Excellence Market Update on Early 911's

Long Nose · 03-26-2007, 10:38 AM

OK - so the latest issue of Excellence has the market update on early 911's - What do you think?

How accurate do you think this report is?

I read somewhere on this board that a person should expect to pay 20% more than the Excellence market evaluation.

Is the Excellence market evaluation too low?

Jay H · 03-26-2007, 05:31 PM

Bruce is getting numbers based on actual sales amounts. There has to be some validity to those numbers, otherwise why publish them? Sure, asking prices tend to be very high and could be 20 to 40 percent over what Bruce has been publishing. But, asking prices are just that, asking prices.

Also, time of year, geographical location and general economic conditions come into play and may skew the ranges Bruce is publishing as to what people may be perceiving in the current market. But, he still has to publish some numbers, so you'll get an average range based on an entire year's data.

blau911 · 04:46 AM

Jay,
I have to disagree to some extent with your belief that Anderson's numbers are based upon real sales amounts. Many people declare a lesser value on the bill of sale on older cars in order to pay less state sales tax. Older car sales, and especially older Porsches are very difficult for a State DMV to dispute when someone submits a reduced bill of sale. I have to assume that Bruce Anderson is simply taking numbers provided by state DMV's around the country and establishing an average.
Take Anderson's figures and add 25-40% to compensate for the fudge factor.

GothingNC · 03-27-2007, 03:51 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by blau911
Jay,
I have to disagree to some extent with your belief that Anderson's numbers are based upon real sales amounts. Many used people under report Bill of Sale on older cars in order to reduce the state sales tax. Porsche sales, especially older ones in which it is very difficult for a State DMV to dispute. I have to assume that Bruce Anderson is simply taking numbers provided by state DMV's around the country and establishing an average.
Take Anerson's figures and add 25-40% to compensate for the fudge factor.

I don't have to worry about that problem here in NC if I purchase a used car from a private seller, the tax I pay is based upon book value determined by DMV and my 82 Targa was valued at $4,500 = $135 tax

The lady at DMV could not believe that I paid more then $5,000 for the car. I checked the value of a 72 and she said it was around $2,500

I would have had to pay the full 3% sales tax on the full sales price if it was purchased through a dealer.

Sunroof · 03-27-2007, 10:02 AM

Being an owner of a 1973.5T and anxiously awaiting the Excellence Market update issue, it blows me away to see how every year for the last several years the long hoods are holding up in value. This time Bruce says that the longhoods are at the 356 collectibility stage, something I never thought I would see for at least another ten years!!!!
If a decent 1973T is running from $17,500 (good) to $23,500 (excellent), I am elated.....

I will assume then that prices are driven by demand and since the supply is getting more limited and the demand greater, its no place but up!! Ya gotta love it..............

Bob
73.5T - Sepia of course

Jay H · 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by blau911
Jay,
I have to disagree to some extent with your belief that Anderson's numbers are based upon real sales amounts. Many people declare a lesser value on the bill of sale on older cars in order to pay less state sales tax. Older car sales, and especially older Porsches are very difficult for a State DMV to dispute when someone submits a reduced bill of sale. I have to assume that Bruce Anderson is simply taking numbers provided by state DMV's around the country and establishing an average.
Take Anderson's figures and add 25-40% to compensate for the fudge factor.

Point well taken.

My brother and I have purchased 3 911's over the past year. I've sent Bruce the actual transaction prices paid for the 1970 911 T, 1983 911SC and 1984 3.2 Carrera that was bought along with an acurate description and actual price we paid.

So, there are at least 3 actual data points in Bruce's numbers, if he chose to use the data I sent him.

I wonder how many other people send him the actual transaction price...

Komenda Fan · Komenda Fan's Garage

I certainly think a lot of sellers are in dream land when it comes to the value of their cars, and I find these are the people who typically question Bruce's opinions, but then again, I would say that, as someone who is a buyer at the moment, wouldn't I?

Sunroof · 03-27-2007, 06:45 PM

Dream Land?!

Its all in the marketing my man! So many knock the prices of older 911's, but find one not restored and you will drop 30k+ for an engine and tranny rebuild, interior, bare metal paint (lets not forget the floor boards), rebuilt MFI or all new CIS components and on and on. So are you expecting to get one for a poultry sum? I admit that unless you have a pocket full of Franklin's, a well equipped garage, alot of time and talent on your hands and a buddy in the parts business, your going to pay the going rate for a very nice older 911. Its hard to find a deal on a nice 30 year old Porsche that has been well cared for or restored. So with that I agree with Bruce Anderson's pulse on the price ranges for the older longhoods. It is after all a Porsche.............and if I am comparing Triumphs, MG's, Fiats, Healey's, Alpines and Datsun Z's, dollar for dollar, pound for pound the Porsche will always hold its value..much stronger over these other cars of the same vintage.

My 1973.5T in Sepia Brown all restored will not go for less than 23K and thats a deal....

Bob

berettafan · 04-02-2007, 06:47 PM

I think some of the sweetheart deals being had out there are at the expense of sellers who take Excellence value updates as gospel.

donstevens · donstevens's Garage

Quote:

Originally posted by Jay H
Point well taken.

