What Do You Think Will Happen With The German Automakers?
 

They are all hurting badly. Do you see a recovery, and how?

I thought about this when I was looking for news about BMW’s “Neue Klasse” cars, the sedan concept car having been so nice looking when it was teased a year ago. Then I thought, heck, if it comes into production, even if it’s a great car, it’ll probably cost $60,000. Or more.

The big problem IMO is cars built in China that offer everything for a lot less.

So... They'll adapt and change. They're not about to let decades of hard work go to waste.

---

Have you been inside a late model Mercedes lately? They're not what they used to be.

Volkswagen really needs to get their house in order - sales are so bad of the new ID. Buzz that it's not being offered for sale in the US next year (this shouldn't come as a surprise...).

While I haven't seen any in person the styling on some Chinese vehicles is quite nice, far better than what you might see on a BMW. And, as mentioned, they can sell them for much less.

It’s an interesting time for Cadillac to jump into F1. A sport dominated by European auto companies.

The 20 something crowd can’t afford to buy a house these days, let alone a luxury car made in Europe. Heck, many don’t even have drivers licenses anyway, The next few years will be interesting.

Unfortunately, I travel a lot. I’ve had some interesting rentals and rides in Ubers.

That BYD in Amsterdam this spring really stands out.

A decade or more ago the mantra was China can only duplicate, it can’t innovate. I don’t know the turning point but China can now engineer a better BMW than the Germans, based on a few articles I read/listened to over the summer/fall.

I was in a BYD hybrid SUV in Panama for quite a few hours several weeks ago. It was nice, but more Kia nice than Mercedes nice.

Like any other business the strong will survive and the weak will go away , either a slow death or bought out by someone . Supply and demand . And maybe car manufacturers will have to cut back on volume numbers/expectations. Maybe concentrate more on quality and a little less on volume .

Porsche used to be an exclusive brand , made in relatively low volume numbers . Today they make some nice vehicles but they have lost that exclusive branding by pumping out as many vehicles as possible . And quality has been an issue , the 986/996/987/997 bore scoring issues is just one example . That just shouldn't happen with an elite builder like Porsche . My 2 cents keep the change :D

Quality has always been an issue with Porsche. (My ‘88 Carrera needed valve guides at 80k miles). We put up with it when Porsche was a unique, quirky, and as you said, exclusive brand. It ain’t gonna fly in a mass produced consumer commodity.

VW has struggled to remain relevant in the US for as long as I've been alive. I was just telling my girlfriend the other day (shes 10 years younger than me) that VW had been teasing a new bus for around 25 years. The it comes to market as an ultra premium EV instead of an affordable people mover. Aside from some strong selling small SUVs they have nothing of interest any longer, not even the GTI.

It's a clash of many armies:
1. Manufacturers all trying to outdo each other on hp and luxury to retain their Brand Name status at the top of the pecking order.

2. Rising costs and rising shareholder expectations. Manufacturers making their vehicles more complex and market-capture the exclusive repair sector.

3. Like printers the real money is is in the ink. That is now customer surveillance and forced ads. Some people might not like that concept.

4. Consumers with stupid money are drying up. The economy is what it is. They had great jobs and leased a brand new car every three years. Then the dealership resold it on the used car market, sometimes using astroturf owners with a good story to flip it. Or they were okay with 30yr financing for a daily driver..the same price as a home... Not anymore.

5. Real quality is easily fakeable visually. And sometimes that is good enough. People are returning to the concept of "does it go?" with overall costs of ownership. Every manufacturer now has the cheap plastic interiors with different levels of insulation . High end or low. Heck even my 2004 Corolla had a nice 'brazillian rosewood' dash.

6. Startups and new manufacturers are cutting into the low and middle end. With comparable vehicles they will start to choose the cheaper one. Brand reputation has lost it's legacy when major manufacturers release stinkers and don't address the problems immediately.

7. Government regulations with enforcement such as CAFE and Safety are all over the board. The Toyota Prius was almost shut down for half a dozen 'runaway acceleration' incidents blamed on floor mats not hacking. Meanwhile Tesla's are running into things by the dozens every week and Waymo's are blocking city intersections with power outages. Manufactures are forced by CAFE to build larger vehicles because of wheelbase footprint alone. SUV's and pickups are insured less than an efficient hyper-miler econobox.

