Do you believe in luck?

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

I will say that I truly believe my life has been blessed. So many things that could have gone wrong didn't.
I was born with certain gifts or talents, but in other ways less so (people skilz fer zample )
So many times things have worked out better than I expected, much better than they really should have.
You can call it luck if we want to, but for me there is no doubt.

What have you done with our Sammy, Mr. "Sammyg2?" We aren't paying any ransom, so you may as well save the groceries and go ahead and kill him.

[Chocaholic]

The harder you work, the luckier you get.



I believe that.

[Tobra]

I am with Mike and Hal

Originally Posted by Halm

Yes I do believe in luck: The harder you work, the luckier you get.

This seems to be the general trend to me.

I was very fortunate in my choice of parents. They have always been very supportive. I am blessed with good genes, which is really just dumb luck. When, where and to whom you were born is luck. Once you are here, how you do is up to you.


Sam, lack of people skills? Perish the thought.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

So has no one here experienced long term, consistent luck specific to a unique portion of their lives?

[tweezers74]

Interesting question. I think it is perception. Some people think I am lucky but I think it is because of hard work and the people I choose to surround myself with. I have met some people where I think they have so many things to be thankful for and I would deem as "lucky" but they don't see it. So to them, their life and world is "ho hum" while mine is full of adventure and luck. And to tell you honestly, I think my perception of the world brings me even more luck. You get what you put out there... Karma.

[Chocaholic]

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa

So has no one here experienced long term, consistent luck specific to a unique portion of their lives?

I seem to have luck avoiding the purchase of automobiles that are not as they appear!

Thanks again Shaun...and Mark!

[sc_rufctr]

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa

So has no one here experienced long term, consistent luck specific to a unique portion of their lives?

I've been very blessed the last 12 years. As soon as I got divorced things started to change for the better.
It's not about my ex or our marriage. It's about my kids and what happened to me after she left.

It's a really long story but basically any decision I made turned out to be a good one and I made a lot of big ones.

Was it luck or Gods intervention? I don't think I'll ever know for sure but during this time I witnessed a real miracle. That miracle changed me forever.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

I seem to have luck avoiding the purchase of automobiles that are not as they appear!

Thanks again Shaun...and Mark!

Mike, did I tell you one of the great benefits of that excursion, other than having fun with Mark of course, was breakfast at a local diner with the best corned beef hash I've ever had.

It was a lucky day for all of us! and I hope your luck continues with the 560.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by sc_rufctr

I've been very blessed the last 12 years. As soon as I got divorced things started to change for the better.
It's not about my ex or our marriage. It's about my kids and what happened to me after she left.

It's a really long story but basically any decision I made turned out to be a good one and I made a lot of big ones.

Was it luck or Gods intervention? I don't think I'll ever know for sure but during this time I witnessed a real miracle. That miracle changed me forever.

This may be what I originally posted about.

Interest is piqued.

We've got time.

Details?

[Chocaholic]

Getting out of a bad marriage isn't luck....it's smart. Luck is the by-product of making good decisions. Not as easy to do as it may seem, but appears that Peter has made some good ones. If you use common sense and hard work with a focus on honesty, ethics, logic and the success of others, luck will come.

[jyl]

That is hard to answer.

I have had periods when everything of significance went well - made plenty of money, got promoted again and again, met a beautiful woman and married her, health great - one might have said I had a charmed existence.

But how much did "luck" have to do with it. Money - I was in a good profession that was on the upswing. Promotions - I was working hard and talented and well-liked in a successful firm. Beautiful woman - mutual attraction is a mysterious thing but I think it is something other than luck, there is personality and judgment and seizing of opportunity involved. Health - well I was <30 y/o so good health would have been expected.

You see - yes, things went well, but those things were not the sort of discrete, random chance events that fit my, and I think the accepted, definition of "luck".

