Do you ever try to "time the market" by selling when things are up?

masraum · 02-26-2026, 06:23 AM

The market has been going up like gang busters. I've always been a "buy and hold" kind of guy. Something in the back of my head keeps saying "take the money and run" (well, sell and put somewhere safe while waiting to buy back in on the next dip).

But that sounds like a bad idea when you don't know when the next dip will be. Like I said, buy and hold.

KFC911 · 02-26-2026, 06:34 AM

In my mid-50s, I was 100% equities (for that portion of my stuff)... I changed my exposure due to it not being what I wanted as I approached 60 ...

Missed some bigly returns ... still kicked enough a$$ for me tho'.

Whatcha gonna do wif it .... Bitcoins, Gold, Lottery Tix

?

What's your goal, time-horizon, etc.

Only Steve knows.....

aschen · 02-26-2026, 06:35 AM

study after study have shown it nearly impossible to do effectively and a fools errand.

KFC911 · 02-26-2026, 06:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aschen

study after study have shown it nearly impossible to do effectively and a fools errand.

I NEVER did that ... but that doesn't mean I avoided the latter

.

Age matters.... Steve knows this.

My 100% equities portfolio did take a 40% hit as I "retired" a long time ago... wisdom ..... wezedumb me and my advisor

aschen · 02-26-2026, 06:54 AM

Taking high market position as a reminder to rebalance portfolio to something more appropriate for goals seems reasonable and a different thing.

The recovery of down markets are historically very swift and if you get lucky catching the low point, you likely miss the recovery. You have to buy the winning lottery ticket twice in a row as the money guys podcast says.

masraum · 02-26-2026, 07:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KFC911

In my mid-50s, I was 100% equities (for that portion of my stuff)... I changed my exposure due to it not being what I wanted as I approached 60 ...

Missed some bigly returns ... still kicked enough a$$ for me tho'.

Whatcha gonna do wif it .... Bitcoins, Gold, Lottery Tix

?

What's your goal, time-horizon, etc.

Only Steve knows.....

I have been 100% equities (low cost index funds). In the past week, I switched to 90/10 equities/bonds. I figure I'm 10 years out (not anticipating early or staying late, but who knows what the future really holds).

Quote:

Originally Posted by aschen

study after study have shown it nearly impossible to do effectively and a fools errand.

That's my assumption, and why I am ignoring the little voice. It would be great to KNOW a week before a downturn was going to happen. but even when you read, "every 3-4 years", that could be 2 years or 10 years. If you were early, you could lose a bundle.

LWJ · 02-26-2026, 07:10 AM

I own way too much of a highly volatile stock. It tanked in the last few months. But it will rocket back up some day soon as it is a great company. Yesterday it was painfully low and I told Mrs. LWJ that we should buy more or buy options. It is up $5 this am.

Summary: I have a position that I am highly familiar with but no. I don't do weird stuff with market timing.

KFC911 · 02-26-2026, 07:13 AM

You guys are not wrong

...

I endured the 40% crash of 08 ... did not blink, and then it took off like a rocket....Mar of '09.... and hasn't really stopped. Long horizons ... stay put ...

Valuations do matter tho' .....bigly bubbles too...

masraum · 02-26-2026, 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aschen

Taking high market position as a reminder to rebalance portfolio to something more appropriate for goals seems reasonable and a different thing.

The recovery of down markets are historically very swift and if you get lucky catching the low point, you likely miss the recovery. You have to buy the winning lottery ticket twice in a row as the money guys podcast says.

Right. Even if you could be certain that you sold high, and you then had some $$ sitting and waiting, you might miss the bottom of the dip which would be fine. But the other problem is, (totally hypothetically), if I sold today, and the market continued to go up for another year, and then it dipped, but never got below the level that it's at today, then I'd have missed gains. It just doesn't make sense, because there are too many variables and you will almost never get it right.

