Corona Virus..no joke? Con't
 

Starting new thread to continue the page challenged http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/1050915-corona-virus-no-joke.html

Yup.

Forget the curve fitting modelling nonsense meant for public consumption, no surprise Google and Facebook have been working quietly on this.

Finally, SC county, one of the hotspots, gets its reporting act together with # tested confirming the flat line.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1585965089.jpg

Who has all the pending backlog in Cali?

State numbers
Total tested 94,800 (about 10% SC)
Positive 10,701 (about 10% SC)
Pending 59,500 ( less than 1/2% SC)

Avg turnaround time in SC is pretty damn good.

Something's odd about the Cali numbers...

Apr 2 10701 cases out of 35267 test results.
Apr 3 12026 cases out of 113687

Doesn't that mean out of the 78000 new test results only 1300 were positive ?

I saw it when the change happened. I just couldn't post it.

It could be that they were all negative tests that they just didn't report because they were negative.

But, on the other hand, Cali now has a positive rate of 11.5% while the rest of the country is at a 19.4% positive rate. Quite a difference.

Prior to the dump they were at 30% positive which was very high vs the rest of the country.

I have my guess on what they did but ain't gonna say it. Well, on second thought, yes I will.

They were getting their azz beat up over the huge pending number. So they just cleared out the backlog. (Really, not a bad idea. Old data/samples are worthless data/samples) It looks like there were a high number of actual negatives based on the 30% positive rate prior to the dump. It also looks like there were positives that were classified negative in the dump based on the 11.5% after dump percent. Pure conjecture on my part.

We'll see what % the next few reports show up at. Low rate (11%) and my guess goes up in flames. In line with the national 20% avg and my conjecture has legs.

^^^ Good point.
Still flying blind then, not knowing whether we're at 11500 or 30000.

Well, the local press is on their case now including a choice quote from Dr Ioannidis.

Today's numbers shed no light. Both of these days are after the dump.

Yeaterday
12026 cases
126,700 total tests
13,000 pending

Today
13438 cases
132,500 total tests
15,000 pending.

So...
1412 new cases
4,800 new tests
An additional 2,000 pending.

1,412, new cases out of 2,800 new tests (removed the 2,000 pending) for a 50% positive rate. Ouch. Even with the pending 2,000 being all negative the rate is still a 30% rate. Ouch

Pending climbing again and the numbers look wormy for today. We will see what tomorrow brings...

Looking good for folks up in WA, the nation's first hotspot.
Today's projection.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1586148903.jpg
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Oregon's positive rate is only ~5% (not that we've got much for metropolitan crowding other than PDX):

https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-COVID-19

North Carolina is at 6%

2585 positives out of 40,045 tests

I am sure Portland for Oregon and Charlotte for NC are higher than average for each state.

^^^I saw the 95% negative in Oregon. Weird? Either we test at any sneeze, tests are defective, or something else.

Funny thing? From what I hear, it is difficult to be tested in Oregon. Example: my friend who is a ICU nurse in a COVID ward has had a cough for weeks. She was exposed super early and got very ill and the cough two days following exposure. She only got tested recently - negative.

Makes zero sense. I'm not saying she is ill with COVID, but the testing protocol defies logic given the 95% negative rate.

And, FYI, my wife and I have both been mildly ill for 5 days. That is extremely rare for me. My 83 year old father (whom I have not been in contact with) has been mildly ill for about 3-4 weeks. None of use have been tested, we haven't even called our docs as we seem mostly ok.

Strange stuff.

Be Well my friends.

Oregon is running slightly behind the national average; 5052 test per million.

Every state has it's own set of testing and reporting problems. Oklahoma doesn't report all of their negative tests. Few states report pending.

Florida probably has the best data of any state (I haven't looked at all). They can tell you how often a confirmed case farts in a day (almost).

They report about 1,100 pending on a consistent basis. No big swings. Their positive rate is about 11% day in, day out. They have reported 113,000 tests, not including pending.

https://nypost.com/2020/06/06/cuomo-accelerates-reopening-plans-as-covid-19-deaths-drop/
https://thenypost.files.wordpress.co...rip=all&w=1280

“This is an acceleration for us because we are doing so well on the metrics, but people still have to stay smart.”

9th day

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1591481586.jpg

Wonder what happened to Sooner? He was the most prolific poster in that other virus thread....then suddenly AWOL.

2 months later..

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1591501291.JPG

All they had to do was stop sending the infected to nursing homes.

This is what my friends in Germany are saying about travel advice to a friend who is trying to move across the continent

"Germany drops travel restrictions from June 15th for all EU countries (including UK). Border controls stop from June 15th as well. Quarantine only required returning from Sweden due to infection level there. "