporary Ford counterpart, the Deluxe, tied for the second-lowest score on the list.

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/2018/12/04/muscle-cars-arent-gaining-collector-car-market?

[Macroni]

Matt you and I both know dishonesty is universal.

I again do not understand impact on a hobby historically riddled w/ dishonesty.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Macroni

Matt you and I both know dishonesty is universal.

I again do not understand impact on a hobby historically riddled w/ dishonesty.

True. I think he was just emphasizing how the money has taken a lot of the fun out of it.

[dwelle]

wait, i don’t get it...

[speednme1]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

Give it time.
Guess what they said about Model T's in the 1950s ?
Today, you can't give one away.

Has nothing to do with production numbers or utility.
15mm T's built, yet it's easier to find a 911 for sale. Why is that?
The bottom line is that, at some point, all the people who like these cars will ALL be dead, on the proper timeline.
The are all destined for the scrap heap. Not if, but when. 50 year, 100 years, that's just details.

Production numbers don't mean squat when demand evaporates.
There are many rare stamps and coins with VERY low production numbers.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.
Hummels used to be worth a lot of money.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.

So yea, every one of our cars is heading to its scrap value.
Think bigger.

Timeline illustrates the logical refutation of facile assertions that "these items can only rise in value because of low production numbers and practical utility".

In our lifetimes, we've already seen demand decline for the model T, the '32 Ford, the '57 Chevy T
... and the latest segment, the 60s muscle car, as the cruise night cohort slowly migrates to nursing homes.

Slowly, and within your lifetime, you will see demand diminish as generations die off.
Eventually... You won't be able to give your "57 Chevy" away. Drive on!

Still don't get it?

Ever hear of Elvis?
Or the Elvis museum in Vegas?
Guess what, people who now go to Vegas have no idea who Elvis is.
No one cares.
Yea, Elvis museum IN VEGAS recently closed. Forever.
Make room for the new nostalgia.

Take a guess why almost every auto museum in the country is a money losing disaster.

So, you go right on thinking that your PORSCHE can only forever go up in price forever because demand will forever rise since nursing homes will soon have track days.
Oddly, anyone who has said this about their '67 Camaro is clearly a fool, yet "this time it's different" when it comes to your particular 911.

57 Chevy? If you have watched prices, there has been a clear and consistent downtrend for the last 10-15 years.
This will only continue as people who like the '57 Chevy increasingly die off. This is not a hard concept to grasp. And it's not a new idea. Generations come and go.

How long do you have to wait for demand to disappear? Until you are dead. Get it? You represent a data point of someone who is very interested in the 911E. You are not alone. But, once you (along with your entire cohort) are dead, the demand for 911E will evaporate, just like your scattered ashes. You are the demand, so you don't get to be exempt from the very forces that create the market dynamic in the first place. You will never get a 911E for dirt cheap, but your kids might, by definition.

Still don't get it?

Look at the collector guitar market. The new generation does not even identify guitars as cool. Guitars are for old dads. Dads are not cool. DJ mixing tables are the new cool. As guitar people slowly age out, the price has been on a decline for many years. The Millennials will not be propping up the vintage guitar market when they hit peak earnings years. Before electric guitars, accordions were a very popular instrument early in the last century. Guess what vintage accordion demand looks like now compared to the peak? Limited production numbers? LOL, doesn't matter when you can't even give one away.

Not everyone can grasp that nostalgia demand is a sliding window. Think bigger. Short term blips are natural variation ebbs and flows. Longer term, history will prove you wrong. They can continue thinking the Millennials will really ramp up the demand for the Duesenberg market once they hit their prime earning years.

Most 20s car guys are into hot hatch GTI/Golf, Evo, WRX, GM muscle, and truck culture.
Many others simply drive F-150's, Elantra, Focus, Civic, etc.
The freak outlier 20s kid who is into 993 does not mean much of anything.

Still don't get it?

Things evolve.
Apple sold more watches than the entire Swiss watch industry in 2017.
And smart watches are still in their nascent stages of evolution.