Rebalancing is different than selling and hoping for a dip so you can realize gains when you buy back in.

zakthor · zakthor's Garage

A few times the thing I buy skyrockets 20% in a week or 100% in a year and I want to sell but I never do.

I buy planning for long term but I think the math says I should get out of things that appreciate so fast because that growth is market hype and isn’t sustainable.

masraum · 02-26-2026, 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zakthor

A few times the thing I buy skyrockets 20% in a week or 100% in a year and I want to sell but I never do.

I buy planning for long term but I think the math says I should get out of things that appreciate so fast because that growth is market hype and isn’t sustainable.

Makes sense. I'm unlikely to get hit by that since I am in index funds other than if there's a market-wide bubble.

craigster59 · craigster59's Garage

A new Fed Chair is coming in May 2026. This could be a start to lower interest rates and a shot in the arm for the RE market.

I gave up a 2.25% VA loan to downgrade and my VA rate is currently 6.125%. Borrowing a phrase from speeder if rates drop "I'll be all over it like a hobo on a ham sandwich".

The proposed ban on big biz staying out of single family home ownership is another consideration.

So, in a nutshell, "I've got nothing". Do what your gut tells you.

craigster59 · craigster59's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by LWJ

I own way too much of a highly volatile stock. It tanked in the last few months. But it will rocket back up some day soon as it is a great company. Yesterday it was painfully low and I told Mrs. LWJ that we should buy more or buy options. It is up $5 this am.

Summary: I have a position that I am highly familiar with but no. I don't do weird stuff with market timing.

That happened to me last week. A stock i have held since its IPO at $17 in 2010 and shot to $300 over a few years has been lingering at $130 for over a year. I was thinking of just cashing out and they had a buyout offer last Monday and it jumped 37%. Still holding on to it and see if the deal goes through.

red 928 · 02-26-2026, 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by masraum

The market has been going up like gang busters. I've always been a "buy and hold" kind of guy. Something in the back of my head keeps saying "take the money and run" (well, sell and put somewhere safe while waiting to buy back in on the next dip).

But that sounds like a bad idea when you don't know when the next dip will be. Like I said, buy and hold.

I've done it a few times, when I got the feeling of doom and gloom.
Then I bought it back when I got over it.
Overall, I'd say I come out ahead with that strategy nearly half the time

If you want to invest, then invest.
If you want to day trade, day trade.
But mixing the two up in some sort of Kreskin-Svengali hybrid is a fool's game.

onewhippedpuppy · 02-26-2026, 08:53 AM

Follow your gut, then don’t look back!

flatbutt · 02-26-2026, 08:58 AM

I just met with my FA. We don't try to time buy or sell in general. What I do is transfer chunks of earnings out of the higher risk holdings and put that into safer long term holdings.

masraum · 02-26-2026, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flatbutt

I just met with my FA. We don't try to time buy or sell in general. What I do is transfer chunks of earnings out of the higher risk holdings and put that into safer long term holdings.

What do you use for "safer long term holdings"?

flatbutt · 02-26-2026, 11:51 AM

My FA opened Insurance based holdings. My investment is guaranteed but I get to keep the earnings as well. So far they've done ok. Not a lot of earnings but low risk.

Evans, Marv · 02-26-2026, 01:30 PM

I'm waaay too conservative. Last time I did anything like timing the market was when the DOW went down to 19K. I put a chunk into my usual conservative fund and later got a 60% return. I could have put in three times as much, but I'm conservative.

onewhippedpuppy · 02-26-2026, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Evans, Marv

I'm waaay too conservative. Last time I did anything like timing the market was when the DOW went down to 19K. I put a chunk into my usual conservative fund and later got a 60% return. I could have put in three times as much, but I'm conservative.

Me too, I had a similar situation when the market crashed in 2021 due to CV lockdowns. Could have put in more and made more. Also would have been financially better off investing as opposed to paying off my house, but it helps me sleep better at night.