Tesla: The Great Short

[legion]

Originally Posted by speeder

So is Tesla going out of business or what? Serious question, I don’t follow their stock because I don’t have any.

They are still selling like hot cakes in my part of town but then, it’s Tinseltown. So not the best barometer of the country as a whole. There was a brand new P100d and a Model X in front of coffee shop this morning, both with temp tags.

I fully expect it to stumble on for another decade, adding bailouts to its current subsidies, before it disappears. How will it disappear? Well there will be a trial. Someone in government will put Musk on trial to bury the government's role in creating Tesla and letting the scam go on for so long. During this process, I expect many key assets to be sold off, but I expect the Tesla name to disappear because it is permanently linked with Musk's crimes.

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by legion

I fully expect it to stumble on for another decade, adding bailouts to its current subsidies, before it disappears. How will it disappear? Well there will be a trial. Someone in government will put Musk on trial to bury the government's role in creating Tesla and letting the scam go on for so long. During this process, I expect many key assets to be sold off, but I expect the Tesla name to disappear because it is permanently linked with Musk's crimes.

Likely a trial at some point, but the Tesla name is a household name, and trademark. Like movie stars sometimes say, there is no bad publicity.

I bet the Tesla name will be on electric cars far into the future. Most of the car buying public are not really car people. They buy a car as an appliance.

I suspect the real nail in the coffin for Tesla is all the German, Japanese, and American companies making electric cars because the governments are requiring them.

The Chinese are looming for a car company, but they will have to hire a bunch of American or Japanese engineers and designers to have a real chance. The Chinese designed cars are a joke they are so bad.

Like the first Hondas, were just a pitiful motorcycle with a ugly steel body on it. Honda and Toyota figured out real fast how to make a car Americans will buy.

[Sooner or later]

China has over a 100 companies making electrics. Some are foreign, some joint venture. Some wholly owned Chinese companies.

China has damn near as many electrics on the road and charging stations as the rest of the world combined.

[Sooner or later]

Highest number of electric cars

With 1,227,770 cars, China has the highest electric car stock in the IEA countries. Canada comes 13th with 23,620 electric cars. There's one electric car to every 1,554 Canadians, while there's one to every 30 Norwegians.

China - 1,227,770 electric cars
United States - 762,060
Japan - 205,350
Norway - 176,310
United Kingdom - 133,670
Netherlands - 119,340
France - 118,770
Germany - 109,560
Sweden - 49,671
Belgium - 31,630
Highest number of charging points
China, the fourth largest country in the world by area, has more charging points than any other country, while Canada comes ninth with the second largest area.

China - 213,903
United States - 45,868
Netherlands - 32,875
Japan - 28,879
Germany - 24,289
France - 15,978
United Kingdom - 13,534
Norway - 10,350
Canada - 5,841
Korea - 5,612

[speeder]

At one time, I thought that Tesla was a good stock because of the inevitability of someone larger buying them at some point but I never invested.

[legion]

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera

Likely a trial at some point, but the Tesla name is a household name, and trademark. Like movie stars sometimes say, there is no bad publicity.

There was a point when WorldCom and Enron were household names...

[flipper35]

Originally Posted by legion

I fully expect it to stumble on for another decade, adding bailouts to its current subsidies, before it disappears. How will it disappear? Well there will be a trial. Someone in government will put Musk on trial to bury the government's role in creating Tesla and letting the scam go on for so long. During this process, I expect many key assets to be sold off, but I expect the Tesla name to disappear because it is permanently linked with Musk's crimes.

As long as Tesla can sell their carbon credits to GM/FCA/Ford they will scrape by. Once they lose access to those millions they will have a hard time making payroll. The traditional manufactures will have to come up with something different at that point as well.

[Ronbo]

Originally Posted by RWebb

Chevy just upped the range on the Bolt to 250+ so that means there is not a lot of low end potential for Tesla
3

Despite the Bolt’s increased range it really doesn’t compete at all with the base Model 3 in most other areas. Too much of the Bolt feels really low-end despite being a decent car overall.


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[red-beard]

Originally Posted by Ronbo

Despite the Bolt’s increased range it really doesn’t compete at all with the base Model 3 in most other areas. Too much of the Bolt feels really low-end despite being a decent car overall.


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What does a Bolt cost?

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by Ronbo

Despite the Bolt’s increased range it really doesn’t compete at all with the base Model 3 in most other areas. Too much of the Bolt feels really low-end despite being a decent car overall.


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Right - but it blocks Tesla from moving into the low end; sorry if my post was unclear

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by legion

There was a point when WorldCom and Enron were household names...

Not really. 99% of households had never heard of those companies.

[Ronbo]

Originally Posted by red-beard

What does a Bolt cost?

The answer is not as straightforward as one would think. Chevy is offering lots of incentives, and it depends on the individual which ones you get. I believe it also matters where you live. I think you can get a base model Bolt for around $25K/$26K -ish depending on the above and how badly the dealer wants to move them. The msrp is in the $35K area. The “upscale” model is $40K+ depending on options.


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[Ronbo]

Originally Posted by RWebb

Right - but it blocks Tesla from moving into the low end; sorry if my post was unclear

I think it depends on how you look at it. The sticker price on each are pretty comparable but the Bolt has a lot of incentives which would be applied.


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[Sooner or later]

Tax credits have about dried up on both. 1,875 on both. (Volt hits the 1,875 in Sept)

[Racerbvd]

[Tobra]

Byron, that is hilarious

[biosurfer1]

I was always impressed that not only did Tesla create AC, when Edison got butt hurt he lost the bid to electrify the world's fair and said Tesla/Westinghouse couldn't use his lightbulb, Tesla designed/manufactured a better one in less than 100 days

[legion]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Tax credits have about dried up on both. 1,875 on both. (Volt hits the 1,875 in Sept)

Those are only the direct-to-consumer tax credits. It still collects massive subsidies at the federal and state (California, Nevada, and New York mostly).

[MysticLlama]

Earnings call bump.

[posted from my Model 3]

[legion]

Huh?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results-idUSKBN1X81NM

Tesla Inc’s (TSLA.O) third-quarter revenue tumbled 39% in the United States, its first drop in more than two years, but sales in China and other regions surged, the electric car maker’s break down of sales by geography showed on Tuesday.
…
In its earnings report earlier this month, Tesla reported a nearly 8% drop in total revenue to $6.30 billion, missing analysts’ average estimate of $6.33 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. It did not break down sales by geography in the report.

The company, however, surprised investors with a quarterly profit, making good on Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s promise, as it delivered a record 97,000 cars.

Reading between the lines, as a guy who used to analyze financial reports, I strongly suspect that Tesla had some one-time sources of revenue that boosted this quarter's numbers...

Edit: I found it:

The filing shows warranty adjustments and other one-time items are a large driver of perceived strength, Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin said, who downgraded stock to “sell” from “neutral”, adding that he sees margins as unsustainable.