Inverted
 

3 year yield 2.02%

10 year yield 1.74%

Just sayin'........

Hasn't that happened several times recently?

Yep. Not as much though..

My credit union pays 3.5% on my checking account, up to 25 grand. Better than most CDs.

The widest gap since early 2007...the fundamentals of our economy are sound was a bit later :(.

I thought this was a Patrick HELP thread :)!

Won't last....3 yr CD yields have dropped 150 basis pts in months....

Most new offerings have disappeared today...rut-roh...

Yield curve inversion (typical is 3 mo to 10 yr) have an excellent record of predicting recessions. I've read that the strongest signal is when the curve remains inverted for 3+ months. This inversion started > 3 mo ago (March 2019?) and seems to be getting deeper.

Every time, various pundits say "its different this time" but, so far, it never is.

The lag from inversion starting to recession starting is variable. Can be 1+ year.

Stock markets top out before recessions start. The lead can be 1 year.

When yield curve inversion starts, you have to figure that stock market top is likely anywhere from imminent to 1 year off.

Investors can get too clever with trying to nail the exact timing of market top. Just accept low confidence on timing but decent confidence on outcome.

I had a frustrating conversation last Tuesday. A client yelled at and fired me (taking his $ elsewhere). He was furious because his portfolio was 15% cash (at yield +2.05%) in an up market. Didn't help to point out that, despite cash, the portfolio was +22% year to date. Well, I'm not exactly upset about the last couple days' action.

Past discussions have been about it going near flat, with the possibility of inverting.

It inverts because T buyers expect negative instability.

This shifts them to wanting to put their money away long term.

Which puts all the competition for the long term T's.

Which drops the I-rate for the long term T's.

I do see that a lot of powerful people are motivated to disrupt the daylights out of this country for political power.

With an election around the corner, perhaps a major disruption and economic pain is planned and in the works.

A lot will come down to if we let ourselves be disrupted. How strong are we emotionally and rationally?

I used to think this was paranoid talk...but there are people out there who are able to influence markets. Soros comes to mind, but I'm thinking there are others with not such high profiles.

Ever watch the price of gasoline ahead of elections?

Look at when Bill Clinton was up for re-election.

Compare it to when Bush was up for re-election.

Look at it when Obama was up for re-election.

Since most of the debt is held here (between the US gov & private), and outside of US the single largest holder is China (1.x Trillion)...

Doh!

maybe time for an inversion table

^^^^

He just bought one...I warned him about getting stuck upside down the first time ;)

You have to have a lot more than a Trillion to skew the US Treasury market...

Next thing you know you will be telling us that Leftists have micro chips implanted in their heads and that during the fulll moon phase of the Lunar cycle they get reprogrammed with the new talking points..:eek:

Just pointing out who one of the bigly players is Tabby. I just know me, you and Soros can't do what we talked about ;)....oops

Nebermind...

Yeh - getting stuck upside down can suck the interest right out of you:D

The downloads are hidden in windows and iPhone updates..... ;)