Kids don't think grandpa's Rolex is cool.
Nothing about grandpa is cool.
One steampunk outlier misfit does not a trend make.

Mechanical watches are another dying industry.
But, you're certainly entitled to your opinion.

Demand for generational nostalgia items decreases over time.
I am correct. When your generation dies off, the production numbers will mean squat.
Model T, '32 Ford, '57 Chevy, Tubbed '67 Camaro......all dwindling demand over decades.

Just remember there will be ZERO demand for your car once your generation is dead.
I drive my 911 a few times a week.
Drive 'em while you got 'em.

Still don't get it?

In the end, when your generation is 100% dead, demand will be much lower than it was when you were alive. Won't matter how great the car was.
Victorian furniture is infinitely higher quality than the disposable garbage sold at Bob's Discount. However, demand has evaporated for 17th & 18th century antiques.

Your generation will not die simultaneously from a large asteroid.
You will die off, slowly, one at a time. Drop by drop.
So, why is it relevant to the topic at hand?
The long term trend can manifest into the short term.

And, rest assured, the long term trend is that fewer and fewer people are lusting after a 1946 Ford Super Deluxe Coupe.
By now, they are all dead or dying. Buyers evaporate, inventory sits longer, and eventually prices reflect that.

And before the court jester says,
"But....but....but....what that gotta do with PORSCH"

A) The cycle never stops. Nothing is immune to time.
B) This is too complicated for you. Find a new discussion.

Still don't get it?
Generations move on....

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/2018/10/17/why-are-these-desirable-collector-cars-cooling-down

“With the Shelbys, GTO, and Challenger, it looks like values are generally tracking pretty flat, but buyer interest (which we track via quote activity) is way down for all of them,” he notes. “The number being added to insurance policies is down, and auction results have been pretty weak.” While their value is holding strong, there just aren’t a lot of new buyers entering that market.
“A lot of the '40s, '50s and early '60s domestics go along with something we've been seeing generally, that lots of '40s and '50s cars primarily appeal to buyers who are quite a bit older. Younger enthusiasts aren't taking up the mantle, so demand is shrinking. This definitely seems to be the case with the bottom spot, the Stylemaster. Values dropped quite a bit recently, and buyers don't seem to be interested in them.”
The lesson is that younger car buyers aren’t “taking up the mantle” on the older cars


Some comments are spot on.






That follows the trend that Hagerty valuation specialist Andrew Newton pointed out several months ago: younger buyers are opting for newer, more affordable collector cars, leaving classic muscle and sports cars with fewer new buyers in the market. The trend of ‘40s and ‘50s cars losing popularity also continues, with the 1946-1948 Chevy Stylemaster and its contemporary Ford counterpart, the Deluxe, tied for the second-lowest score on the list.

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/2018/12/04/muscle-cars-arent-gaining-collector-car-market?

Sugar a lot of what you wrote is your opinion. Especially when you talk about a Rolex. You obviously don't follow the watch market. Collectors will always be around as long as people have disposable income. What they collect may change but some items will remain blue chip. If my car becomes obsolete as you say in 50-100 years, I could care less...I'll be long gone. Trends come in waves, what was once hot is not today but tomorrow may be another story. It wasn't that long ago that A Ferrari Dino wasn't even considered a Ferrari by many....today that opinion has changed. As long as gear heads exist some cars will remain collectibles.

[sugarwood]

Originally Posted by speednme1

Sugar a lot of what you wrote is your opinion. Especially when you talk about a Rolex. You obviously don't follow the watch market.

Those collectors are old.
Next gen doesn't care.

GENEVA—You’re 25 years old, basking in the glow of your first big job promotion and a hefty raise. Why not splurge on a big-ticket item?

Your father might have bought a fancy Swiss watch. But the thought doesn’t occur to you—for most of your life, you’ve used your cellphone to check the time. Instead, you book a getaway to Costa Rica, which you document extensively on Instagram.

Swiss watchmaking executive Jean-Claude Biver wants to change that thinking. From his perch at luxury conglomerate LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the 68-year-old has seen younger generations drift away from his centuries-old industry. He is on a mission to get them interested in watches, before it’s too late.

