Will the strong dollar (vs. euro and yen) bring more classic p-cars to the US?

ard · 09-23-2022, 01:17 PM

Idle Friday afternoon musings to be sure and equally certainly I am not a "playa"

in the space.

"King dollar" is at a 25-year high against the Yen at a 20-year high against the Euro. That makes buying cars in those markets "cheaper" when paid in dollars. I wonder whether there will be a noticeable uptick in cars coming (back) to the US. 5-7 years ago when the Euro was particularly strong against the dollar a number of cars were being bought by European buyers, although there likely were other contributing factors like finding cars in sunbelt and western states that weren't driven on salty roads.

There have been enough cars, notably 964 Flachbaus and 993 GT2s of Japanese origin that show up at the Monterey auctions and other big events that a further strengthening in the dollar against the yen may not change that dynamic but I'd have to believe that some cars re-imported to Europe may be(come) candidates for re-re-importation to the US.

Tangentially, there are reports of an uptick in the share of US buyers for real estate in parts of Europe and real estate isn't exactly "portable" and often one order of magnitude larger commitment than most 911s, but I mention this as there appears to be evidence of buyers leveraging dollar strength to acquire toys.

fisher22 · 09-23-2022, 03:33 PM

I've been watching the Dollar against Euro daily. Indeed, this is a perfect time to travel to Europe, or simply buy anything valued in Euros with dollars. It's like getting a 20% discount from what we all knew.

juanbenae · juanbenae's Garage

would shipping and getting it US legal make it a wash at this point?

too many cars going the other way to europe and asia. the guy who bought my old Spec911 racer sold it to a guy that had it shipped to australia in 2018 or so.

fisher22 · 09-23-2022, 04:05 PM

Funny, I just sold a ‘70s classic to someone in Australia last Wednesday! He was more than happy to pay shipping and didn’t even bargain with me on price. I didn’t advertise anywhere but US, but his friend here in Cali found me.

Matt Monson · 09-23-2022, 04:31 PM

I bought a JDM import last year (not Porsche) and will buy some more next year if the value holds. Just need to wait on the 25 year rule to get to some different cars.

I’m buying a bunch of Porsche parts out of Europe, for my business.

I could see effecting the collector car market up over a $1/4 Million, but I’m not sure the deals will be good enough for lesser cars. They have historically been more expensive for AC cars since they got fewer of them. But I guess we will see.

fisher22 · 09-23-2022, 05:01 PM

Stock up for sure. Although world inflation is slightly higher than US 9-10%. So right now we’re paying that. Gotta weigh it all out.

mattC2993 · 09-24-2022, 05:56 AM

I believe they pay a large VAT tax when they import which explains the higher prices over there and why they don't come back. Shipping overseas isn't overly expensive. However its my experience that most people don't want to go to the trouble of importing lesser cars. My 356A coupe went to France as there was little interest from those down south. Of all the cars I have sold its the one I regret some days.

NYNick · NYNick's Garage

BTW, the Canadian dollar is also weak. Much closer to home if there are any cars up there for sale.

fisher22 · 09-24-2022, 05:34 PM

Looking there. I’ll let you know if they’re serious. As soon as too many people seem interested, they start raising prices.

NYNick · NYNick's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by fisher22

Looking there. I’ll let you know if they’re serious. As soon as too many people seem interested, they start raising prices.

Their dollar is weakening daily. Canadians are much more aware of the USD/CAD exchange than Americans.

Matt Monson · 09-25-2022, 04:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattC2993

I believe they pay a large VAT tax when they import which explains the higher prices over there and why they don't come back.

Not really true unless the car went over in the last few years. The first run up in long nose values started back 15 years ago. This was when the Euro was super strong and a nice S was still under $50k. For a number of years, the ports were littered with outgoing cars. Not only were they buying nice long nose cars en masse, but they were buying up G body cars long before we considered them collectible. VAT on a $25k car back then is inconsequential when compared to a $60k one today. Those cars that were already on the Continent a decade or more have appreciated “naturally” as worldwide price has gone up, but it’s a different market than ours, with them still having fewer cars available than we do because we got the lion’s share on them to start.

fisher22 · 09-25-2022, 06:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYNick

Their dollar is weakening daily. Canadians are much more aware of the USD/CAD exchange than Americans.

