Jeremy Clarkson had a metaphor a few years back about this topic. At some point will gas engine cars become obsolete for commuting? Probably. But so did the horse, and now people are able to enjoy horses for leisure and sport.

Not the end of the world.

If they could change to EV’s over night, we would still need to pump and refine the same amount oil to keep aircraft in the sky. Unless there’s a battery powered 747 around the corner I’m unaware off. Will we dump the gasoline like they did in the 1800’s as there was no use for it?

I think my grandkids will be filling up at gas stations.

Rich

Thank you.

Without a massive, and I mean massive, upgrade to power grids around the globe, in production, transmission and reliability, EVs will be a niche player.

Logistics is everything: Where is the power coming from?

Then there is pollution, and not just in the massive increase in power generation and transmission, but in the mining of the elements that make EV possible. NIMBY is going to play a role.

BTW, I would own an EV if it made sense where I live. I have no antipathy towards EV, but I am a realist when it comes to large scale transportation realities.

My prediction is that in 10 years things won't be whole hell of a lot different than they are now. I'll check this thread in 10 years.

All of this ^^. The power for the EVs has to come from somewhere. I used to work for a power generation company. That particular company didn't have any coal fired generators. I think there may have been a few fuel oil that were basically back-ups, but almost all of them were natural gas (they did also have a geothermal in Cali and a very small solar over in NJ somewhere). So they were a pretty clean power company.

Like you said, the power's also got to get to the cars.

Then there's the raw materials to make the cars. The tree huggers are all in on EVs being the savior of the world, but that's just because they don't have a pit mine that's changed the environment for them in their back yard.

I haven't kept up with all of the advancements and technical bits for EVs. I can't help but think that, at least for now, hybrids being a more practical alternative to full electric. But maybe the technology has advanced enough that hybrid doesn't really offer much advantage.

This came out Jan 2nd. Gasoline will still be 44% of total global sales by 2030. Full electric will be 18%.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1581689190.png

I too would buy an electric vehicle for my local trips if it made economical sense and I needed a new vehicle. It sure will not be that ugly Tesla pickup monstrosity.

A replacement vehicle for me will not be to replace the 911, it would be for the El Camino. It will have to have a pickup bed, light duty hauling, occasional utility trailer towing, and be able to go 250 miles in the real world. And than means I can leave and get home on a trip of 250 miles with no recharging at a minimum. And d it on 0F days or 110F days in comfort. My 911 can go 500 miles on a tank, but I rarely go past 400 per tank.

I suspect by the time I am ready to sell my 911 the apple iCar car will be available. I wonder if it will have windows? Anyway then I just punch in my destination on my phone, and it will get me there and back. That is more than 10 years out I think.

I'll believe that when I see it. :)

I have had it for 27 years, and have personally put 368,000 miles on it. Right now there is not one vehicle on the market to replace it, except another El Camino. I honestly don't know what replacement vehicle I would get if it were stolen or totaled or someone offered me stupid money for it.

When Glen says "come and take it" he's not talking about guns, he's talking about his El Camino.

It would take 25% more electricity than we use today to replace all the gasoline cars on the road in the US today. That doesn't mean we need 25% more power plants, it means we just need to charge the majority of the cars at night when power demand is the lowest. Fortunately that's when most people need to charge their car.

I also don't see a full changeover in 10 years but we're only one major battery advancement from Battery Electric Vehicles being able to handle almost everyone's car needs, plus short to medium distance commercial vehicles.

This is a very good point.

However the comparison of gas engine cars to horses, and EV's to gas engine cars of the 1900's is very Off the mark. Battery tech is no where near competitive enough to displace the gas engine car ubiquity.

Efficiencies in ICE engines coupled with short interval energy recovery systems make the hybrid gas car the most likely machine to displace the typical car.

Full EV's ... it's the ridiculously low energy density of ridiculously expensive batteries that make EV's non-competitive.

But wouldn't all the heavy charging cables produce a tripping hazard?

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1581697082.jpg

Seriously, not everyone has a garage.

And if they do, it's likely filled full of crap other than commuter car.

You know, things like inflatable unicorns.

Bah! WHat do you know about electricity and power generation and all of that stuff! Prolly nothin!

;)

:D

Easily solved...next argument?:)



http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1581697840.jpg

Hmm, smoking while filling your car with gas or...
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1581698714.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1581698714.jpg

"only one major battery advancement "

Define "major"

and if it is ONLY... then why not use your super electrical knowhow to just do that? ...only one major battery advancement ... easy peasy. Just call it no big deal and we are THERE! --w'Hoo!

Oh... right... Physics. ..

Local grid/transformers will need to be upgraded to handle a neighborhood full of EV.

Are you assuming that there is excess grid capacity at night?

David works for a major producer. He's not really assuming anything, I don't think.

But yes, most of the time, far less electricity is used at night than during the day.

That's why you find a lot of electric companies advertising free nights and that sort of thing. Not only is there less demand at night, but it's actually cheaper at night too.