Valuation Trend and BAT influence?

[917_Langheck]

Ive been watching a certain wheel set for sale in the FS\WTB section because of a particular ploy being used - now there is a second one, so this may get even more interesting - and I wanted to see what the alleged BAT valuation - used as the hook - looked like in comparison to the price being asked.

So, I sorted through all the same size wheel sets sold on the platform and plotted their sold price along the time line (8 Jan 18 to 8 Aug 22). For interest, and to see of there was any pattern, I also kept data on seller, buyer, refinisher / unrestored original / used status, and any uniqueness such as originally GP white, or chromed. Unfortunately, the total data set appears to be too small for a statistical significance to be seen in any of the particular data. If, say, all the wheels were original, refinished by Weidman, or Nguyen only, then there may be some correlations to look to, but those didn't appear to be an influencing variable. I did, however, look to see what the Dow was doing for the same period - an unrealistic model of the market I know, but it does influence how people think of their wealth status, and thus their willingness to spend.





Given the charts I wouldn't say the ask for the wheels are out of line with the BAT market place, but the question to be asked is, what is the value on the PP market? Seeing that they haven't sold (and this is not, nor is it intended to be a dig at the seller), and that there has been a softening of the BAT price since the initial ask, it seems that asking BAT prices on PP is not a viable option, at least for this specific product.

BTW, there is no particular point to this exercise, it was just something to do at the end of the day.

[Mehoff]

Every single one of the high point auctions sold to the same buyer. Remove auctions that buyer participated in to get a better grasp on where true market value is.

[Cobalt]

There are many markets for these cars and parts. I have seen private sales far exceed BaT although the quality was better as well. I have also seen some very nice cars and parts sell for far less than some of the junk I see sell. i don't think you can quantify these markets as the private vs BaT vs forum markets are all slightly different and what might sell high on one might not sell as high on the other or higher.

BTW I have been buying used parts for years and I have seen some parts you couldn't get rid of selling at $120 now fetch multiple thousands so go figure.

[Flewaway27]

They are many markets for this cars and parts.. I totally agree with that

[917_Langheck]

Updated trend line with a recent sale datum.



I did consider smoothing the line by eliminating certain high points, but that would by like hiding the irrational exuberance of the stock market as it was before it was taken over by high-speed computers executing marginal gains.

There are many markets indeed, many of which don't see the light of day. If I can extract the data for other formats that would be useful as a broader analysis, however, this exercise was really about certain individuals conflating results in one marketplace (bat) with another marketplace (pelican), which does not operate under similar structures, and expecting the same returns. Additionally, I dropped in the Big Board as a sort of control given its expectation by "the public" to operate as a nominal market place reflective of the state of economy and life market - it doesn't necessarily, as pointed to above, but that is a different discussion.

[roblav]

I personally believe that the better correlation is to Fed money printing.

[917_Langheck]

Could be.