8. Everything but EV's are being banned, literally, but that model simply doesn't work with a lot of consumers. Still they are being forced into them and there is a backlash growing.

I recently took a trip to costa rica, and saw the change from 15, 10 and 5y ago...
That is a country where there always were a lot of european cars we don't even get but also asian brands we'd never heard of... The local gov't does not forbid or seem to restrict Chinese imports...

Today every other car is Chinese. The cheaper euro brands are essentially gone.. There are a few Audis, porsches, BMWs but that's it... the rest has been completely replaced by brands you never heard of. I stopped counting after 15 ! Brands that sometimes you cannot even read the name of, looks like pictograms. Chinese makers prefer creating new brands vs new models under each brand. It's like setting foot on an alien planet.. The net result is it's now absolutely undrivable in the capital because the Chinese cars are so much cheaper (actually decent too) that as a result the number of cars on the road feels like double what it was, gridlock everywhere.

Anyway that suggests to me the EU effed up to a colossal degree with their push to EV and even their recent backtracking on ICE is too little too late. They've handed their entire auto industry technical dominance to China, I know this is not a revelation to anyone but I've seen it 'live" last month and it's something else to see it in person. IMO the days of the giant (esp german) european car makers are gone and they will shrink, probably form alliances, and remain as boutique/luxury makers (i'd say sports cars but who knows), but Europe did it to themselves. There's a pretty big rebellious anti-EU trend in European countries at the moment, Brussels eurocrats are making rules for everything like a a sentient AI gone awry, and their decisions supersedes national ones, in essence those people were never elected directly by people whose life they affect but rule over everything.. (coupled with immigration problems there, I predict a sharp right turn in politics shortly). The stupidest example is France IMO, where you get hit by huge tax penalties based on weight and CO2 emission, a 911 or M5-like car gets 70,000 euros added tax, imagine that, doubling the price of a boxster for instance! Completely kills sales. That leaves you with expensive EVs and anemic 1.0L engines.. That's one market GONE for Germany for themost part they're only gonna sell Polos. Then the UK where there's a speed camera every 25 yards and congestion charges.. Europe seems to hate cars now, well European legislators anyway - I hope America stands as the last hope for us car people as long as possible!

Lots of perspective in the public domain.

Some general, some more specific.

For example, https://up.partners/movingworld/

Thank you, I will keep it in mind.

I noticed the same thing in Bangkok earlier this year.

I envision the high end European brands will stay around but be forced to stick to the high end boutique market and dramatically cut back on production.

China will take over the vast majority of the car market. The few electric Chinese cars I've ridden in were every bit as good as any low to mid range European or Japanese car and they can't compete with China on price without tariffs.

And if the world decides hybrids are the better way to go, I expect China will step up and fill that market too.

The two biggest factors affecting European production are their insanely crushing government regulation and having put all of their eggs in the EV basket. Government regulation not just regarding vehicle configuration, but manufacturing methods as well, almost entirely environmentally driven.

China has not hamstrung their manufacturing with the latter. As such, they are not on a level playing field. Those countries receiving imported Chinese automobiles (and other goods) need to start leveraging environmental (and other) regulations as a condition of import.

EU, UK, and our own environmental regulations are now squeezing fractions of a single percentile of improvement out of industry at a hugely disproportionate cost relative to the improvements realized. Meanwhile China and just a handful of major manufacturing countries contribute the vast majority of pollution in today's world. Impose on them the same environmental standards that we impose upon ourselves and the situation would change dramatically.

How long before private car ownership is largely shutdown and replaced with autonomous vehicles on a uber like service.

I remember when Seattle had some sort of a car share program. Can't remember what it was called. The woman who founded it sold it and went on to bigger and better things. I remember seeing an interview with her in one of the bigger car mags wherein she said she saw the day coming when a car would no longer be something available for private ownership, but rather only offered as a "service", at least in large cities.

That may be somewhat doable in urban areas.
My home is rural. Private, one-lane gravel road up a steep hillside.
How far in advance would I need to order a car before it arrives?
Can an autonomous car make it up a steep hill at night when covered in snow & ice?