The Future Ain't Too Bright

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11B people on the planet by 2050 isw stretching the resources on the planet to the limits. Clean air, water, energy and food production will all become in short supply. Some combination of events will cause die offs of humans to more sustainable levels.

Population levels are not increaing in the Industrialized world except through immigration/migration from lesser developed countries. It is the 2nd and 3rd worlds that will put the strain on both the economy and environment as they struggle to become developed.

[Zef]

Originally Posted by legion

I'm of the opinion that there is no real replacement for petroleum. I think that after we run out of oil, we will encounter another dark age.

I foresee the population of the planet dropping dramatically, perhaps to 1/100th or 1/1000th of what it is today. Society as we know it will collapse. For a time, communities and countries will be isolated.

There are several reasons for this.

First of all, crop yields right now are at all-time highs because of mechanized harvests and crude-based fertilizers. Take those away, and we will see yields closer to what we saw at the end of the 19th century.

Second, many people in the "first world" have no idea how to survive if their food doesn't come from the grocery store. Our lives of convenience have made us ignorant of the most basic survival skills. I cite as an example the number of people who are grossed out by watching an animal be slaughtered. Three or four generations ago, it was probably a skill everyone had to learn.

I don't see "alternative energy" as replacing petroleum. At best, it will just supplement it for a while. Fact is, that all of the alternatives combined can't replace what petroleum produces.

When do I see this happening? Several hundred years in the future. I think we have plenty of oil to last us centuries. Sure, the easy-to-get light, sweet crude is running out, but there are still the tar sands in Canada and other, larger sources that are tough to extract.

Never tought to change you nickname....Nostradamus is a good one...!

[tabs]

And here is proof...

Gut superbug causing more illnesses, deaths
By MIKE STOBBE, AP Medical Writer - Wed May 28, 4:03 PM PDTProvided by:

86% of users found this article helpful.ATLANTA - The number of people hospitalized with a dangerous intestinal superbug has been growing by more than 10,000 cases a year, according to a new study.

The germ, resistant to some antibiotics, has become a regular menace in hospitals and nursing homes. The study found it played a role in nearly 300,000 hospitalizations in 2005, more than double the number in 2000.

The infection, Clostridium difficile, is found in the colon and can cause diarrhea and a more serious intestinal condition known as colitis. It is spread by spores in feces. But the spores are difficult to kill with most conventional household cleaners or antibacterial soap.

C-diff, as it's known, has grown resistant to certain antibiotics that work against other colon bacteria. The result: When patients take those antibiotics, competing bacteria die off and C-diff explodes.

This virulent strain of C-diff was rarely seen before 2000.

"The nature of this infection is changing. It's more severe," said Dr. L. Clifford McDonald, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expert who was not part of the study.

There are other factors that play into the rise of C-diff cases as well, including a larger of number of patients who are older and sicker. "And there may be some overuse and inappropriate use of antibiotics," said Dr. Marya Zilberberg, a University of Massachusetts researcher and lead author of the study.

The Zilberberg study was based on a sample of more than 36 million annual discharges from non-governmental U.S. hospitals. That data was used to generate the study's national estimates.

The research is being published in the June issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases, a CDC publication.

Using other scientists' estimates, the study concluded that 2.3 percent of the cases in 2004 were fatal — about 5,500 deaths. That was nearly double the percentage of C-diff-related cases that ended in death in 2000.

Many of the people who died had other health problems. The study did not try to determine if Clostridium difficile was the main cause of death in each case, Zilberberg said.

But earlier research concluded the infection is the underlying cause of thousands of deaths annually, and the problem is getting worse.

C-diff has become an acute health concern in Canada, where it was blamed for 260 deaths at seven Ontario hospitals recently, and 2,000 deaths in Quebec since 2002.

The Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology is currently working with U.S. hospitals to study prevalence of the infection and what infection control measures seem to work best.

"This is not a time for alarm, but more a time for educating health professionals to understand this particular pathogen," said Kathy Warye, chief executive of the Washington, D.C.-based association.

[Mule]

Originally Posted by jyl

The Brazilian "Tupi" and "Jupiter" fields, combined, are by far the biggest discovery of oil in the last 30 years. Bigger that Khazakstan.

They are thought to hold appx 16BN barrels of recoverable oil and gas. I don't know how much oil vs how much gas, suppose it is all oil.

Brazil consumes appx 0.77BN barrels/yr of oil. So, fine, that is two decades of oil "independence" for Brazil.

But Brazil isn't the US. The US consumes appx 10X more - 8BN barrels of oil each year.

So these huge fields - combined, the biggest new discovery in 3 decades - amount to 2 years' oil consumption for the US.

By the way, global proven oil reserves are about 1.3TR barrels. So the Tupi/Jupiter fields have increased global reserves by about 1%. Not a lot.

And the world currently consumes roughly 32BN barrels/yr. As I said earlier, divide 1.3TR by 32BN and you get 40 years. And the Tupi/Jupiter fields have maybe added 6 months to that. Hmm.

Think about it. The biggest discoveries in the last 30 years, and they only amount to 6 months of world oil consumption.

Unless you think Tupi/Jupiter-size discoveries are going to start popping up like dandelions, it is silly to think that more oil exploration is the long-term answer.

My point here is, our democrat controlled congress has outlawed exploration in the Atlantic, Pacific & Eastern GOM. We wont produce from Anwar, we're not pursuing coal to oil, all because Algore says manbearpig is coming. Is it just me or is this insane?

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by jyl

And consumption will grow, for many years to come. The economic development of China, India, and other emerging countries practically guarantees it.

But we really need to get committed to it, because it will be a long road. Better to make good solid progress before oil is $150, $200, $300, etc rather than waiting until then to get serious.

I am not convinced that China and India will grow at the current pace...their economies are wholly dependent on oil for the cheap manufacture of goods and the transporation of end items to the world market. The price of their goods will increase just as many consumers are altering their spending habits due to the higher price of gas, heating oil, foods, etc.

No economy, except those that produce oil in surplus, is immune.

Your last comment is spot on...that is change I can believe in

[Rot 911]

I agree with Seahawk, China and India can't afford to keep subsidizing their growth if oil prices keep rising. Their economies will have to slow.

Don't forget the U.S. has HUGE reserves of coal. Easily enough to run the power plants that use oil and NG right now.

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by Mule

Thus sayeth the lord, Algore!

don't be such a dumbass Mule

Nasty C diff has been around since waaay before 2000 tabsie

Wayne, you are one of the people who should be having more kids, intelligent, employed and able to support them yourself.

We will run out of clean water long before the oil is gone

[Hawktel]

I doubt we will ever run out of oil, like others have said it will just get too expensive to produce.

More likely, I think our continued population pressure on this planet means you will see social breakdown, plague, and wars. Most likely a combination of all three.

In the long run, a lot of people don't understand the Jungle isn't that far away.

[The Gaijin]

Remember those old movies where the ranch boss/sergeant/mob boss whould smack a greenhorn/private/gangster and shake him by the collar??