My brother and I have purchased 3 911's over the past year. I've sent Bruce the actual transaction prices paid for the 1970 911 T, 1983 911SC and 1984 3.2 Carrera that was bought along with an acurate description and actual price we paid.

.

How does one get in contact with Bruce Anderson?

Jay H · 04-16-2007, 07:10 PM

'excellence' mag lists the following contact info for Bruce Anderson:

technotes@excellence-mag dot com

PO Box 775
Plymouth, California 95669
Fax (209) 245-6356

For Market Update submissions, 'excellence' states the following email address:

sales@excellence-mag dot com

The mailing address for reader sales reports is the same as above.

Hope this helps,

Jay
90 964, 84 3.2

donstevens · donstevens's Garage

Thnks Jay. That helps a lot.

kucharskimb · 05-04-2007, 02:57 PM

I, too was a little surprised at how the values have continued to climb. And I would agree that you will easily exceed the $20K mark if you go about any advanced level of restoration. I would venture that I have $18 in total receipts--and I do 98% of my own labor!

When I asked my insurance company what value they had assigned to my car, they replied that in the event of an accident, they would use current market value. I would like to reference the Market update in Excellence.

Does that sound reasonable?

racer · 05-04-2007, 06:03 PM

Lets not forget.. Longhoods ARE 34-42 years old! Cripes that shocks me when i think about it like that. They better start approaching "356" like status soon. Yes, some are excellent examples and others are truly "beaten up"..just like a 356.

As a kid in the 1980s I recall seeing a handful of 356s at Drivers ed events. Now, I see a handful (ok, maybe 2 or 3 handfulls) of Long Hoods at DE events. Most are not stock. Many are converted to "race cars".

Not sure of my point, just that soon enough the SC/Carerra cars (at 18-29 years old currently) can't be far away from a resale boost based upon age alone.

Maybe the real next longhood are the long slighted,and perhaps even more rare, mid year cars. "modern looks" without all the weight or horsepower

sbmackie · 05-06-2007, 09:22 PM

Google Bruce Anderson. You'll get a hit. I've spoken to the man. Very forthcoming with how he values a car. I also sent him a purchase price on my SC with a description.

sbm

JeffreyNMemphis · 05-08-2007, 12:15 PM

I don't think Bruce is collecting values from DMV reported sales or sales on Ebay. He does note the occasional Jackson Barrett sale but clearly states on the prologue to his actual sales list that results are not taken from auctions.

I believe that his data points come from readers sending information post sale.

Similar thinking to the posts above; if you take a rusted roller for $5k, add an engine, transmission, carbs, interior, body work, sheet metal replacement, paint, tires, brakes, brake lines, fuel lines, fuel cell, exhaust, air/heat, radio? etc. You can see how that 35 year old car in good condition is worth $25k.

I can see a point coming soon for the Mid-Years and the Carrera's to start holding and increasing value. Good 911s are going to become rare. Many are going to disappear because of the economics. Case in point: 1980 SC that needs brakes, brake lines, tires, wheel alignment and leaks oil with 120k on the motor. Engine has never been opened. Seller wants $10k. Add $3k for tires, brakes and wheel alignment, $5k for top end rebuild (very optimistic DIY), Clutch? Transmission rebuild, CV boots, suspension? Now you would have $20k in the car (conservative estimates). Is the car worth 20k? What is the interior and body condition? If one of us does not buy it and rescue it, the dismantler will get it for $8k. Pure economic rationality would send a lot of these cars to the bone yard.

GothingNC · 05-08-2007, 12:19 PM

Jeff,

I agree.
The sum of the parts will be worth more then the whole car.
That's why salvage yards catering to a popular make/marque seem to do very well.

berettafan · 05-09-2007, 05:21 AM

I think the argument of value after restoration minus cost of restoration = a negative number doesn't really matter when there are not enough GOOD cars to supply the market. If 10 people want a nice SC and there are only 4 available somebody (maybe not all 6) is going to be 'restoring' an SC.

will that person be upside down? yup. will they care? possibly not. we're not talking about Honda Accords here.

GothingNC · 05-09-2007, 05:50 AM

I was reading a real old article from Panorama when they were reviewing the 69 911S.

Said it was a great car at the time but it would be impractical for drivers on the East coast due to all the traffic and recommended for a better value and drive-ability the 911T or 912.

JeffreyNMemphis · 05-09-2007, 06:45 AM

I agree with you to a point... Will the person doing the restoration be upside down? We won't know that till the car is sold. If I spent the above mentioned $20k, you better believe that it is not for sale for $10k. And, if I was pretty savvy about shopping around for my parts and services, my $10k restoration would produce something of lasting value. We do see SCs for sale at $20k plus... Who is to say what these will be worth in five years or ten years.

Anyone buying that $10k SC and putting in the money required to have a nice car will probably be hanging on to it. On the other hand, some people are going to buy $10k SCs and milk the snot out of them, keep it running with chewing gum and baling wire, and then dismantler gets it.