Maybe that is the crux of it. Are we taking literally about "luck"? Or are we talking about good decisions and being well-positioned and well-prepared and alert to opportunity and having the right timing and all of those things coming together in a wonderful string of good fortune?

By the way, I have also had periods where exactly the reverse of the above has happened, excepting the beautiful woman - she has never left me - and there again the causes were not that coins kept flipping the wrong way, but rather more fundamental, non-random reasons.

I think a lot about luck, actually. The area in my life where luck is seemingly most involved is my job. I work in the stock market. Many people consider the stock market a big casino. There's academic research to that effect. In the business we even talk about "making bets". So some would say my profession is primarily about luck. I agree there are a lot of events that, at a certain level, look like purely random chance. Does company A's earnings report beat or miss consensus estimates? Is it simply a coin flip? Clearly not - the night before, the company doesn't flip a coin to decide if they're going to beat or miss. The outcome was determined months or quarters ago. It has fundamental causes - the economy, the industry conditions, input prices, demand for the company's products, management decisions, analysts' views on these things, etc. If you had enough data on these things, and could analyze it accurately, you could perfectly predict the outcome. In the real world, you have sometimes more data, sometimes less data and sometimes good analytical ability, sometimes not so good, so your ability to predict is sometimes good and sometimes bad. But you don't have to swing at every ball or, in the language of the casino, you don't have to bet every hand. You can bet only when you judge that your ability to predict is good enough. If you do that, you can have the probabilities in your favor. Let's suppose you choose your bets such that the probability of winning is 55%. Over time, assuming a large enough number of bets are played - investments are made - you should make money 55% of the time and lose 45% of the time. If you can do that, you're successful, in my business. I would argue that "luck" is not the cause. If you are making only 50% probability bets, but still were successful over time, then you've indeed enjoyed a long string of "luck". But if you are making 55% probability bets, then success over time is what you should expect.

To me, luck is not probability. Luck is when the results, over repeated instances, is consistently better than the probability inherent in the situation (good luck) or worse (bad luck).

Sorry to ramble.

P.S. I was explaining to my daughter what I do all day. I explained that if I can be wrong only 45% of the time, I'm pretty happy. She was not very impressed.

So has no one here experienced long term, consistent luck specific to a unique portion of their lives?

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Great ramble John, will post more later, busy day printing up Fall 13 shirts.

Originally Posted by jyl

Maybe that is the crux of it. Are we taking literally about "luck"?

Yes, I am talking about pure luck, but in a continuous, data point you can graph, sense.

Originally Posted by jyl

Or are we talking about good decisions and being well-positioned and well-prepared and alert to opportunity and having the right timing and all of those things coming together in a wonderful string of good fortune?

That's what many here are talking about. I don't call that luck, it's just being smart and in tune with the world around you.

[cornemuse]

Yeah, bad luck. If I didnt have bad luck, I wouldnt have any luck at all.

-corne-

[LeeH]

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa

That's what many here are talking about. I don't call that luck, it's just being smart and in tune with the world around you.

Short of flipping coins or buying lottery tickets, it seems that all other situations are going to be heavily influenced by our choices.

I find amazing things at my local Goodwill. Luck? No, I've learned when they put out new stuff and show up at those times just about every day.

My wife and I never get sick. Luck? No, we eat a very healthy diet and exercise.

What situations in life occur that ONLY involve luck?

[Seahawk]

The underlying aspect of luck, providence, happenstance, karma, fortunato (all languages account for "luck") is awareness, the capability to recognize opportunity and act on it.

Every lucky person I know loves what they do, enjoys the content of their life and works hard even after a failed step.

But, then again, some of the best humans I have ever know where killed by what in aviation are called, "golden BB's". Dead is dead, however, even after the crying and lamenting.

Best to do your best, understand the randomness of life and be true to those you love, those that love you...have standards and live by them.

"Luck" is beating the odds, "being lucky" is overcoming odds.

[Hugh R]

Success finds a way; failure finds an excuse.