Yes, I’m always impressed when foreigners know the precise exchange rate to the dollar. I only keep up with it when traveling, or considering a purchase or sale.

Unobtanium-inc · 09-25-2022, 09:29 AM

This normally only works for super high dollar cars. Your average 911 or 356 the math isn't always there once you factor in shipping and import taxes. Not to mention that in Europe cars go for more not just because of the Euro but because of less supply so while it may be cheaper to buy a car in Europe with dollars compared to 5 years ago, it might still be cheaper to buy the same car in the US, given that we have more supply.
So you will see some Carrera GT's coming from Japan and an odd 959 from Europe, but don't expect to see containers of 75 911's and the like.

---Adam

mattC2993 · 09-25-2022, 07:08 PM

I've been looking to buy (lower end cars) but prices are pretty stiff up here. From what I have seen many Canadians usually price their cars based on US car auction prices and factor in the exchange rate. I wouldn't expect many bargains up here. The possibility of me going down south and bringing a car back like I did 10-15 years ago is non existent now.

MadeofOak · 07:34 AM

The Usd has tempted me to sell my 84 Targa. Just a win win for everyone, I can sell cheaper and travel etc and someone gets a deal. Shipping and export to the US is trivial, we are the #1 trading partners and rarely does it take more than 10 minutes at the border.

Edit, Nla its too awesome to sell for so cheap!

maninblack · 10-31-2022, 09:23 PM

Per my Int'l shipping contact I've used for years. In 2022 cars coming to the U.S.from Europe are up 3x while cars going from the U.S. to Europe are down 60%. Tells me that his business so closely follows the exchange rate that it dictates where they advertise.

DaytonaCoupe66 · 11-01-2022, 05:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattC2993

I've been looking to buy (lower end cars) but prices are pretty stiff up here. From what I have seen many Canadians usually price their cars based on US car auction prices and factor in the exchange rate. I wouldn't expect many bargains up here. The possibility of me going down south and bringing a car back like I did 10-15 years ago is non existent now.

It's becoming common for sellers to quote BAT pricing in their Cdn ads; it's not a realistic benchmark north of the 49th unless the example is pristine. Many sellers of just about everything from cars to equipment to junk in our neck of the woods are asking ridiculous money, with a disinclination to negotiate. You've got to be ready as decently priced stuff sells instantly in this post Covid environment.

MadeofOak · 11-09-2022, 08:56 AM

BAT is an actual market, Kijiji lowballers and wannabees are just broke dicks with too much time on their hands. Sellers take enough abuse from these lowlifes. Its good to see people push back and if you own a 911 and you are on a 911 website, why wouldn't you want to uphold the value?

Makes zero sense to me, people literally want it both ways. Cheap to buy AND expensive when they sell lol

DaytonaCoupe66 · 11-10-2022, 07:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadeofOak

BAT is an actual market, Kijiji lowballers and wannabees are just broke dicks with too much time on their hands. Sellers take enough abuse from these lowlifes. Its good to see people push back and if you own a 911 and you are on a 911 website, why wouldn't you want to uphold the value?

Makes zero sense to me, people literally want it both ways. Cheap to buy AND expensive when they sell lol

It's human nature to look at the world through the lens that is most advantageous.

BAT isn't the only market; it is high profile and publicly accessible. People make their own local markets through actual sales, or if none, the market is to high. We have 10% of the US population, so unless an offering is extremely unique or exceptional, there is going to be less demand here. The supply of 930s in Canada has been listed at values above the actual market, otherwise much of the inventory wouldn't sit as it has been for years. As an owner I like the numbers I see, but also think they are unrealistic. Evidently buyers do too.