Water issues in AZ a concern for buying?

[jhynesrockmtn]

My wife has been pushing to buy a vacation/retirement/snowbird place in one of the Dell Webb communities (or similar) near Phoenix. Sun City is the original one, then Sun City West, Grand, etc. My Mom has had a place in Surprise for a long time. She lives there October to April. We can't afford much, but prices are falling and a decent place can be had for the low $200k range. That starts to get more realistic. A buddy had the same thought and just spent 3 weeks down there looking. He came back and said "we're not buying due to the water issues".

How serious of a concern is it for those more educated than me? It sounds like the aquifer is losing water, land is sinking and developments have been put on hold. Please keep this out of PARF.

This is the AI summary for a google search in my Mom's area:

Surprise, Arizona, faces long-term water sustainability challenges driven by severe Colorado River shortages and a heavy reliance on finite groundwater. While the city reports a secure current supply through diverse sources, regional drought, declining lake levels, and rapid population growth necessitate strict, ongoing conservation and drought contingency planning to manage future water scarcity.

[3rd_gear_Ted]

Arizona will lose the most water from the Colorado river due to the lack of seniority of their water rights.
The little town of Ehrenberg AZ on the Colorado river has water rights back to 1865, Parker AZ was 1912. Imperial Valley farms of CA is from 1920's
The CAP system that taps into Lake Havasu and feeds water all the way to Tucson was originated in 1973.
1ST IN SENIORITY FIRST IN RIGHTS. Water is for fighting over, Whiskey is for drinking, the way of the west

[Rick Lee]

The water issue here is that the water quality sucks. It's as hard as rock. We have a citric filter in the garage, carbon filters on the sink and shower heads and Brita filter in the fridge. Mrs. Lee refuses to drink the tap water here and buys those huge jugs from Costco.

Water here is scandalously cheap already. So if/when things get bad, sure, it will get more expensive. But I think it'll be a while before a small house for two retirees racks up a painful water bill. If you have a 4k s/f house with three kids, a pool and lots of grass and landscaping, that'd be a different matter. That's not how most of the houses in Sun City are.

[jhynesrockmtn]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

The water issue here is that the water quality sucks. It's as hard as rock. We have a citric filter in the garage, carbon filters on the sink and shower heads and Brita filter in the fridge. Mrs. Lee refuses to drink the tap water here and buys those huge jugs from Costco.

Water here is scandalously cheap already. So if/when things get bad, sure, it will get more expensive. But I think it'll be a while before a small house for two retirees racks up a painful water bill. If you have a 4k s/f house with three kids, a pool and lots of grass and landscaping, that'd be a different matter. That's not how most of the houses in Sun City are.

Thanks. I'm not so concerned about water quality or bills, although I know that's a concern. It is long term property values and just lack of water availability at some point. Buy a house now for $200k, water availability becomes a bigger concern and 10 years from now the place is worth way less, or worst case scenario, is unusable. Is that just being paranoid??

[Rick Lee]

They've been saying that forever. I'm sure it will manifest itself someday, but probably not in our lifetimes. The only place I'm aware of that really had a crisis is Rio Verde, which was I think the unincorporated far reaches of northeast Scottsdale. They had no water source other than having it trucked in. And they built like crazy, large houses on large parcels with pools and horses, again, all water being delivered by truck. But everyone knew that was going to implode one day. Sun City is really a world away. I think water supply there will be fine for a long time, but I don't work in the water business.

[Zeke]

I'll never believe that real estate prices are going to be a bad investment in AZ. CA will see to that. If prices do fall it will be everywhere, not just AZ.

If you have the time you might read on Southern CA Water Negotiations This could have an impact on RE prices this year. I couldn't whether to jump in ahead of any decisions or to wait until the chips fall.

Of course water is a big issue in a much bigger picture. As they say, YMMV.

[KNS]

I lived in Arizona for about 25 years so it's something that I looked at closely over time.

It will become (is becoming) a serious issue for the lower basin of the Colorado River (CA, NV, AZ). Lake Mead and Lake Powell are currently around one third and one quarter full, respectively and the lake levels are continuing to drop. The reservoirs are shaped like a martini glass so the lower they get, the faster the level drops. Towards the end of 2026 is when the lower basin states are going to have a water reckoning.

For an eye opening scenario - Google "What happens if Lake Mead hits Dead Pool?". That's when water no longer flows through the dam because the level is too low. Will that ever happen - probably not because the states will pull out all the stops to keep it from happening. Arizona farmers are going to take (are already taking) the first hit by having their allotment cut back. It will get much worse for them. Water for everyone will get more expensive and builders will be told they can't build homes in certain areas (that's already happened). It could get ugly - look what happened in Rio Verde and their water supply.

The problem is simply that less Colorado river water is reaching Lake Powell and Lake Mead. They're saying Lake Powell could reach minimum "power pool" by the end of 2027. That's when there's not enough water to flow through the turbines.

A head scratcher is Arizona allowing so many new data centers which require large amounts or water for cooling.

