Used Car Values

[NYNick]

Please, this isn't about politics so don't go all PARF on me. This is Marketplace Discussion after all.

With the price of NEW imported cars set to go up by 25%, that could mean a new $80K car could then be priced to sell for $100K. That sure would make a gently used car from last year of the same make and model look like a bargain, assuming it had depreciated 20-25% just being driven off the lot....maybe $60K now?

So now I could buy the same gently used car for $60K versus a new one for $100K? That's a big delta.

To me that sounds like a great opportunity for people/dealers to mark up late model imported used cars dramatically, maybe even to the original MSRP? How long do you think it'll take for the used car market to figure this out?

Will my 2024 X5 be more desirable all of a sudden since the new ones will be so much more expensive? Your late model 911? I wonder.

[Matt Monson]

Well, it’s not even that simple. BMW makes the X series vehicles on North Carolina. Toyota is making cars in CA. Subaru is making cars in Indiana and Hondas are made in Ohio. And all of them have a mix of parts and subassemblies from countries all over the world. The cost of cars is going to go up, but it won’t be universal or just be a net uptick of some published tariff percentage.

Use car prices did actually go up during Covid, when no cars were being made. It could happen again but I don’t expect it to be immediately and most people are skeptical that the tariffs are even going to be a long term thing.

[NYNick]

Yeah, I wasn't that specific about foreign cars that are made in the USA not being affected, but you get my drift. I think the used ones that are still made outside the US will go up. 911's are a good example along with some MB's etc.

[Mocker]

Hate to be pedantic, but BMW's plant is just outside of Greenville, South Carolina, not North Carolina.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Mocker

Hate to be pedantic, but BMW's plant is just outside of Greenville, South Carolina, not North Carolina.

Meh. Shoulder shrug. Not really relevant to my point.

[Math]

if some cars go up 25% in price, all cars will go up 20% in price.

[Macroni]

I anticipate used inventory to gain value.

[Winter]

Originally Posted by Macroni

I anticipate used inventory to gain value.

This ^

Here’s a (Colorado) data point:

https://coloradosun.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-automobiles-reciprocal-trade-war/

If new cars are more expensive, those in the used car marketplace (sellers and buyers) will experience increased demand in the marketplace and prices for used vehicles will increase. Will you be able to get MSRP for your BMW? I dunno, that will be interesting to watch.

I think that the enthusiast market is a bit different from the general automotive market, as nice examples of desirable vehicles have always seemed to trend higher even when the general market softens.

[Cobalt]

All the info is in federal document
ADJUSTING IMPORTS OF AUTOMOBILES AND AUTOMOBILE
PARTS INTO THE UNITED STATES
10908

A riveting 12 page read.

It doesn't matter where the car is built as much as what % of the parts were made in the US. This includes parts as well which will hurt as they will be hit with a 25% tariff.

So if 50% of the car or its parts were made in the US than the tariff will apply to 50% of the vehicle cost. Whether the car manufacturers use this to calculate the new MSRP or what they apply to it will remain to be seen.

Good news is the tariff does not apply to cars over 25 years of age so those importing older cars shouldn't have any issues but that too remains to be seen.

On a side note 2 weeks ago I ran my 13 Ford Raptor through Carvana to see what they would offer. The truck was $48k new and they offered me a little over $20k with a retail value at around $29k. I just received a $500 increase to that offer 2 days ago and I expect it will go up. Glad I picked up my 23 Macan and my replacement truck these last 2 months. I suspect we will see a rise in used car pricing just as we did during Covid.

[Matt Monson]

A big variable that’s not getting a ton of weight here is demand. Many are predicting stagflation. During Covid it was a supply side problem. If there is supply, but high cost, many will defer the purchase of a consumer durable like a car. And doubly so if it’s a luxury item like a weekend car. I’m not convinced we are going to see 5-10 year old Porsches go up in price.

[FA-18C]

A close friend is hot on the trail of a 23 or 24 Macan and he is finding with less than 6K miles he has his pick at around $61K. They have a 24 with 1K miles that was clipped in the front and repaired down to $58K. A 2015 base 911 started at $67K a month ago and is at $58K now. So the data here reflects the notion that it is tough sledding and few are rushing out to buy current stock to avoid a tariff that might impact some import cars until there is an injection of rational thinking. No telling when that will happen.

[NYNick]

The (stock) markets and car markets are perplexed. Nobody really knows where any of this is going.

We are very early in the game here. Still, I see the imported NEW car market suffering and late model USED imported cars, especially high value models, gaining value later in the year.

That said, even the economists disagree.

[Cobalt]

I'm, glad I picked up my 23 Macan GTS with 10k miles. Heavily optioned $98k sticker. Factory CPO'd for $71k 2 months ago. Heck of a fun ride and far better in most every respect than the 18 Macan GTS I sold. $61k for a base is IMO a bit pricey I hope it was nicely optioned.

Yet a 964 C2 Tip sold for $114,500 all in the other day. That should be a record high for a Tiptronic c2.

[Matt Monson]

Audi just suspended import of new cars. So it looks like Audis will be going up.