Auction results

[speedster911]

Gooding * * * 2015 * 2018 * Delta 15-18 * 2019 * Delta 18-19
Sales * * * $46m *$44m *Down 5% * $44m * Unchanged
No Sales1 * * * $11m *$24m *Up 116% * $13m * Down 47%
Avg Sale * * * $408k *$408k * * $412k * *
Avg No Sale * * *$945k *$1.29m * * * $725k * *
CBA Ratio2 * * * 235% * 315% * * * 176% * *
*
RM * * 2015 * 2018 * Delta 15-18 * 2019 * Delta 18-19
Sales * * $54m * $32m * Down 40% * $33m * Up 1%
No Sales1 * * $16m * $17m * Up 5% * $26m * Up 51%
Avg Sale * * $533k * $289k * * * $256K * *
Avg No Sale * * $866k * $1.1m * * * $1m * *
CBA Ratio2 * * 162% * 350% * * * 408% * *
*
Bonhams * * 2015 * 2018 * Delta 15-18 * 2019 * Delta 18-19
Sales * * $23m $23m *Unchanged * $14m * Down 38%
No Sales1 * * none * $6m * Up $6m * $13m * Up 116%
Avg Sale * * $295k * $244k * * * $138k * *
Avg No Sale * * n/a * $514k * * * $1.1m * *
CBA Ratio2 * * n/a * 213% * * * 803% *

[robertmark]

Originally Posted by speedster911

Gooding * * * 2015 * 2018 * Delta 15-18 * 2019 * Delta 18-19
Sales * * * $46m *$44m *Down 5% * $44m * Unchanged
No Sales1 * * * $11m *$24m *Up 116% * $13m * Down 47%
Avg Sale * * * $408k *$408k * * $412k * *
Avg No Sale * * *$945k *$1.29m * * * $725k * *
CBA Ratio2 * * * 235% * 315% * * * 176% * *
*
RM * * 2015 * 2018 * Delta 15-18 * 2019 * Delta 18-19
Sales * * $54m * $32m * Down 40% * $33m * Up 1%
No Sales1 * * $16m * $17m * Up 5% * $26m * Up 51%
Avg Sale * * $533k * $289k * * * $256K * *
Avg No Sale * * $866k * $1.1m * * * $1m * *
CBA Ratio2 * * 162% * 350% * * * 408% * *
*
Bonhams * * 2015 * 2018 * Delta 15-18 * 2019 * Delta 18-19
Sales * * $23m $23m *Unchanged * $14m * Down 38%
No Sales1 * * none * $6m * Up $6m * $13m * Up 116%
Avg Sale * * $295k * $244k * * * $138k * *
Avg No Sale * * n/a * $514k * * * $1.1m * *
CBA Ratio2 * * n/a * 213% * * * 803% *

If they offered options contracts on Porsche sales, your numbers would indicate it is a good time to buy some Puts!!!

[JMS935]

Originally Posted by robertmark

If they offered options contracts on Porsche sales, your numbers would indicate it is a good time to buy some Puts!!!

Wouldn’t that be nice to trade.

In theory...I’d love to actually sell some puts against my Porsche collection. That might sound counterintuitive, but if they expire worthless I am making money, and if they’re in the money, we’ll then I get ‘put’ the car at a much lower price. Those are both wins if you want to buy more on the if come of further downside in the market.

[trader220]

Shorting puts to buy the underlying is okay but more often than not you'd have done better buy just stepping in and buying the underlying at some point before expiration. Or the options you sold go out worthless but they were so far out of the money you're picking up dimes in front of a potential steamroller. The options markets are pretty efficient these days and pricing is pretty damm good.

Typically what happens is this....Underlying is at 100 and you can only sell the 90 put for a coupe bucks, its not really worth while if the underlying is trading at 80 when your put gets assigned. 90 strike less the couple bucks you took in to sell the put is still more than the 80 where you could have bought the underlying at expiration, or over the life of the contract. It's a crude example but you get the point.

Derivatives on the car market would be nirvana for me.

I'd sooner buy some long term winger calls for a cheap shot. Anyone want to make me an OTC market?

[JMS935]

That was all in theory of course. I’m a former options trader too, so I get it. If prices explode I wouldn’t be a buyer up there, I’d more likely be liquidating most of my collection. Thus my preference to sell the down side and just buy more if it gets “put” to me.

[trader220]

Of course its all in theory!

Vols just seem kind of low to me, I would rather just berry pick as the market goes down then buy too high because I picked up a couple bucks in premium on the way down.

Neither is the only "right" answer, just different versions of the same trade idea.

[JMS935]

Ironically it’s also how I used to trade too.

I would frequently be long a sh|tload of the underlying futures and still be short a bunch of downside puts as well. I’m a former grain options trader, and when those futures broke, volatility tended to as well.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by JMS935

Ironically it’s also how I used to trade too.

I would frequently be long a sh|tload of the underlying futures and still be short a bunch of downside puts as well. I’m a former grain options trader, and when those futures broke, volatility tended to as well.

