It's earthquake weather

[sammyg2]

Hope they're wrong.

San Andreas Fault earthquake swarm sparks fears of ‘Big One’
Seismologists say chance of larger quake is 'significantly elevated'
By Julia Musto

A swarm of minor earthquakes near California's Salton Sea is raising concern about the potential for a larger temblor at the state's San Andreas Fault.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the dozens of tremors began in the early morning on Monday, ranging in size from a 2.6 magnitude quake to a 4.6 magnitude quake northwest of Palm Springs under the southeastern part of the Salton Sea.

The swarm marks only the fourth time in almost 90 years of modern seismology records that such an incident has occurred in that part of the Golden State.

The area is overdue for a "Big One." Larger-scale quakes on the San Andreas Fault are expected every 200 years on average, and the southern area has not seen action since 1680 to 1690.

According to The Los Angeles Times, there is generally a 20% chance of a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake on the fault over the next 30 years.

"During this earthquake swarm, the probability of larger earthquakes in this region is significantly greater than usual. The southernmost section of the San Andreas Fault is capable of rupturing in large-magnitude earthquakes (magnitude 7+), but the last earthquake that strong was more than 300 years ago," the Geological Survey said in a Monday statement.

"In a typical week, there is approximately a 1-in-10,000 chance of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the southernmost San Andreas Fault. That probability is significantly elevated while swarm activity remains high," they wrote.

A calculated 1-in-100 chance of a high-magnitude quake in the next week is a worrying rise from the normal 1-in-10,000 odds.

The last time a similar swarm happened was almost four years ago, prompting San Bernardino officials to close City Hall for two days, though no bigger quake occurred.

This time, the smaller quakes are notably farther away from the San Andreas fault than the 2016 swarm.

That said, the San Andreas Fault is dangerous enough to inspire a 2015 blockbuster disaster movie featuring Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, as well as numerous references in similar films.

And in the worst-case scenario, it has the ability to unleash a devastating 8.2 magnitude quake that would rip through the state.

While large earthquakes can easily happen with no detectable warning at all, California has a history of smaller earthquakes preceding "Mega Quakes."

In 1857, the San Andreas Fault saw a 7.8 magnitude temblor preceded by two smaller-scale quakes farther north and, in 1992, a 6.1 magnitude quake in Joshua Tree National Park kicked off a series of strengthening quakes.

A 7.1 magnitude earthquake in July 2019 was the most powerful quake to hit the state in two decades.

https://www.foxnews.com/weather/a-swarm-of-small-earthquakes-in-california-san-andreas-fault-questions

[masraum]

Wow, 100x higher chance. Hopefully, they are wrong. Good luck, folks!

[Seahawk]

Having grown up in Southern California and having experienced a few quakes (later a few in San Diego) I can say unequivocally that I'd rather do the Housewife's of the Weather Channel Hurricane Show than a large quake.

The Housewife's of the Weather Channel is really annoying but I can see the thing coming.

Best.

[vash]

scary. real scary.

but as a civil engineer - job security.

[sammyg2]

I've been through a lot of earthquakes, but they've either been relatively small or far away. Enuff to shake things but not to do much damage.
But the san andreas is about 30 miles away where it goes past san berdo, and if it breaks that won't be far enough.

[GH85Carrera]

We had a 4.5 earthquake about 5 years back. There was a loud BOOM that sounded like a large empty dumpster being dropped on the street out front. Then the floor had a wave of motion roll through. We have a concrete slab floor with carpet in my home office, and it moved. The door to my closet started rattling, and I even went over and pushed on it to stop the rattle, and it started rattling again so the wave was still moving but I could not feel it.

Zero damage to our house or area. I can't imagine a big one like Japan had at 9.1 a few years back. I will take a risk of tornadoes any day. They hit one very small area and the civilization just a few blocks way is fine. Large earthquakes or hurricanes wipe out huge areas and take years to recover.

