China and its elderly
 

https://www.oecd.org/employment/leed/OECD-China-report-Final.pdf

Something that's been developing for a long time now, and more rapidly than predicted.

China is getting old very fast, and it hasn't yet gotten rich.

In a couple decades, there will be only four working age Chinese for every two elderly Chinese and every one Chinese child.

Demography will tend to reduce China's economic growth and current account surplus.

In 2040, imagine that China is experiencing economic growth not much greater than inflation, running a current account deficit, and is as centrally controlled as it is now.

Does it make sense that the Chinese government will choose to divert a very large percent of GDP to elder care, housing, medical services, support?

Why should it? The elderly won't be a voting bloc. Old people tend not to be violent protestors.

How will China care for the 25-30% of its population who will then be over 65 y/o?

China has a long history of revolutions. Another one is coming, but as to when is anyone's guess.

Centrally controlled governments eventually fail to adequately respond to pressure and therefore lose support for their authority.

They'll take care of them the same way they've been taking care of the old and young for thousands of years. Generations will live with or near each other. Grandparents will help take care of the grandchildren while they're young and the parents will take care of the grandparents when they're old. Also, Even a working class Chinese family can affotd a live-in housekeeper/cook from the countryside. China's Achilles heel -its population - is also a safety valve in this regard. They have an unending supply of low wage unskilled workers who can perform what we would call home health care services at minimal cost to society. There won't be much need for the government to divert resources into caring for the elderly. But the issue of loss of economic performance because of the demographic change is a real issue. It will be a drag on their economy for a hundred years.

There is still a lot of family support in Chinese families from what I witness. I have seen prosperous US Chinese return when it is time to take care of their parents in the homeland.

That said, maybe they go the Japanese model in the long run and have service robots. In 20 years, you can expect a household robot that can do most of your chores.

G

Then there is the basket and the river to solve the elderly problem.

Two words...

Soylent Green

This SmileWavy

You are thinking like a round eye.

Their culture does not abandon their elders.

We're in a similar situation with the Baby Boomers retiring - millions of people outnumbering those who can pay for their care by 10-to-1. Granted the USA doesn't have the population of China but our elderly population has MUCH higher expectations (with associated per capita costs).

OK, Matrix then.

the generation that drowned their daughters in buckets because of the one child policy is now seriously expecting to be care for in their old age by the surviving kids?

that's how it works here. in Vancouver. they take care of their extended family.
that's a plain and simple fact. almost zero exceptions.

Interesting tradition. Very recently I rode on a bus in Beijing and I had a conversation with a young professional man about this very topic. He said he and many friends are not planning on ever marrying for this very reason. He went through the whole traditional way and then listed all the folks that would likely be depending on him. It is a lot of people for 1 or 2 to take on. Urban China is very much a consumer economy and all the toys that go with it don't fit in with the old ways.

If that's true China will be in worse shape than imagined. They're now trying to persuade folks to have more than one child and some are instead choosing to not have any at all..?

A nation's central banking depends on the ability of that country's economy to put working age people into a productive, taxable, job.

That is why America has been considered a safe credit risk, given our economy and culture, and legal system, etc.

That is because credit is based on future earning potential. When the birth rate can't keep up with the mortality rate, there is a contraction in that nation's ability to not only produce tax revenue, but future earning potential, and therefore credit, also declines.

There was a great column by "Spengler" in the Asia Times about this. I'll see if I can find it.

Fräulein Merkel's Germany has solved its aging demo problem quite handily.

Definitely a reccurent event. If & when it does come to pass, the repercussions will most likely have some global impact (to varying degrees). To the OP's question, it will be interesting to see what China's plans will be to address the situation.

Cheers
JB

China has been drowning girl babies for centuries. The only child families of recent generations impose the obligation of caring for the elderly on the one child. As the kid is growing up he gets showered with attention because he's likely to be the only grandkid for both sets of grandparents as well as the only child. There's even a term for it in China, that translates roughly as "Little Emperor". But as he grows up, he's expected to care for the older generation. Typically the families will live with each other or maybe in the same building. Often they hire a peasant from the countryside to be a live-in maid.

Another issue China has to deal with is that it now has many more marriageable men than women. In recent decades there have been about 118 boy babies born for every girl baby. A lot of Chinese men are never going to have a girlfriend, let alone marry. In the US, there are more professional single women than men, so maybe someday mail order husbands from China will become a thing, or maybe successful Chinese men will purchase US mail order brides.

They're relaxed the one-child policy, so there will be more working-age adults in 20 yrs. to care for their folks than there are now. I got to visit both of Mrs. Lee's grandmothers in their nursing homes a few times. One was a Long March vet and high-ranking official, so she had a relatively comfortable pension and existance in old age. The other was nearly blind and just could not be cared for by relatives, no matter how much they wanted to. But their old folks homes were near their kids, so visits were very frequent.

Rich men in China will never have a problem getting a bride. It may not be a soulmate situation, but they will get all the women they want. The ones who will never marry will be the peasants who migrate to the cities for the far better life of working in a factory for subsistance wages.