Stock Chat... What are you looking at?

[jyl]

Originally Posted by Arizona_928

Well, that’s just gold. Silver should go to at least 80 if not parabolic

What is driving, or will drive, silver? Central banks are not buying silver, AFAIK. Industrial uses are not tripling overnight. Purely speculation?

[jyl]

Originally Posted by gregpark

Silver will go a lot higher than 80. Most people think that metals are going up. Not so, it's the USD losing value. Depressing really. The value of the dollar has depreciated 88% since year 2000 and will continue to slide.

That 88% loss of USD value is simply cumulative inflation since 2000 (CPI inflation 2000-2025). That is average 2.6% annual inflation. A little higher than ideal, which would be more like 2%. 2% annual inflation is still 64% cumulative inflation over 25 years.

Any currency will inherently "lose value" over long periods, if inflation is above zero. Not depressing, just means money has to be put to work to earn a return.

On the other hand, gold price is up 1400% since 2000 (appx $266/ozt 10/2000 to $4212/ozt now). So I don't understand why you think the rise in gold price is simply the dollar depreciating. That is wrong. 1400% <> 88%. Unless I am misunderstanding you.

[gregpark]

Gold and silver are the only real money and have been for thousands of years. Every currency on the planet is counterfeit money because it's no longer based on anything tangible. I know it's hard for people to wrap their heads around this because the USD has been "real" money our whole adult lives. Before 1971 currencies were based on gold (and silver) and now we just create more dollars out of thin air to solve our problems (such as debt accrued). It's an unsustainable system...even according to both the head of the treasury and the Fed chairman. We're at the end of the fiat road, trust in the USD is evaporating rapidly around the world. Our US bonds are no longer desirable and our system relies on those loans. 100% of fiat currencies throughout history have eventually failed. Why would you think we're the exception?

[jyl]

Originally Posted by gregpark

Gold and silver are the only real money and have been for thousands of years. Every currency on the planet is counterfeit money because it's no longer based on anything tangible. I know it's hard for people to wrap their heads around this because the USD has been "real" money our whole adult lives. Before 1971 currencies were based on gold (and silver) and now we just create more dollars out of thin air to solve our problems (such as debt accrued). It's an unsustainable system...even according to both the head of the treasury and the Fed chairman. We're at the end of the fiat road, trust in the USD is evaporating rapidly around the world. Our US bonds are no longer desirable and our system relies on those loans. 100% of fiat currencies throughout history have eventually failed. Why would you think we're the exception?

I am a practical person and I am interested in making USD profits.

If you expect USD or UST to crash, then put on a trade to profit from it.

I understand the view that gold is such a trade. The problem is that gold will eventually peak and go down, while those who hold the view you described will still presumably hold that view, so plenty of them will ride gold down -50%.

Again, I'm not anti-gold. I bought gold in portfolios back in 2019, and bought it again in portfolios in 2024. I think it has certain investment uses.

[gregpark]

It's good that you're invested in gold but paper gold? If you can't hold it you don't own it. I would recommend to get yourself some physical and store it in a private, secure and insured depository (not a "safe" deposit box in a bank). Central banks both domestic and around the world have purchased more gold in the last few years than in the last 50 combined. That says something

[brp914]

My understanding is that recent rise in gold is driven by world central banks. By "recent" I mean the last few years. Central banks don't see themselves losing 50%.

edit, beat me to it Greg. I agree with converting GLD to physical. Atleast you don't have to pay cap gains on physical. De Santis signed into law making gold and silver legal tender. I haven't read much about it to know what exactly that means.

[jyl]

Physical gold? I don’t really expect to own gold for that long. It’s a trade, for me.

[gregpark]

48,000 oz? That's a load. Worth 2˝ M now and probably 10M soon.
The squeeze is on, people holding paper silver are demanding delivery of physical and there's just not enough above ground silver to meet demand

[Arizona_928]

It’s one heck of a retirement plan tbh.

[Cajundaddy]

It is always interesting to compare gold vs the broader US market as an investment on 5, 10, and 20 year periods to see how it fares. The main driver of a run on gold tends to be economic uncertainty (70s runaway inflation, 2008 great recession, 2020 covid pandemic, 2025 global tariffs). Currency inflation plays a role but is maybe only 10% of the driver in gold prices. Periods of high inflation and economic uncertainty tend to cause both gold and the US markets to rise at different rates. These charts break it down pretty well so we can invest with eyes wide open:

https://www.smarterwealth.co/learn/gold-vs-sp500

[gregpark]

Ha ha, thanks for that. I got a kick out of the conclusion:
"While gold was once tied to our currency and functioned as an essential medium of exchange, it (for better or worse) no longer holds that place in our economy’s heart. Due to that (and many other reasons), as our examination demonstrates, it probably shouldn’t have a place in your portfolio"

And the author lists the 3 types of people who benefit from gold: "miners, traders and people who sell shovels."
Made my morning!

[Arizona_928]

+1 ^^^

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by gregpark

Ha ha, thanks for that. I got a kick out of the conclusion:
"While gold was once tied to our currency and functioned as an essential medium of exchange, it (for better or worse) no longer holds that place in our economy’s heart. Due to that (and many other reasons), as our examination demonstrates, it probably shouldn’t have a place in your portfolio"

And the author lists the 3 types of people who benefit from gold: "miners, traders and people who sell shovels."
Made my morning!

So glad this could be your entertainment for the day. That you overlooked all of the comparative data and instead focused on one person's opinion is revealing.

[gregpark]

The data in that chart is a blink of an eye concerning the history of money. Precious metals were the only real money for 5,000 years. The USD has been the global basis for wealth for the last 80 and it's on it's last legs, it's had it's little run. Greed and the lust for power ruined it. The store of wealth is heading in a different direction now, backwards, and for good reason, money must be based on something tangible or it will fail. History has proved this over and over. It'll take a little time but it's inevitable. The guy who wrote that article will be glad he didn't sign his name to it.

[Arizona_928]

Fiat currency vs precious metals…

[cabmandone]

"Gold is up significantly in 2025, with a year-to-date gain of around 57-60% and reaching a record high over \$4,200 per ounce in mid-October."

"As of October 17, 2025, AMD stock is up over 93% year-to-date."

I own both. I like AMD better.

[cabmandone]

News has REE stocks down. Seems weird to me since it doesn't really seem to change the need to diversify and increase our mining and processing capability. Tech stocks keep rolling .

[Arizona_928]

Speculation at best. I don’t see China showing their cards this early.

[jyl]

I've been watching some forums on "critical minerals" stocks. The group got infested with YOLO FOMO get-rich-quick types, piled into the names at the top, now crying they're down -30% to -80% or soon to be -100% for the ones who used OOM calls. Needed a correction to blow them out. Getting one.

Rare earths remain a critical vulnerability for the West and a weapon for China. This rumored "deal" only involves a temporary reprieve on China's export controls. The recent record of trade deals between the US and China is bad, the deals don't last for more than a month or two.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by jyl

I've been watching some forums on "critical minerals" stocks. The group got infested with YOLO FOMO get-rich-quick types, piled into the names at the top, now crying they're down -30% to -80% or soon to be -100% for the ones who used OOM calls. Needed a correction to blow them out. Getting one.

Rare earths remain a critical vulnerability for the West and a weapon for China. This rumored "deal" only involves a temporary reprieve on China's export controls. The recent record of trade deals between the US and China is bad, the deals don't last for more than a month or two.

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. I don't understand why there's such movement over an announced "deal". I don't believe what's being discussed changes the direction we're moving in.