I can't comment on the grain markets, I don't know how to price the futures and therefore I cannot price the options on the futures. I am sure there are costs to carry, move, deliver grain I know nothing about.

If you're trading any equity based derivatives you can stand there long each day but its not an easy way to make a living. The other kicker is the cost to carry long stock is easy to calculate and fairly stable. Since the options are on the equity and not the second derivative as in options on futures, the options already have the cost to carry everything you need priced in them. Then again if this were the old days and you could actually stand on a floor and trade as an options market maker you'd subscribe to the old mantra that calls and puts are really the same thing and you can adjust your delta to be anything you like. You're either long or short premium, put or call is meaningless.

On the other hand, I think it was 1997 or 1998, I traded DELL as a single listed option in Philly. Crowded pit with tons of volume. I was pretty much long delta the entire year and it worked out pretty darn well. Paper bought calls and sold puts day after day. We would stand there and buy the puts from them and sell the calls the calls to them, and buy a truck load of stock, easy money. Everyone was happy. All that public paper did okay, the stock went up and up, we all made a killing taking the other side of their trades.

Sorry I am just waxing nostalgic for the old days.

[JMS935]

I’m referring to the old days, I was a pit trader. I was almost always exclusively short premium.

[robertmark]

Seeing as I'm a premium seller, I would have to sell a call, would they be available on the car market. Buying premium barely ever works for me. I certainly wouldn't be a put seller at these lofty levels. A 911SC just sold on BAT for $57,000 before buyers premium.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by robertmark

Seeing as I'm a premium seller, I would have to sell a call, would they be available on the car market. Buying premium barely ever works for me. I certainly wouldn't be a put seller at these lofty levels. A 911SC just sold on BAT for $57,000 before buyers premium.

Coming from the days when 20 in the VIX was considered dreadfully low I find it hard to be a premium seller these days in the equity markets. The proliferation of ETF's has really hammered the volatility in the market.

[robertmark]

Originally Posted by trader220

Coming from the days when 20 in the VIX was considered dreadfully low I find it hard to be a premium seller these days in the equity markets. The proliferation of ETF's has really hammered the volatility in the market.

You are correct on that front. However, there is always premium to be sold somewhere. I love selling puts on good dividend payers. If/when it gets put to me, I sell calls against it while collecting the dividends. Good opportunity in utilities and pharmaceuticals. Man, how did we get here from Porsche talk? Did I cause this??? lol

[trader220]

Vols in the utilities are so low there is almost no premium. Similar in the big pharma.

What's funny is looking at the price of the AMZN atm straddle that expires tomorrow with earnings today. Now that's some serious premium dollars. The 1722.5 straddle went out at about 85 bucks today. Just think you could have sold 10 straddles and taken in $85k in premium. The stocks around 1730 now after earnings so the straddle is worth $7.5 intrinsically, and it expires tomorrow. EZ money right?

[robertmark]

Originally Posted by trader220

Vols in the utilities are so low there is almost no premium. Similar in the big pharma.

What's funny is looking at the price of the AMZN atm straddle that expires tomorrow with earnings today. Now that's some serious premium dollars. The 1722.5 straddle went out at about 85 bucks today. Just think you could have sold 10 straddles and taken in $85k in premium. The stocks around 1730 now after earnings so the straddle is worth $7.5 intrinsically, and it expires tomorrow. EZ money right?

The problem with Amzn, tesla, nflx, particularly with straddles, even strangles, is that you can easily get your face ripped off. However, selling a five lot atm put in ED, or Pfe, can easily net you $1.00 per contract, or $500.00 Is it a lot of premium, no, but, if you can create 3-5% per month, that annualizes out pretty good. It's a better bet than the financial planner who puts you into products that make him $$$$$$$$$ even though you lose your A$$.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by robertmark

The problem with Amzn, tesla, nflx, particularly with straddles, even strangles, is that you can easily get your face ripped off. However, selling a five lot atm put in ED, or Pfe, can easily net you $1.00 per contract, or $500.00 Is it a lot of premium, no, but, if you can create 3-5% per month, that annualizes out pretty good. It's a better bet than the financial planner who puts you into products that make him $$$$$$$$$ even though you lose your A$$.

Robert, I was an options floor market maker for 20 plus years, I made markets off floor in currency derivatives for years too, trust me I get it. I don't use a financial planner for anything related to the US equity markets.

Looking at your strategy, lets use 4% return to represent your 3 to 5% per month. 4% per month times 12 months is 48% return. Lets be realistic, no one is making 48% return selling premium. If I look at your call on PFE and I look at the 1 month option which expires on March 1st. The at the money put, stocks at 42.5 so the 42.5 put, the closing bid was .69 cents, so you can't even sell a 1 month put for a buck, in fact its barely over 2/3rds of a buck. Statistically speaking you're going to get assigned 50% of the time on that put (at the money .5 delta) So you're not even going to collect your 69 cents half the time. ED was a little better, you could have sold the 1 month at the money put for a buck. Then again its a higher priced stock so that bucks not a great a return.