“It’s the first time we have young people not buying watches,” says Mr. Biver, who leads LVMH’s watch division. “Time is everywhere. Why should these kids buy something for the wrists that tells them the same thing they get everywhere?”

Executives across Switzerland’s watch industry have been wrestling with the same question. How can they convince young consumers that mechanical timepieces are relevant—let alone worth the price of a car? At the same time, the tradition-bound manufacturers are fending off Apple Inc. and other tech companies that are disrupting the market with wrist gadgets that track your workouts and organize your social life.

The perils facing the Swiss industry have been laid bare by a sharp downturn starting in 2015

The decline has led watchmakers to lay off hundreds of workers and buy back thousands of expensive, unsold watches, prying off their jewels and melting down their metal components.

“It’s not only a crisis,” says Antonio Calce, chief executive of Girard Perregaux, a watchmaker based in La Chaux-de-Fonds, Switzerland. “We must rethink the existing business model.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-time-running-out-for-the-swiss-watch-industry-1520867714

[MrBonus]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

Those collectors are old.
Next gen doesn't care.



https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-time-running-out-for-the-swiss-watch-industry-1520867714

I think some cars will retain an ongoing interest buoyed by their driving experience. Some of the early, early cars really don't lend much to an engaging spin around the block and are frightening at speeds well below posted limits. As we trudge further and further towards autonomous cars where technology is the master rather than the servant, the interest in these earlier, analog cars with an engaging driving experience will likely persist as long as parts are available and we don't legislate them into obsolescence.

But that's just my opinion as a young-ish guy who owns three cars built long before he was born. I likely am an outlier.

[1979-930]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

Give it time.
Guess what they said about Model T's in the 1950s ?
Today, you can't give one away.

Has nothing to do with production numbers or utility.
15mm T's built, yet it's easier to find a 911 for sale. Why is that?
The bottom line is that, at some point, all the people who like these cars will ALL be dead, on the proper timeline.
The are all destined for the scrap heap. Not if, but when. 50 year, 100 years, that's just details.

Production numbers don't mean squat when demand evaporates.
There are many rare stamps and coins with VERY low production numbers.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.
Hummels used to be worth a lot of money.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.

So yea, every one of our cars is heading to its scrap value.
Think bigger.

Timeline illustrates the logical refutation of facile assertions that "these items can only rise in value because of low production numbers and practical utility".

In our lifetimes, we've already seen demand decline for the model T, the '32 Ford, the '57 Chevy T
... and the latest segment, the 60s muscle car, as the cruise night cohort slowly migrates to nursing homes.

Slowly, and within your lifetime, you will see demand diminish as generations die off.
Eventually... You won't be able to give your "57 Chevy" away. Drive on!

Still don't get it?

Ever hear of Elvis?
Or the Elvis museum in Vegas?
Guess what, people who now go to Vegas have no idea who Elvis is.
No one cares.
Yea, Elvis museum IN VEGAS recently closed. Forever.
Make room for the new nostalgia.

Take a guess why almost every auto museum in the country is a money losing disaster.

So, you go right on thinking that your PORSCHE can only forever go up in price forever because demand will forever rise since nursing homes will soon have track days.
Oddly, anyone who has said this about their '67 Camaro is clearly a fool, yet "this time it's different" when it comes to your particular 911.

57 Chevy? If you have watched prices, there has been a clear and consistent downtrend for the last 10-15 years.
This will only continue as people who like the '57 Chevy increasingly die off. This is not a hard concept to grasp. And it's not a new idea. Generations come and go.

How long do you have to wait for demand to disappear? Until you are dead. Get it? You represent a data point of someone who is very interested in the 911E. You are not alone. But, once you (along with your entire cohort) are dead, the demand for 911E will evaporate, just like your scattered ashes. You are the demand, so you don't get to be exempt from the very forces that create the market dynamic in the first place. You will never get a 911E for dirt cheap, but your kids might, by definition.