Good luck. I will dig out the picture of the lawn chair in the back yard that was knocked over Sammy posts when the weather is bad in other areas.

[sammyg2]

The lawn chair is fine, just keep those flying cows away.

[GH85Carrera]

This is the restaurant at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, OK. Really!

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by afterburn 549

Like ants living on a stove top , hoping no one turns it on.
Perhaps the the answer is obvious or it will be made obvious?

Millions of humans live on the sides of volcanoes, or in the path of the destruction. The entire gulf coast and east coast of the US will have a hurricane again. No maybe, it will happen. Just like the "the big one" that is 100 years overdue already. It simply will happen, no one know for sure just when.

Look how many people live along the Mississippi river. From Lake Itasca, Minnesota to the gulf millions of people live within the floodwaters of the river. It will flood again. 100% guarantee. Floods kill more people than any other weather event.

Pick your location. There is risk. I am 100% safe from tsunamis. That is certain!

[70SATMan]

[IROC]

We had a 5.1 on Sunday...

[onewhippedpuppy]

So the odds of an earthquake are now better than the odds of dying from CV? Time to panic!!!

[pete3799]

Quick.......get some toilet paper before it's too late.

[unclebilly]

Originally Posted by pete3799

Quick.......get some toilet paper before it's too late.

What? stores near you still have toilet paper?

[Evans, Marv]

I check area earthquake activity on a fairly regular basis and happened to notice this activity in Niland and commented to my wife about them. We have small ones on a semi regular basis and got rocked really well during the one that hit Calexico some years back. Even though the faults in the area aren't directly connected with the San Andreas, I recently read about how they are learning faults are more interconnected than once thought. I went through a major earthquake in 1952 in the small town of Tehachapi, CA. It devastated the town. If you're curious, do a seach on it. I'm glad we live in an area of few, local faults nearby and over a good base of bedrock.

[sammyg2]

Well before my time, but the wik says:

The 1952 Kern County earthquake occurred on July 21 in the southern San Joaquin Valley and measured 7.3 on the moment magnitude scale.
The main shock occurred at 4:52 am Pacific Daylight Time (11:52 UTC), killed 12 people and injured hundreds, and caused an estimated $60 million in property damage.
A small sector of damage near Bealville corresponded to a maximum Mercalli intensity of XI (Extreme), though this intensity rating was not representative of the majority of damage.
The earthquake occurred on the White Wolf Fault near the community of Wheeler Ridge and was the strongest to occur in California since the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.

The town of Tehachapi suffered the greatest damage and loss of life from the earthquake, though other locations in Kern County experienced significant damage as well, but its effects were widely felt throughout central and southern California.
The July mainshock had a significant aftershock sequence that persisted into July and August with many magnitude 5+ events with intensities of V (Moderate) to VII (Very strong).
Six of these aftershocks occurred on the day of the mainshock, but the strongest aftershock came on August 22 as a M5.8 event that had a maximum perceived intensity of VIII (Severe) and resulted in the deaths of two people and caused an additional $10 million in property damage.

[flatbutt]

Well wouldn't that complete the trifecta. Fingers crossed for them being wrong.

[Bill Douglas]

Good luck. I'm also not a huge fan of earth quakes.

[rcooled]

Originally Posted by Bill Douglas

I'm also not a huge fan of earth quakes.

Here in CA, earthquakes were always a bit of a "WOW" moment for me since I first felt one back in 1975. That was until Oct. of 1989, when a 6.9 magnitude 'quake hit about 10mi. from here. I take them much more seriously now...

[Bill Douglas]

Originally Posted by rcooled

I take them much more seriously now...

Me too. I'd never noticed one until I was about 21 years old. I always thought they were those things that made the house plant leaves waver a bit, or gave you that "wooo too much coffee" feeling.

Then, post Christchurch earthquake, all the earthquakes have been big ones. Walls moving 100mm back and forth, a bit hard to stand up. One even made the sea recede about 200 meters