I haven't done the math but I would say statistically you're going to get your face ripped off more often selling the at the money PFE 1 month put then you are selling 1 AMZN pre earnings 1 day straddle. Do that 4 times a year. The straddle at 85 bucks implies a 5% move either way, anything less and you win.

The biggest difference is the numbers are so much smaller on PFE and ED it wont feel like you're getting your faec ripped off when you're wrong. The percentages will tell a different story.

Either way you're going to end up owning a truck load of those stocks trying to sell puts for a buck.

I am not knocking you, its just that having so many years experience, I've had the chance to do the math a few more times then most people.

[robertmark]

Originally Posted by trader220

Robert, I was an options floor market maker for 20 plus years, I made markets off floor in currency derivatives for years too, trust me I get it. I don't use a financial planner for anything related to the US equity markets.

Looking at your strategy, lets use 4% return to represent your 3 to 5% per month. 4% per month times 12 months is 48% return. Lets be realistic, no one is making 48% return selling premium. If I look at your call on PFE and I look at the 1 month option which expires on March 1st. The at the money put, stocks at 42.5 so the 42.5 put, the closing bid was .69 cents, so you can't even sell a 1 month put for a buck, in fact its barely over 2/3rds of a buck. Statistically speaking you're going to get assigned 50% of the time on that put (at the money .5 delta) So you're not even going to collect your 69 cents half the time. ED was a little better, you could have sold the 1 month at the money put for a buck. Then again its a higher priced stock so that bucks not a great a return.

I haven't done the math but I would say statistically you're going to get your face ripped off more often selling the at the money PFE 1 month put then you are selling 1 AMZN pre earnings 1 day straddle. Do that 4 times a year. The straddle at 85 bucks implies a 5% move either way, anything less and you win.

The biggest difference is the numbers are so much smaller on PFE and ED it wont feel like you're getting your faec ripped off when you're wrong. The percentages will tell a different story.

Either way you're going to end up owning a truck load of those stocks trying to sell puts for a buck.

I am not knocking you, its just that having so many years experience, I've had the chance to do the math a few more times then most people.

Always appreciate someone else's knowledge. Always something to learn. My examples in Pfe and Ed, were not based on todays strike prices or a March 1 expiration, but trades I have put on in the recent past. I sell premium only in the monthly's so I have good liquidity. I always put on trades with at least 45 dte. To put on a March 1 trade would only give me a 28 dte, of course that wouldn't pay you anything. I stay out of earnings, along with the fang stock's, because although I'm not pretty, I need my face. Do it the TastyTrade way, and stay the hell away from financial advisors!!! Sorry if there are any Financial planners reading.

[Mocker]

Originally Posted by trader220

Coming from the days when 20 in the VIX was considered dreadfully low I find it hard to be a premium seller these days in the equity markets. The proliferation of ETF's has really hammered the volatility in the market.

Don't worry, it'll come back.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by robertmark

Always appreciate someone else's knowledge. Always something to learn. My examples in Pfe and Ed, were not based on todays strike prices or a March 1 expiration, but trades I have put on in the recent past. I sell premium only in the monthly's so I have good liquidity. I always put on trades with at least 45 dte. To put on a March 1 trade would only give me a 28 dte, of course that wouldn't pay you anything. I stay out of earnings, along with the fang stock's, because although I'm not pretty, I need my face. Do it the TastyTrade way, and stay the hell away from financial advisors!!! Sorry if there are any Financial planners reading.

The regular March 43 day at the money puts are .79 bid, that would also skew all cycles. PFE

I am not knocking what you're saying I am just pointing out its not possible to produce the kinds of % returns you mentioned.

There is nothing wrong with selling some puts on stocks you'd like to own a low prices. Either you buy the stock lower or you pick up a few dimes and quarters. You just dont get to buy the stock even lower or you dont participate in any rally, in return you get your premium. It's a reasonable way to buy stocks but I would not call it a strategy to make 3 to 5% a month.

[robertmark]

I didn’t write those are my only underlying’s. And I’m not claiming to get returns like that every month. The only reason your amazon straddle looks good at this moment is because it moved by less than 1% on earnings. And anyone following the markets knows that’s not normal. Doing a handful of huge and dangerous trades like you suggest, is financial suicide. And that is a certainty!!!!

[trader220]

Originally Posted by robertmark

I didn’t write those are my only underlying’s. And I’m not claiming to get returns like that every month. The only reason your amazon straddle looks good at this moment is because it moved by less than 1% on earnings. And anyone following the markets knows that’s not normal. Doing a handful of huge and dangerous trades like you suggest, is financial suicide. And that is a certainty!!!!

I wasn't suggesting anyone ever sell premium in AMZN and I didn't short the straddle in AMZN either. I was just laughing at the dollar value of the premium in the straddle for a 1 day option. When the stock is trading at 1700 bucks the shear dollar value of the premiums is comical.

I am not knocking your strategy either, there is room in the market for every strategy.