Still don't get it?

Look at the collector guitar market. The new generation does not even identify guitars as cool. Guitars are for old dads. Dads are not cool. DJ mixing tables are the new cool. As guitar people slowly age out, the price has been on a decline for many years. The Millennials will not be propping up the vintage guitar market when they hit peak earnings years. Before electric guitars, accordions were a very popular instrument early in the last century. Guess what vintage accordion demand looks like now compared to the peak? Limited production numbers? LOL, doesn't matter when you can't even give one away.

Not everyone can grasp that nostalgia demand is a sliding window. Think bigger. Short term blips are natural variation ebbs and flows. Longer term, history will prove you wrong. They can continue thinking the Millennials will really ramp up the demand for the Duesenberg market once they hit their prime earning years.

Most 20s car guys are into hot hatch GTI/Golf, Evo, WRX, GM muscle, and truck culture.
Many others simply drive F-150's, Elantra, Focus, Civic, etc.
The freak outlier 20s kid who is into 993 does not mean much of anything.

Still don't get it?

Things evolve.
Apple sold more watches than the entire Swiss watch industry in 2017.
And smart watches are still in their nascent stages of evolution.

Kids don't think grandpa's Rolex is cool.
Nothing about grandpa is cool.
One steampunk outlier misfit does not a trend make.

Mechanical watches are another dying industry.
But, you're certainly entitled to your opinion.

Demand for generational nostalgia items decreases over time.
I am correct. When your generation dies off, the production numbers will mean squat.
Model T, '32 Ford, '57 Chevy, Tubbed '67 Camaro......all dwindling demand over decades.

Just remember there will be ZERO demand for your car once your generation is dead.
I drive my 911 a few times a week.
Drive 'em while you got 'em.

Still don't get it?

In the end, when your generation is 100% dead, demand will be much lower than it was when you were alive. Won't matter how great the car was.
Victorian furniture is infinitely higher quality than the disposable garbage sold at Bob's Discount. However, demand has evaporated for 17th & 18th century antiques.

Your generation will not die simultaneously from a large asteroid.
You will die off, slowly, one at a time. Drop by drop.
So, why is it relevant to the topic at hand?
The long term trend can manifest into the short term.

And, rest assured, the long term trend is that fewer and fewer people are lusting after a 1946 Ford Super Deluxe Coupe.
By now, they are all dead or dying. Buyers evaporate, inventory sits longer, and eventually prices reflect that.

And before the court jester says,
"But....but....but....what that gotta do with PORSCH"

A) The cycle never stops. Nothing is immune to time.
B) This is too complicated for you. Find a new discussion.

Still don't get it?
Generations move on....

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/2018/10/17/why-are-these-desirable-collector-cars-cooling-down

“With the Shelbys, GTO, and Challenger, it looks like values are generally tracking pretty flat, but buyer interest (which we track via quote activity) is way down for all of them,” he notes. “The number being added to insurance policies is down, and auction results have been pretty weak.” While their value is holding strong, there just aren’t a lot of new buyers entering that market.
“A lot of the '40s, '50s and early '60s domestics go along with something we've been seeing generally, that lots of '40s and '50s cars primarily appeal to buyers who are quite a bit older. Younger enthusiasts aren't taking up the mantle, so demand is shrinking. This definitely seems to be the case with the bottom spot, the Stylemaster. Values dropped quite a bit recently, and buyers don't seem to be interested in them.”
The lesson is that younger car buyers aren’t “taking up the mantle” on the older cars


Some comments are spot on.






That follows the trend that Hagerty valuation specialist Andrew Newton pointed out several months ago: younger buyers are opting for newer, more affordable collector cars, leaving classic muscle and sports cars with fewer new buyers in the market. The trend of ‘40s and ‘50s cars losing popularity also continues, with the 1946-1948 Chevy Stylemaster and its contemporary Ford counterpart, the Deluxe, tied for the second-lowest score on the list.

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/2018/12/04/muscle-cars-arent-gaining-collector-car-market?

Holy crap. You truly have nothing better to do.


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