[craigster59]

I just moved to Az from California. The difference in cost of living was akin to getting a 50% raise on your income.

They are raising our water rates 25% this year. This is to fund infrastructure (drill 6 new wells and add a new waste treatment plant). It will add approximately $35 to my water bill which also covers trash pickup.

We have a 1900 sq ft house with 13k gallon pool. Our bill will be approximately $200 a month.

[LWJ]

100% a concern.

I did not consider AZ due to this.

An interesting data point. My wife met a woman who is well placed in the US Bureau of Reclamation. They deal with water and agriculture. The conversation went to water scarcity and the woman tells my wife that there are only three areas in the US with good forecasts for future water: PNW, parts of Tennessee, and parts of the NE.

[gacook]

Originally Posted by Zeke

I'll never believe that real estate prices are going to be a bad investment in AZ. CA will see to that. If prices do fall it will be everywhere, not just AZ.

If you have the time you might read on Southern CA Water Negotiations This could have an impact on RE prices this year. I couldn't whether to jump in ahead of any decisions or to wait until the chips fall.

Of course water is a big issue in a much bigger picture. As they say, YMMV.

Wife just read an article about 2 days ago that stated home prices are dropping faster in Phoenix than anywhere else in the country.

[gacook]

Originally Posted by craigster59

I just moved to Az from California. The difference in cost of living was akin to getting a 50% raise on your income.

They are raising our water rates 25% this year. This is to fund infrastructure (drill 6 new wells and add a new waste treatment plant). It will add approximately $35 to my water bill which also covers trash pickup.

We have a 1900 sq ft house with 13k gallon pool. Our bill will be approximately $200 a month.

$200/month?? Wow, didn't realize the PHX area's water was so much more expensive...down further southeast (Sierra Vista area), my water bill rarely goes over $50/month. We have no water issues, though...huge underground aquifer here.

[Rick Lee]

Originally Posted by gacook

Wife just read an article about 2 days ago that stated home prices are dropping faster in Phoenix than anywhere else in the country.

They were very inflated for a while. So a correction was due.

Our water bill is $67-70/mo and I think $30 of that is for garbage pickup. We have a 10k gal. pool and Mrs. Lee does not drink tap water.

[E Sully]

I looked at this when my wife's niece and family moved to Scottsdale in September. Some of the suburbs were cut off from the supply. There are quite a few homes in certain areas that have storage tanks and water trucked in.
His boss made him a great offer to work there, but they are renting and don't expect to stay long term.
https://youtu.be/tj60vN1wp_c?si=INCenZZXRjWE4c9D

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by gacook

$200/month?? Wow, didn't realize the PHX area's water was so much more expensive...down further southeast (Sierra Vista area), my water bill rarely goes over $50/month. We have no water issues, though...huge underground aquifer here.

We don't have water quantity issues here in Ohio, but our monthly bill was around $100 a month. We used about 4000 gallons a month.

[Arizona_928]

I would not drink any public water supply. period.

My well in N. AZ is still being litigated on due to water rights. I have them but they want them back.

As for the valley, parabolic increase of electricity rates and other utilities are going to be the driving factor for affordability. Plain and simple, pensioners are being driven out.

[Rtrorkt]

the phoenix metro has 4 primary sources of water; Colorado River, Salt River. Aqua Fria River and a very large aquifer. Interesting statistic, Phoenix uses the same amount of water today as in the 1950's. The local Native Reservations hold vast aquifer rights.

Looking at a map, Pyramid, Roosevelt, Horseshoe and Pleasant are all reservoir lakes feeding the area. All are fed from the Aqua Fria, Verde and Salt Rivers. Phoenix metro area is trying to signiificantly lessen dependence on the Colorado.

In southern and western AZ agribusiness is pumping vast amounts of water and it is becoming an issue for local farmers and residents in Benson, Salome, etc.

My sense is the local utiities are trying to manage within the sources they have. I have lived in the Phoenix metro for over 13 years and have yet to see any panic around water.

[KNS]

"Arizona’s Cheap Water Supply Is Drying Up—and It Could Hit Affordability Hard"

From realtor.com:

https://www.realtor.com/advice/buy/arizona-water-crisis-housing-affordability/

[Danimal16]

Originally Posted by Arizona_928

As for the valley, parabolic increase of electricity rates and other utilities are going to be the driving factor for affordability. Plain and simple, pensioners are being driven out.

This. When there is no longer viable off-peak electrical rates for treating and pumping operations, the cost of all wet utilities will go up. Electric car demand has contributed to this in California. The demand for off-peak electrical supply and the scarcity of supply is a double whammy. Water and wastewater rates are hand in hand with energy.

[Zeke]

Originally Posted by gacook

Wife just read an article about 2 days ago that stated home prices are dropping faster in Phoenix than anywhere else in the country.

Depends on the source. You make a good point and I see that prices are taking a hit in FL, TX, and CA as well as AZ, reported by Redfin.

[Rtrorkt]

potentially parts of Phoenix. In Scottsdale full price offers are still the norm