Anyone trying to get in on the Space X IPO?

[911_Dude]

Up to 30% of the IPO is being offered up to "retail" investors. Thats a lot more than normal, and a lot in terms of $$$. And if you can get it, its my understanding that you get it at the same price as institutional investors (besides the early ones that already bought in). Im interested, but Ive never bought an IPO. And Im not a big fan of Musk, but he makes money for his shareholders. And as a Starlink user, its an amazing product with essentially zero competition for now. Although it would appear that Starlink is the cash cow for the SpaceX and AI portions of the combined company.

Thoughts?

[Rot 911]

Just saw a short article that mentioned the IPO for SpaceX may be the highest opening of any IPO in history. Which probably counts me out.

[mgatepi]

I signed up on Schwab’s for notifications, doubt that I will get any

[LWJ]

I gave specific and absolute orders to a financial advisor I work with: "I don't want anything to do with that POS."

I fully expect it will go up. I am 100% convinced that there are oily shenanigans surrounding this and refuse to participate in something I know is BS.

[sc_rufctr]

It's an investment. Use your own judgement. Musk's politics shouldn't be a factor.

[917_Langheck]

Highly recommend researching what you are buying there.

[Paul T]

I would personally stay far away from this one. The fact that a much larger than normal % is being offered to the general public is a tell - you are the exit liquidity for insiders. The valuations for this are VERY lofty. They will need to generate something like 12% annually compounded growth rates for the next 20+ years to justify, IIRC. Could happen (see: apple, msft, etc.) but far from a guarantee, or even likely IMO. That said, Elon’s businesses don’t really trade on fundamentals, they trade on hope.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Hope and hype, been that way with Tesla for years. SpaceX has accomplished some remarkable things but from a government customer perspective they absolutely SUCK to work with on Starlink. They are leaving a big open door for Amazon LEO, who are coming after Starlink with an equal or better than product and the promise of superior customer service.

To answer the original question, no I think they are overvalued and don’t have much extra money to play with anyway.

[onewhippedpuppy]

I do think this is a cool story though. Apparently SpaceX is fairly generous in their giving and selling of stock to employees. That has many long time employees, from baristas to mechanics to engineers, poised to become very very rich off of this IPO. Good to see a story where the normal guy gets ahead.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/meet-the-spacex-employees-who-are-about-to-become-overnight-millionaires/ar-AA24UqSV

[Paul T]

^^ awesome to see employees getting taken care of!

[crustychief]

I reserved 15 shares just to see what it will do.

[berettafan]

Originally Posted by Paul T

l - you are the exit liquidity for insiders. .

sounds right to me. I think this is a worthy caution.

[911_Dude]

I was skimming the prospectus. Its actually called Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) and consists of SpaceX, Starlink and their AI division. Of the three, Starlink and SpaceX, they have little to no competition. And although competition may be on the horizon, they are already a decade ahead in development. Anyway, a solid lead from competition. The AI division I have less faith in. I think AI is useful, but I think its going to hit a wall with the cost and energy demand, and very little if any payback. Could just be a money pit for the rest of the company. At least for the near term. The main detractor for me is that Musk retains solid control of the new corporation, and the only thing I trust about him is his ability to make money.

As for valuation, with the invention of crypto and the insane value put on absolutely nothing, I feel like value, in the classic investor sense, is almost irrelevant in some situations these days.

I think the 30% offering to the general public (thats a lot) is a result of the shear size of the IPO. It dwarfs the ARAMCO IPO, and that was considered huge. Im still on my first coffee, and I cant remember the exact numbers, but it was something like 10B for ARAMCO and 75B for SPCX. I dont think the banks are making the large public retail offer out of the goodness of their hearts, I think they just need investors.

Anyway, Im going to try to get in line to get some of this and see what happens.

[Alan A]

https://x.com/focusedcompound/status/2062273341407256791?s=46

[wildthing]

Wait a few quarters after to see how it shakes out then decide.

[Randolph]

Wait for a Rivian-like dip.

[zakthor]

Ill own it if it makes it on the sp500. Im about as excited for it as i am for nfts.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Wait for a Rivian-like dip.

I think Rivian is struggling to stay solvent. I don’t foresee that issue for SpaceX.

[Randolph]

Rivian's current financial health has nothing to do with a Rivian-like dip in share price.

IPO price $78, November 2021

End of January 2022 it's at $57

This will most likely happen with SpaceX too.

[Paul T]

Good write up here for anyone interested...

https://aswathdamodaran.substack.com/p/revisiting-the-spacex-valuation-a